We explore the predictions for detectable gravitational-wave signals from merging binary black holes formed through chemically homogeneous evolution in massive short-period stellar binaries. We find ...that ∼500 events per year could be detected with advanced ground-based detectors operating at full sensitivity. We analyse the distribution of detectable events, and conclude that there is a very strong preference for detecting events with nearly equal components (mass ratio >0.66 at 90 per cent confidence in our default model) and high masses (total source-frame mass between 57 and 103 M⊙ at 90 per cent confidence). We consider multiple alternative variations to analyse the sensitivity to uncertainties in the evolutionary physics and cosmological parameters, and conclude that while the rates are sensitive to assumed variations, the mass distributions are robust predictions. Finally, we consider the recently reported results of the analysis of the first 16 double-coincident days of the O1 LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory) observing run, and find that this formation channel is fully consistent with the inferred parameters of the GW150914 binary black hole detection and the inferred merger rate.
Modern problems in astronomical Bayesian inference require efficient methods for sampling from complex, high-dimensional, often multimodal probability distributions. Most popular methods, such as ...MCMC sampling, perform poorly on strongly multimodal probability distributions, rarely jumping between modes or settling on just one mode without finding others. Parallel tempering addresses this problem by sampling simultaneously with separate Markov chains from tempered versions of the target distribution with reduced contrast levels. Gaps between modes can be traversed at higher temperatures, while individual modes can be efficiently explored at lower temperatures. In this paper, we investigate how one might choose the ladder of temperatures to achieve more efficient sampling, as measured by the autocorrelation time of the sampler. In particular, we present a simple, easily implemented algorithm for dynamically adapting the temperature configuration of a sampler while sampling. This algorithm dynamically adjusts the temperature spacing to achieve a uniform rate of exchanges between chains at neighbouring temperatures. We compare the algorithm to conventional geometric temperature configurations on a number of test distributions and on an astrophysical inference problem, reporting efficiency gains by a factor of 1.2–2.5 over a well-chosen geometric temperature configuration and by a factor of 1.5–5 over a poorly chosen configuration. On all of these problems, a sampler using the dynamical adaptations to achieve uniform acceptance ratios between neighbouring chains outperforms one that does not.
Abstract
Gravitational-wave detectors are starting to reveal the redshift evolution of the binary black hole (BBH) merger rate,
R
BBH
(
z
). We make predictions for
R
BBH
(
z
) as a function of black ...hole mass for systems originating from isolated binaries. To this end, we investigate correlations between the delay time and black hole mass by means of the suite of binary population synthesis simulations,
COMPAS
. We distinguish two channels: the common envelope (CE), and the stable Roche-lobe overflow (RLOF) channel, characterized by whether the system has experienced a common envelope or not. We find that the CE channel preferentially produces BHs with masses below about 30
M
⊙
and short delay times (
t
delay
≲ 1 Gyr), while the stable RLOF channel primarily forms systems with BH masses above 30
M
⊙
and long delay times (
t
delay
≳ 1 Gyr). We provide a new fit for the metallicity-dependent specific star formation rate density based on the Illustris TNG simulations, and use this to convert the delay time distributions into a prediction of
R
BBH
(
z
). This leads to a distinct redshift evolution of
R
BBH
(
z
) for high and low primary BH masses. We furthermore find that, at high redshift,
R
BBH
(
z
) is dominated by the CE channel, while at low redshift, it contains a large contribution (∼40%) from the stable RLOF channel. Our results predict that, for increasing redshifts, BBHs with component masses above 30
M
⊙
will become increasingly scarce relative to less massive BBH systems. Evidence of this distinct evolution of
R
BBH
(
z
) for different BH masses can be tested with future detectors.
ABSTRACT
During the first three observing runs of the Advanced gravitational-wave detector network, the LIGO/Virgo collaboration detected several black hole binary (BHBH) mergers. As the population ...of detected BHBH mergers grows, it will become possible to constrain different channels for their formation. Here we consider the chemically homogeneous evolution (CHE) channel in close binaries, by performing population synthesis simulations that combine realistic binary models with detailed cosmological calculations of the chemical and star-formation history of the Universe. This allows us to constrain population properties, as well as cosmological and aLIGO/aVirgo detection rates of BHBH mergers formed through this pathway. We predict a BHBH merger rate at redshift zero of $5.8 \textrm {Gpc}^{-3} \textrm {yr}^{-1}$ through the CHE channel, to be compared with aLIGO/aVirgo’s measured rate of ${53.2}_{-28.2}^{+55.8} \text{Gpc}^{-3}\text{yr}^{-1}$, and find that eventual merger systems have BH masses in the range $17{-}43 \,\textrm {M}_{\odot }$ below the pair-instability supernova (PISN) gap, and ${\gt}124 \textrm {M}_{\odot }$ above the PISN gap. We investigate effects of momentum kicks during black hole formation, and calculate cosmological and magnitude limited PISN rates. We also study the effects of high-redshift deviations in the star formation rate. We find that momentum kicks tend to increase delay times of BHBH systems, and our magnitude limited PISN rate estimates indicate that current deep surveys should be able to detect such events. Lastly, we find that our cosmological merger rate estimates change by at most ${\sim}8{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for mild deviations of the star formation rate in the early Universe, and by up to ${\sim}40\,\text{per cent}$ for extreme deviations.
