Human activities have led to increase in carbon dioxide emissions, and carbon tax is one of the main policy tools for reducing global emissions. This paper constructs nine scenarios considering ...different carbon tax rates and the different taxable industries to analyze the impact of Carbon Tax System (CTS) on energy, environment and the economy. We find that the negative impact of CTS on GDP is acceptable, and the maximum scenario will not exceed 0.5%. If carbon taxes are levied on energy-intensive enterprises, the impact on carbon emissions is also relatively small, even if the carbon tax rate is relatively high. Higher carbon tax rate will result in higher CO2 emission reduction and higher marginal CO2 emission reduction of CTS. The carbon tax rate follows the "law of increasing marginal emission reduction". We also argue that the focus of taxation should be on energy enterprises. It is only in this way that the efficiency of the energy market can be fully implemented to conserve energy and reduce emissions. This paper suggests that China should adopt CTS that simultaneously imposes a higher tax on energy companies and energy-intensive enterprises. This will maximize emissions reductions and have only a small impact on GDP.
•The negative impact of CTS on GDP is acceptable, and the maximum scenario will not exceed 0.5%.•The focus of carbon taxation should be on energy enterprises.•The carbon tax rate follows the "law of increasing marginal emission reduction".•China should adopt carbon tax policy that simultaneously imposes a high tax rate on energy companies and energy-intensive enterprises.
In north China, many rural and urban residents still use coal for heating in winter. However, such method would result in a large amount of GHG emissions. China intends to change the heating method ...of its citizens from coal burning to electric heating to save energy, reduce emissions, which is called the project of Coal to Electricity (CtE). A dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model is applied to analyze the real effect if the project is widely promoted in China. We found that CtE project is effective in reducing SO2 and NOx emission than CO2 emissions. In essence, energy substitution is not energy-saving, so the contribution to CO2 reduction of CtE project is limited. There is a certain co-benefit between CtE project and other energy saving policies (new energy generation, improving heating efficiency and building energy saving etc.). The findings indicate that single CtE policy can only bring better air quality. However, with other energy saving policies, CtE project can not only bring NOx and SO2 reduction, but also lead to less CO2 emissions and more convenient life. Multiple emission reduction measures are suggested to maximize the reduction effects of these policies.
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•CtE project is an effective way to reduce SO2 and NOx emissions than CO2 emissions.•Coal consumption of industries may increase due to CtE project.•Some energy saving policies can increase CO2 reduction potential of CtE project.•The subsidy of insulation layer is as important as that of electric heaters.
Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) may be the effective way for CO2 reduction to mitigate global warming. However, less research has been conducted on ETS quota decline scheme. This paper establishes 6 ...countermeasure scenarios with different carbon right allocation decline schemes to explore the impact of these schemes on energy, economy and the environment. The results show that the emission-based ETS quota decline scheme will motivate the society to pay more attention to emission reduction. However, the scheme based on CI will make the society to focus more on resources allocation, which means that it will result to more emission and less Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but higher social welfare compared to the emission-based scenarios. The higher annual decline factor will increase the industry's pressure to cut emissions. This will cause less social welfare, GDP, sectorial output and fluctuation in commodity price. Moreover, we find that as the government fines are higher than ETS price, industries are reluctant to raise prices when they trade for cost minimization, especially those industries that incur government fine.
•CO2 emissions in the context of ETS with China's patterns will not reach a peak before 2030.•The quota decline scheme based on emission will make the society to focus on emission reduction.•The quota decline scheme based on emission intensity will be helpful for resources allocation.•Enterprises are reluctant to raise prices when they trade for cost minimization.
•Cumulative CO2 emission will reduce by 12.05 Bt-CO2 in ETS market during 2017–2030.•The coverage of one industry will directly raise commodity price.•Electricity and construction have the highest ...emission reduction costs.•The more industries are covered, the more stable the emission trading market.•Balancing the supply and demand in the market can contribute to effective carbon market.
Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is one of the most effective measures of emission reduction. However, few literatures have focused on the impact of the industry coverage in ETS. This paper constructs a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the choice of the coverage industries in China’s national ETS in 2017, and explore the impacts of ETS and the most suitable coverage industry for China. The results show that CO2 emission will reach its peak and stabilize by 2030 to meet the goal of “Enhanced Actions on Climate Change: China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions”. The cumulative CO2 emission will reduce to 12.05 Bt-CO2 in ETS market during 2017–2030. Moreover, commodity prices will increase from 0.12 to 1.64% in different coverage scenarios. Carbon price can be guaranteed within a reasonable range if the rational choice of the Carbon Rights (CR) suppliers and demanders in ETS market is made by the government. This paper suggests that the industry covered in China’s ETS could imitate the patterns of EU Emissions Trading System (period I and period II) and Midwest Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord in the U.S., or seek another option to balance the demand and supply of CR in ETS market.
•A dynamic recursive multi-sector CGE model is applied for comprehensive analysis.•COVID-19 has a negative impact first on economy, then on energy system.•The COVID-19 reduces oil demand and price, ...limiting the development of renewables.•We should adjust the price gap between fossil and renewable in post-COVID-19 era.
In 2020, the world experienced several significant events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of international crude oil prices. Both have a great impact on a sustainable economy. Taking China as an example, we use a computable general equilibrium model with multi-sectors and multi-households and consider six different scenarios to simulate and evaluate the aggregate impacts of the pandemic and crude oil prices. We divide the impact of the pandemic into the changes of factor input and the changes of consumer preference and find that the decline of factor input is the leading cause of the economic downturn. The sharp drop in crude oil prices has a significant negative impact on the low-carbon economy. Although the pandemic has led to a decline in global carbon emissions, it is only because of the economic downturn. The epidemic situation and the change of oil price have double impacts on the economy, especially the sustainable economy. Adjusting the price gap between fossil energy and renewable energy (e.g., more stringent carbon pricing) and appropriate tax cuts on residents may be effective ways to alleviate the impact, which should be one of the environmental policies in the post-COVID-19 era.
