•Mean city centre winter UHI intensity was +2.3 °C reaching maximum of +9.9 °C.•Winter UHI reduces cold-related mortality by 15% (266 deaths avoided).•This compares with increased mortality of 36% ...(96 deaths) in summer.•Winter UHI continues to have a protective effect in future climate.
Exposure to heat has a range of potential negative impacts on human health; hot weather may exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory illness or lead to heat stroke and death. Urban populations are at increased risk due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect (higher urban temperatures compared with rural ones). This has led to extensive investigation of the summertime UHI and its effects, whereas far less research focuses on the wintertime UHI. Exposure to low temperature also leads to a range of illnesses, and in fact, in the UK, annual cold-related mortality outweighs heat-related mortality. It is not clearly understood to what extent the wintertime UHI may protect against cold related mortality.
In this study we quantify the UHI intensity in wintertime for a heavily urbanized UK region (West Midlands, including Birmingham) using a regional weather model, and for the first time, use a health impact assessment (HIA) to estimate the associated impact on cold-related mortality.
We show that the population-weighted mean winter UHI intensity was +2.3 °C in Birmingham city center, and comparable with that of summer. Our results suggest a potential protective effect of the wintertime UHI, equivalent to 266 cold-related deaths avoided (~15% of total cold-related mortality over ~11 weeks). When including the impacts of climate change, our results suggest that the number of heat-related deaths associated with the summer UHI will increase from 96 (in 2006) to 221 in the 2080s, based on the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. The protective effect of the wintertime UHI is projected to increase only slightly from 266 cold-related deaths avoided in 2009 to 280 avoided in the 2080s. The different effects of the UHI in winter and summer should be considered when assessing interventions in the built environment for reducing summer urban heat, and our results suggest that the future burden of temperature-related mortality associated with the UHI is likely to increase in summer relative to winter.
The sustainability of school-based health interventions after external funds and/or other resources end has been relatively unexplored in comparison to health care. If effective interventions ...discontinue, new practices cannot reach wider student populations and investment in implementation is wasted. This review asked: What evidence exists about the sustainability of school-based public health interventions? Do schools sustain public health interventions once start-up funds end? What are the barriers and facilitators affecting the sustainability of public health interventions in schools in high-income countries?
Seven bibliographic databases and 15 websites were searched. References and citations of included studies were searched, and experts and authors were contacted to identify relevant studies. We included reports published from 1996 onwards. References were screened on title/abstract, and those included were screened on full report. We conducted data extraction and appraisal using an existing tool. Extracted data were qualitatively synthesised for common themes, using May's General Theory of Implementation (2013) as a conceptual framework.
Of the 9677 unique references identified through database searching and other search strategies, 24 studies of 18 interventions were included in the review. No interventions were sustained in their entirety; all had some components that were sustained by some schools or staff, bar one that was completely discontinued. No discernible relationship was found between evidence of effectiveness and sustainability. Key facilitators included commitment/support from senior leaders, staff observing a positive impact on students' engagement and wellbeing, and staff confidence in delivering health promotion and belief in its value. Important contextual barriers emerged: the norm of prioritising educational outcomes under time and resource constraints, insufficient funding/resources, staff turnover and a lack of ongoing training. Adaptation of the intervention to existing routines and changing contexts appeared to be part of the sustainability process.
Existing evidence suggests that sustainability depends upon schools developing and retaining senior leaders and staff that are knowledgeable, skilled and motivated to continue delivering health promotion through ever-changing circumstances. Evidence of effectiveness did not appear to be an influential factor. However, methodologically stronger primary research, informed by theory, is needed.
The review was registered on PROSPERO: CRD42017076320, Sep. 2017.
•Urban heat interventions generally aim to reduce heat-related effects in summer.•Cool roofs have a larger impact on temperature in summer than in winter.•In winter cool roofs have negligible impacts ...on cold-related mortality.•Cool roofs have net benefits in reducing annual temperature related mortality.
Human health can be negatively impacted by hot or cold weather, which often exacerbates respiratory or cardiovascular conditions and increases the risk of mortality. Urban populations are at particular increased risk of effects from heat due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect (higher urban temperatures compared with rural ones). This has led to extensive investigation of the summertime UHI, its impacts on health, and also the consideration of interventions such as reflective ‘cool’ roofs to help reduce summertime overheating effects. However, interventions aimed at limiting summer heat are rarely evaluated for their effects in wintertime, and thus their overall annual net impact on temperature-related health effects are poorly understood.
