Regional monitoring of the proportion of the population who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 is important to guide local management of the epidemic, but is difficult in the absence of regular ...nationwide serosurveys. We aimed to estimate in near real time the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2.
In this modelling study, we developed a method to reconstruct the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of infections being detected, using the joint analysis of age-stratified seroprevalence, hospitalisation, and case data, with deconvolution methods. We developed our method on a dataset consisting of seroprevalence estimates from 9782 participants (aged ≥20 years) in the two worst affected regions of France in May, 2020, and applied our approach to the 13 French metropolitan regions over the period March, 2020, to January, 2021. We validated our method externally using data from a national seroprevalence study done between May and June, 2020.
We estimate that 5·7% (95% CI 5·1–6·4) of adults in metropolitan France had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by May 11, 2020. This proportion remained stable until August, 2020, and increased to 14·9% (13·2–16·9) by Jan 15, 2021. With 26·5% (23·4–29·8) of adult residents having been infected in Île-de-France (Paris region) compared with 5·1% (4·5–5·8) in Brittany by January, 2021, regional variations remained large (coefficient of variation CV 0·50) although less so than in May, 2020 (CV 0·74). The proportion infected was twice as high (20·4%, 15·6–26·3) in 20–49-year-olds than in individuals aged 50 years or older (9·7%, 6·9–14·1). 40·2% (34·3–46·3) of infections in adults were detected in June to August, 2020, compared with 49·3% (42·9–55·9) in November, 2020, to January, 2021. Our regional estimates of seroprevalence were strongly correlated with the external validation dataset (coefficient of correlation 0·89).
Our simple approach to estimate the proportion of adults that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 can help to characterise the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemic dynamics, and the performance of surveillance in different regions.
EU RECOVER, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (Inserm).
Vaccination and COVID-19 Dynamics in Dialysis Patients El Karoui, Khalil; Hourmant, Maryvonne; Ayav, Carole ...
Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology,
03/2022, Letnik:
17, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Dialysis patients have a high mortality risk after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and an altered immunologic response to vaccines, but vaccine clinical effectiveness remains unknown in this ...population.
Using Bayesian multivariable spatiotemporal models, we estimated the association between vaccine exposure and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) severe infections (with hospital admission) in dialysis patients from simultaneous incidence in the general population. For dialysis patients, cases were reported within the French end-stage kidney disease REIN registry from March 11, 2020, to April 29, 2021, and vaccine exposure (first dose) was reported in weekly national surveys since January 2021. Cases in the general population were obtained from the national exhaustive inpatient surveillance system (SI-VIC database), and vaccination coverage (first dose) was obtained from the national surveillance system (VAC-SI database).
During the first wave, incidence in dialysis patients was approximately proportional to the general population. However, we showed a lower relative incidence for dialysis patients during the second wave (compared with that observed in nondialysis patients), suggesting an effect of prevention measures. Moreover, from the beginning of the vaccination rollout, incidence in dialysis patients was lower compared with predictions based on the first and second waves. Adding vaccination coverages in dialysis and nondialysis patients as predictors allowed the reported cases to be fit correctly (3685 predicted cases, 95% confidence interval, 3552 to 3816, versus 3620 reported). Incidence rate ratios were 0.37 (95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 0.71) for vaccine exposure in dialysis patients and 0.50 (95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.61) per 10% higher in vaccination coverage in the same-age general population, meaning that vaccine exposure in dialysis patients and the general population was independently associated with lower hospitalization rate of dialysis patients.
Our findings suggest that vaccination may yield a protective effect against severe forms of COVID-19 in dialysis patients, despite altered immunologic vaccine responses.
The severity of liver injury and clinical outcomes in lean individuals with NAFLD is a subject of debate and very few studies have been performed in the general population. The aim of this study was ...to compare subject characteristics and mortality between lean and nonlean NAFLD in a community setting.
The study population included 169,303 participants from the nationwide Constances cohort. Subjects with excessive alcohol consumption, viral hepatitis, or other liver diseases were excluded and 137,206 subjects were analyzed. The diagnosis of NAFLD and fibrosis was performed using the Fatty Liver Index and the Forns Index. The median follow-up was 3.58 years. The prevalence of NAFLD was 5.3% (95% CI: 5.2-5.4) in lean subjects, while 16.3% (95% CI: 15.7-16.8) of NAFLD subjects were lean. Despite their better metabolic profile, the prevalence of advanced fibrosis was significantly higher in lean than in nonlean NAFLD (3.7% vs. 1.7%, respectively, p < 0.01). Among NAFLD subjects and after adjustment for demographics, metabolic risk factors and lifestyle, lean status was associated with advanced fibrosis (OR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.20-1.65, p = 0.005), an increased risk of liver-related events (adjusted HR=5.84, 95% CI: 4.03-8.46), chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR=2.49, 95% CI: 1.49-4.16), and overall mortality (adjusted HR=3.01, 95% CI: 2.21-4.11). Liver-related events and overall mortality were related to the severity of fibrosis, both in lean and nonlean NAFLD subjects, whatever the usual risk factors.