•The mechanism on electricity sector can hardly affect GDP and CO2 emissions.•The impact of changing allocation on the aggregate economy is relatively small.•The allocation mechanism on electricity ...based on emission intensity is suggested.
Global warming has necessitated the quest for CO2 mitigation globally. Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is a market-oriented strategy which may be effective for CO2 mitigation. This study establishes a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the impact of different ETS quota allocation scheme on the electricity industry and determine the best choice of quota allocation scheme for the electricity industry in China. The research on China's carbon trading market may provide an important case for the global carbon trading market. The results show that different quota allocation schemes have impacts on electricity price, and there are some spillover effects to other industries. Higher Annual Decline Factor (ADF) will reduce carbon rights than lower ones. Changes in the quota allocation schemes of a single industry (electricity) can hardly affect aggregate GDP and CO2 emissions. Moreover, ETS quota allocation scheme in the electricity sector based on historical emission intensity could have better performance in commodity price, electricity supply, ETS price, GDP and social welfare. Thus, this paper suggests that the best choice of ETS quota allocation scheme in the electricity sector is the scheme that is based on historical emission intensity which ADF is 0.
China, as the world’s largest emitter, intends to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early to mitigate global change. Under this ...strategy, a dynamic, recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to analyze the economy, energy, and environment impact of CO
2
emission reduction policy based on 17 scenarios in China: carbon tax, emission trading scheme (ETS), and the mixed policy in different price level, in order to find out which kind of emission reduction strategy is more feasible. The results show that CO
2
emission in 2030 will be reduced with the implementation of tax, ETS and mixed policy, by 10–13 %, 12–14 %, and 18–28 %, respectively. From 2016 to 2030, China can reduce 18,338–24,156 Mt CO
2
through the implementation of mixed policy. Furthermore, relative to single policy, mixed policy has stronger effects on primary energy consumption cut, by 738–1124 Mtoe or 18–28 %, which will make CO
2
emissions reach a peak before 2030 and the peak emission is not greater than 12 billion tons which is in line with the reduction demand in China. Thus, the mixed policy is the most effective strategy so that mixed policy is recommended to parties included in Annex I in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol and other countries with large potential of emission reduction, while ETS is suggested to countries with low carbon emissions per capita which can balance economic development and CO
2
mitigation.
Earth fissures caused by tectonic forces, human activities, or both seriously threaten the safety of people's lives and properties. The Taiyuan Basin, a Cenozoic downfaulted basin located in the ...centre of the Fen-Wei Basin tectonic belt, in northwestern China, presents the ideal study area for a hazard assessment of earth fissures. A total of 104 earth fissures have been observed in the Taiyuan Basin, with a total length of approximately 128 km. In this paper, we proposed a probabilistic method for mapping earth fissure hazards by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the area under the curve (AUC), and the certainty factor model (CFM). Geomorphic units, geologic formations, active faults and land subsidence zones of the Taiyuan Basin were mapped in detail. Correlations between these factors and earth fissures were evaluated through spatial modelling in ArcGIS. The AUC was introduced into the AHP to weight each factor and thus, to derive an earth fissure susceptibility map. Finally, the modelled earth fissure susceptibility was compared with a digital inventory of earth fissures to develop a probability function and map the spatial variability in failure probability through the CFM. The study indicates that active faults have the greatest contribution to the generation of earth fissures. Earth fissures are prone to develop in the piedmont alluvial-diluvial clinoplain and the transitional zone near the geomorphic boundary. This mapping procedure can assist in making rational decisions regarding urban planning and infrastructure development in areas susceptible to earth fissures.
Nowadays, coal consumption is still dominated in China's energy structure, while China aggressively wants to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060. The substitution of coal consumption will ...be the first step to the goal. This paper simulates the scenarios of coal resource tax and investment in renewables by applying China Energy-Environment-Economy Analysis (CEEEA/CGE) model. The simulation results show the different mechanisms between the tax and the investment. In general, the impact of coal resource tax comes relatively early and is an effective way to reduce coal consumption in the short term. Renewable energy investment is a long-term, slow, and fundamental way to substitute coal consumption. However, for a long time, renewable energy should be the main driving force of carbon emission reduction. Consequently, we suggest that the process of coal substitution can be carried out through the way of “tax priority in the early stage and investment in the later stage”.
•Two kinds of policies are simulated: resource tax and renewable investment.•The impact mechanism of resource tax and renewable investment is different.•Tax is a quick re-act way for coal substitution, but lack of long-term capacity.•China should applies multiply ways to substitute coal consumption effectively.
Abstract
Carbon tax and some other policies are designed to reduce emissions; resource tax can raise the energy price from the supply side to achieve the purpose of emission mitigation. Based on ...previous studies, this paper abstracts mitigation policies into supply-control (resource tax as an example) and demand-control (carbon tax as an example). The effects of these policies have been divided into the direct and the indirect effects. A dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model is applied to simulate different impact path of the two policies. The research shows that if there is no foreign trade and the market is completely market-oriented, the effect of the demand control and the supply control may be equivalent. But this is not the real case. Under the same level of CO
2
emission, carbon tax can significantly reduce the energy demand of enterprises and restrain energy imports. However, resource tax can significantly increase domestic energy prices firstly, and then enterprises will be more willing to use cheaper imported energy. Regardless of energy security, relatively low energy use costs ease the economic costs of emission mitigation. Therefore, if every country in the world is required to reduce emissions compulsorily, resource tax may be a better policy of reducing emissions while obtaining “excess profits”.
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