In this study we use a regional weather model to simulate the winter 2009/10 period for an urbanized region of the UK (Birmingham and the West Midlands), and use a health impact assessment to estimate the impact of reflective ‘cool’ roofs (an intervention usually aimed at reducing the UHI in summer) on cold-related mortality in winter. Cool roofs have been shown to be effective at reducing maximum temperatures during summertime. In contrast to the summer, we find that cool roofs have a minimal effect on ambient air temperatures in winter. Although the UHI in summertime can increase heat-related mortality, the wintertime UHI can have benefits to health, through avoided cold-related mortality. Our results highlight the potential annual net health benefits of implementing cool roofs to reduce temperature-related mortality in summer, without reducing the protective UHI effect in winter.
Further, we suggest that benefits of cool roofs may increase in future, with a doubling of the number of heat-related deaths avoided by the 2080s (RCP8.5) compared to summer 2006, and with insignificant changes in the impact of cool-roofs on cold-related mortality. These results further support reflective ‘cool’ roof implementation strategies as effective interventions to protect health, both today and in future.
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•Methods for adaptation projections are varied, with no consistent method established.•Many methods of including adaptation in projections are not based on evidence.•Including ...adaptation in projections considerably influences estimated mortality.•Combination or framework methods have been developed in more recent years.•Adaptation uncertainty should be included in future health impact assessments.
Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures can cause harm to human health. Due to global warming, heat-related health effects are likely to increase substantially in future unless populations adapt to living in a warmer world. Adaptation to temperature may occur through physiological acclimatisation, behavioural mechanisms, and planned adaptation. A fundamental step in informing responses to climate change is understanding how adaptation can be appropriately accounted for when estimating future health burdens. Previous studies modelling adaptation have used a variety of methods, and it is often unclear how underlying assumptions of adaptation are made and if they are based on evidence. Consequently, the most appropriate way to quantitatively model adaptation in projections of health impacts is currently unknown. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, it is important to consider the role of adaptation in anticipating future health burdens of climate change.
To address this, a literature review using systematic scoping methods was conducted to document the quantitative methods employed by studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change that also consider adaptation. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Categories were discussed and refined between reviewers during synthesis.
Fifty-nine studies were included and grouped into eight methodological categories. Methods of including adaptation in projections have changed over time with more recent studies using a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most common approaches to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure–response slope. Just under 20% of studies were identified as using an intervention-based empirical basis for statistical assumptions.
Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence.
There is growing recognition of the need to improve protection against the adverse health effects of hot weather in the context of climate change. We quantify the impact of the Urban Heat Island ...(UHI) and selected adaptation measures made to dwellings on temperature exposure and mortality in the West Midlands region of the UK. We used 1) building physics models to assess indoor temperatures, initially in the existing housing stock and then following adaptation measures (energy efficiency building fabric upgrades and/or window shutters), of representative dwelling archetypes using data from the English Housing Survey (EHS), and 2) modelled UHI effect on outdoor temperatures. The ages of residents were combined with evidence on the heat-mortality relationship to estimate mortality risk and to quantify population-level changes in risk following adaptations to reduce summertime heat exposure. Results indicate that the UHI effect accounts for an estimated 21% of mortality. External shutters may reduce heat-related mortality by 30–60% depending on weather conditions, while shutters in conjunction with energy-efficient retrofitting may reduce risk by up to 52%. The use of shutters appears to be one of the most effective measures providing protection against heat-related mortality during periods of high summer temperatures, although their effectiveness may be limited under extreme temperatures. Energy efficiency adaptations to the dwellings and measures to increase green space in the urban environment to combat the UHI effect appear to be less beneficial for reducing heat-related mortality.
•Built environment characteristics may affect population exposure to excess heat.•Housing and land surface changes may alter heat exposure and heat-related mortality.•Installing external shutters may reduce heat-attributable deaths by 30–60%.•Shutter installation and energy efficiency retrofit may reduce mortality by 52%.•The Urban Heat Island may contribute to 21% of heat mortality.
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•Policies on anthropogenic emissions dominate health impacts of air pollution.•PM2.5 and NO2 simulated at 3 km resolution for 2030, 2040, 2050 emissions pathways.•Mortality burden ...calculated with latest UK health impact assessment recommendations.•>30% reduction in attributable mortality beyond 2030 for current policies c.f. 2018.•Future relative and absolute mortality burdens vary regionally across the UK.