This study in a large community-based cohort confirms that NAFLD in lean subjects is more severe for fibrosis, the progression of liver disease, chronic kidney disease, and overall mortality.
To determine a demographic overview of orthopoxvirus seroprevalence, we tested blood samples collected during 2003-2019 from France (n = 4,876), Bolivia (n = 601), Laos (n = 657), and Mali (n = 255) ...for neutralizing antibodies against vaccinia virus. In addition, we tested 4,448 of the 4,876 samples from France for neutralizing antibodies against cowpox virus. We confirmed extensive cross-immunity between the 2 viruses. Seroprevalence of antibodies was <1% in Bolivia, <5% in Laos, and 17.25% in Mali. In France, we found low prevalence of neutralizing antibodies in persons who were unvaccinated and vaccinated for smallpox, suggesting immunosenescence occurred in vaccinated persons, and smallpox vaccination compliance declined before the end of compulsory vaccination. Our results suggest that populations in Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America are susceptible to orthopoxvirus infections, which might have precipitated the emergence of orthopoxvirus infections such as the 2022 spread of monkeypox in Europe.
Highlights • Vaccination decisions were not motivated by the same factors during and after the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. • While pandemic vaccination appears as the outcome of a deliberative ...decision-making process, seasonal vaccination decision did not seem to require repetitive conscious effort among participants. • Public health campaigns should focus more on situational rather than informational cues to promote vaccination among at-risk groups.
We investigated the mortality patterns of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients in France relative to a control population, comparing year 2020 to pre-pandemic years 2017-2019.
COPD ...patient and sex, age and residence matched control cohorts were created from the French National Health Data System. Survival was analyzed using Cox regressions and standardized rates.
All-cause mortality increased in 2020 compared to 2019 in the COPD population (+4%), but to a lesser extent than in the control population (+10%). Non-COVID-19 mortality decreased to a greater extent in COPD patients (-5%) than in the controls (-2%). Death rate from COVID-19 was twice as high in the COPD population relative to the control population (547 vs. 279 per 100,000 person-years).
The direct impact of the pandemic in terms of deaths from COVID-19 was much greater in the COPD population than in the control population. However, the larger decline in non-COVID-19 mortality in COPD patients could reflect a specific protective effect of the containment measures on this population, counterbalancing the direct impact they had been experiencing.
Studies suggest a decreasing trend in the consumption of meat products and a growing interest in vegetarian diets. Medical support may be relevant, especially when switching to a vegan diet. Our ...objective was to describe the beliefs and attitudes of primary care physicians toward vegetarian diets. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among general practitioners and pediatricians thorough a questionnaire including socio-demographic characteristics, specific care to vegetarians, and the risks and benefits of vegetarian diets according to physicians. Out of the 177 participating physicians, 104 (59%) have seen at least one vegetarian patient in consultation in the last three months. Half of the physicians declared that they would dissuade their patients from switching to a vegan diet (n = 88, 51%) and 14% (n = 24) from switching to an ovo-lacto-vegetarian (OLV) diet. Most physicians (n = 141, 88%) did not feel informed enough about these diets. Physicians thought that the most frequent deficiencies for OLV and vegan diets were iron (76% and 84%, respectively) and protein (45% and 79%, respectively). These results highlight the fact that French primary care physicians feel concerned by this subject and need more information on these diets. Specific recommendations would be useful to support their practice and relationship with vegetarians.
Background
The average length of stay (LOS) in the intensive care unit (ICU_ALOS) is a helpful parameter summarizing critical bed occupancy. During the outbreak of a novel virus, estimating early a ...reliable ICU_ALOS estimate of infected patients is critical to accurately parameterize models examining mitigation and preparedness scenarios.
Methods
Two estimation methods of ICU_ALOS were compared: the average LOS of already discharged patients at the date of estimation (DPE), and a standard parametric method used for analyzing time-to-event data which fits a given distribution to observed data and includes the censored stays of patients still treated in the ICU at the date of estimation (CPE). Methods were compared on a series of all COVID-19 consecutive cases (
n
= 59) admitted in an ICU devoted to such patients. At the last follow-up date, 99 days after the first admission, all patients but one had been discharged. A simulation study investigated the generalizability of the methods' patterns. CPE and DPE estimates were also compared to COVID-19 estimates reported to date.
Results
LOS ≥ 30 days concerned 14 out of the 59 patients (24%), including 8 of the 21 deaths observed. Two months after the first admission, 38 (64%) patients had been discharged, with corresponding DPE and CPE estimates of ICU_ALOS (95% CI) at 13.0 days (10.4–15.6) and 23.1 days (18.1–29.7), respectively. Series' true ICU_ALOS was greater than 21 days, well above reported estimates to date.
Conclusions
Discharges of short stays are more likely observed earlier during the course of an outbreak. Cautious unbiased ICU_ALOS estimates suggest parameterizing a higher burden of ICU bed occupancy than that adopted to date in COVID-19 forecasting models.
Funding
Support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81900097 to Dr. Zhou) and the Emergency Response Project of Hubei Science and Technology Department (2020FCA023 to Pr. Zhao).
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