We present observations of the optical afterglow of GRB 170817A, made by the Hubble Space Telescope, between 2018 February and August, up to one year after the neutron star merger GW170817. The ...afterglow shows a rapid decline beyond 170 days, and confirms the jet origin for the observed outflow, in contrast to more slowly declining expectations for "failed-jet" scenarios. We show here that the broadband (radio, optical, X-ray) afterglow is consistent with a structured outflow where an ultra-relativistic jet, with a Lorentz factor of Γ 100, forms a narrow core (∼5°) and is surrounded by a wider angular component that extends to ∼15°, which is itself relativistic (Γ 5). For a two-component model of this structure, the late-time optical decline, where F ∝ t− , is = 2.20 0.18, and for a Gaussian structure the decline is = 2.45 0.23. We find the Gaussian model to be consistent with both the early ∼10 days and late 290 days data. The agreement of the optical light curve with the evolution of the broadband spectral energy distribution, and its continued decline, indicates that the optical flux is arising primarily from the afterglow and not any underlying host system. This provides the deepest limits on any host stellar cluster with a luminosity 4000 L (MF606W −4.3).
Abstract
The joint detection of gravitational waves (GWs) and electromagnetic radiation from the binary neutron star (BNS) merger GW170817 has provided unprecedented insight into a wide range of ...physical processes: heavy element synthesis via the
r
-process; the production of relativistic ejecta; the equation of state of neutron stars and the nature of the merger remnant; the binary coalescence timescale; and a measurement of the Hubble constant via the “standard siren” technique. In detail, all of these results depend on the distance to the host galaxy of the merger event, NGC 4993. In this Letter we measure the surface brightness fluctuation (SBF) distance to NGC 4993 in the F110W and F160W passbands of the Wide Field Camera 3 Infrared Channel (WFC3/IR) on the
Hubble Space Telescope
(
HST
). For the preferred F110W passband we derive a distance modulus of
(
m
−
M
)
=
33.05
±
0.08
±
0.10
mag, or a linear distance
d
= 40.7 ± 1.4 ± 1.9 Mpc (random and systematic errors, respectively); a virtually identical result is obtained from the F160W data. This is the most precise distance to NGC 4993 available to date. Combining our distance measurement with the corrected recession velocity of NGC 4993 implies a Hubble constant
H
0
= 71.9 ± 7.1 km s
−1
Mpc
−1
. A comparison of our result to the GW-inferred value of
H
0
indicates a binary orbital inclination of
i
≳ 137°. The SBF technique can be applied to early-type host galaxies of BNS mergers to ∼100 Mpc with
HST
and possibly as far as ∼300 Mpc with the
James Webb Space Telescope
, thereby helping to break the inherent distance-inclination degeneracy of the GW data at distances where many future BNS mergers are likely to be detected.
Ensemble studies of red-giant stars with exquisite asteroseismic (
Kepler
), spectroscopic (APOGEE), and astrometric (
Gaia
) constraints offer a novel opportunity to recast and address long-standing ...questions concerning the evolution of stars and of the Galaxy. Here, we infer masses and ages for nearly 5400 giants with available
Kepler
light curves and APOGEE spectra using the code
PARAM
, and discuss some of the systematics that may affect the accuracy of the inferred stellar properties. We then present patterns in mass, evolutionary state, age, chemical abundance, and orbital parameters that we deem robust against the systematic uncertainties explored. First, we look at age-chemical-abundances (Fe/H and
α
/Fe) relations. We find a dearth of young, metal-rich (Fe/H > 0.2) stars, and the existence of a significant population of old (8−9 Gyr), low-
α
/Fe, super-solar metallicity stars, reminiscent of the age and metallicity of the well-studied open cluster NGC 6791. The age-chemo-kinematic properties of these stars indicate that efficient radial migration happens in the thin disc. We find that ages and masses of the nearly 400
α
-element-rich red-giant-branch (RGB) stars in our sample are compatible with those of an old (∼11 Gyr), nearly coeval, chemical-thick disc population. Using a statistical model, we show that the width of the observed age distribution is dominated by the random uncertainties on age, and that the spread of the inferred intrinsic age distribution is such that 95% of the population was born within ∼1.5 Gyr. Moreover, we find a difference in the vertical velocity dispersion between low- and high-α/Fe populations. This discontinuity, together with the chemical one in the α/Fe versus Fe/H diagram, and with the inferred age distributions, not only confirms the different chemo-dynamical histories of the chemical-thick and thin discs, but it is also suggestive of a halt in the star formation (quenching) after the formation of the chemical-thick disc. We then exploit the almost coeval
α
-rich population to gain insight into processes that may have altered the mass of a star along its evolution, which are key to improving the mapping of the current, observed, stellar mass to the initial mass and thus to the age. Comparing the mass distribution of stars on the lower RGB (
R
< 11
R
⊙
) with those in the red clump (RC), we find evidence for a mean integrated RGB mass loss ⟨Δ
M
⟩ = 0.10 ± 0.02
M
⊙
. Finally, we find that the occurrence of massive (
M
≳ 1.1
M
⊙
)
α
-rich stars is of the order of 5% on the RGB, and significantly higher in the RC, supporting the scenario in which most of these stars had undergone an interaction with a companion.
This paper describes a system, referred to as model-based expectation-maximization source separation and localization (MESSL), for separating and localizing multiple sound sources from an ...underdetermined reverberant two-channel recording. By clustering individual spectrogram points based on their interaural phase and level differences, MESSL generates masks that can be used to isolate individual sound sources. We first describe a probabilistic model of interaural parameters that can be evaluated at individual spectrogram points. By creating a mixture of these models over sources and delays, the multi-source localization problem is reduced to a collection of single source problems. We derive an expectation-maximization algorithm for computing the maximum-likelihood parameters of this mixture model, and show that these parameters correspond well with interaural parameters measured in isolation. As a byproduct of fitting this mixture model, the algorithm creates probabilistic spectrogram masks that can be used for source separation. In simulated anechoic and reverberant environments, separations using MESSL produced on average a signal-to-distortion ratio 1.6 dB greater and perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ) results 0.27 mean opinion score units greater than four comparable algorithms.
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