Air pollution is the greatest environmental risk to public health. Future air pollution concentrations are primarily determined by precursor emissions, which are driven by environmental policies relating to climate and air pollution. Detailed health impact assessments (HIA) are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of the impacts of future air pollution to support decision-makers developing environmental policy and targets. In this study we use high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry modelling to simulate future air pollution concentrations across the UK for 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on current UK and European policy projections. We combine UK regional population-weighted concentrations with the latest epidemiological relationships to quantify mortality associated with changes in PM2.5 and NO2 air pollution. Our HIA suggests that by 2050, population-weighted exposure to PM2.5 will reduce by 28% to 36%, and for NO2 by 35% to 49%, depending on region. The HIA shows that for present day (2018), annual mortality attributable to the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 is in the range 26,287 – 42,442, and that mortality burdens in future will be substantially reduced, being lower by 31%, 35%, and 37% in 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (relative to 2018) assuming no population changes. Including population projections (increases in all regions for 30+ years age group) slightly offsets these health benefits, resulting in reductions of 25%, 27%, and 26% in mortality burdens for 2030, 2040, 2050 respectively. Significant reductions in future mortality burdens are estimated and, importantly for public health, the majority of benefits are achieved early on in the future timeline simulated, though further efforts are likely needed to reduce impacts of air pollution to health.
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•Policies on anthropogenic emissions dominate health impacts of air pollution.•O3 simulated at 3 km resolution for 2030, 2040 and 2050 emissions pathways.•Hospitalisations calculated ...with latest UK health impact assessment recommendations.•7078 increase in respiratory hospitalisations by 2050 for current policy c.f. 2018.•Estimated increases are 2–3 times lower if population growth is not included.
Exposure to ambient ozone (O3) O3 is associated with impacts on human health. O3 is a secondary pollutant whose concentrations are determined inter alia by emissions of precursors such as oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and thus future health burdens depend on policies relating to climate and air quality. While emission controls are expected to reduce levels of PM2.5 and NO2 and their associated mortality burdens, for secondary pollutants like O3 the picture is less clear. Detailed assessments are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of future impacts to support decision-makers. We simulate future O3 across the UK using a high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry model with current UK and European policy projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050, and use UK regional population-weighting and latest recommendations on health impact assessment to quantify respiratory emergency hospital admissions associated with short-term effects of O3. We estimate 60,488 admissions in 2018, increasing by 4.2%, 4.5% and 4.6% by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (assuming a fixed population). Including future population growth, estimated emergency respiratory hospital admissions are 8.3%, 10.3% and 11.7% higher by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Increasing O3 concentrations in future are driven by reduced nitric oxide (NO) in urban areas due to reduced emissions, with increases in O3 mainly occurring in areas with lowest O3 concentrations currently. Meteorology influences episodes of O3 on a day-to-day basis, although a sensitivity study indicates that annual totals of hospital admissions are only slightly impacted by meteorological year. While reducing emissions results in overall benefits to population health (through reduced mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2), due to the complex chemistry, as NO emissions reduce there are associated local increases in O3 close to population centres that may increase harms to health.
Purpose of Review
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is a well-studied phenomenon, whereby urban areas are generally warmer than surrounding suburban and rural areas. The most direct effect on health from ...the UHI is due to heat risk, which is exacerbated in urban areas, particularly during heat waves. However, there may be health benefits from warming during colder months. This review highlights recent attempts to quantitatively estimate the health impacts of the UHI and estimations of the health benefits of UHI mitigation measures.
Recent Findings
Climate change, increasing urbanisation and an ageing population in much of the world, is likely to increase the risks to health from the UHI, particularly from heat exposure. Studies have shown increased health risks in urban populations compared with rural or suburban populations in hot weather and a disproportionate impact on more vulnerable social groups. Estimations of the impacts of various mitigation techniques suggest that a range of measures could reduce health impacts from heat and bring other benefits to health and wellbeing.
Summary
The impact of the UHI on heat-related health is significant, although often overlooked, particularly when considering future impacts associated with climate change. Multiple factors should be considered when designing mitigation measures in urban environments in order to maximise health benefits and avoid unintended negative effects.
•Not including population changes lead to an average underestimation of the heat-health burden of 64 %.•Of the identified studies 45 % included changes in population size.•23 % of studies included ...demographic change as changes in age structure.•Of the 15 studies using SSP-RCP scenarios 12 included implausible combinations.
Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies.
Heat exposure presents a significant weather-related health risk in England and Wales, and is associated with acute impacts on mortality and adverse effects on a range of clinical conditions, as well ...as increased healthcare costs. Most heat-related health outcomes are preventable with health protection measures such as behavioural changes, individual cooling actions, and strategies implemented at the landscape level or related to improved urban infrastructure.
We review current limitations in reporting systems and propose ten indicators to monitor changes in heat exposures, vulnerabilities, heat-health outcomes, and progress on adaptation actions. These indicators can primarily inform local area decision-making in managing risks across multiple sectors such as public health, adult and social care, housing, urban planning, and education. The indicators can be used alongside information on other vulnerabilities relevant for heat and health such as underlying morbidity or housing characteristics, to prioritise the most effective adaptation actions for those who need it the most.
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