Background
Clinical trials are challenging in rare diseases like pediatric cancers, where the accrual is limited. In these trials, inference assumptions are the same as in common diseases, that is ...the sample comes from a quasi-infinite population. This leads to overestimating the variance of the mean treatment effect. The finite-population correction factor correcting this bias is often used in surveys, but not in clinical trials. With few assumptions, the use of this correction factor can improve trials efficiency, showing that the power of those trials is sometimes higher than it appears.
Methods
First, a simulation study assesses the standard error of the mean treatment effect and coverage of the 95% confidence interval with and without the correction. Second, the analytical power of a z-test with and without the correction is given. Finally, the impact on the sample size calculation is investigated. The impact of assuming a finite population is assessed for varying treatment effect, sample size and population size.
Results
The simulation results confirm the overestimation of the standard error without the correction factor. When using the correction factor, the gain in power reaches up to 10.1%, 15.3% and 12.3% to detect a difference in treatment effect of 10%, 15% and 20%, respectively. The gain is negligible for n = 30, in scenarios with high power (>95%), and for large populations. This gain in power translates into a decrease in sample size: if the conventional calculation leads to a sample size 10% of the population size, then the sample size can be divided by 1.1; if the conventional calculation leads to a sample size 20% of the population size, then the sample size can be divided by 1.2, in order to reach the planned type I error and power.
Conclusion
When dealing with rare diseases like pediatric cancers, the power of clinical trials might be higher than it appears if using conventional sample sizes. When correcting the variance of the mean using the population size, a gain in efficiency is observed with reasonable sample sizes and treatment differences for very small population sizes, showing that this approach can be useful for some pediatric cancer clinical trials.
Resistance mechanisms and heterogeneity in HER2-positive gastric cancers (GC) limit Trastuzumab benefit in 32% of patients, and other targeted therapies have failed in clinical trials. Using patient ...samples, patient-derived xenografts (PDXs), partially humanized biological models, and HER2-targeted imaging technologies we demonstrate the role of caveolin-1 (CAV1) as a complementary biomarker in GC selection for Trastuzumab therapy. In retrospective analyses of samples from patients enrolled on Trastuzumab trials, the CAV1-high profile associates with low membrane HER2 density and low patient survival. We show a negative correlation between CAV1 tumoral protein levels - a major protein of cholesterol-rich membrane domains - and Trastuzumab-drug conjugate TDM1 tumor uptake. Finally, CAV1 depletion using knockdown or pharmacologic approaches (statins) increases antibody drug efficacy in tumors with incomplete HER2 membranous reactivity. In support of these findings, background statin use in patients associates with enhanced antibody efficacy. Together, this work provides preclinical justification and clinical evidence that require prospective investigation of antibody drugs combined with statins to delay drug resistance in tumors.
Introduction
Peripherally acting μ-opioid receptor antagonists (PAMORAs) are used in the treatment of opioid induced constipation without impacting the actions of opioid analgesics. Subcutaneous ...methylnaltrexone was one of the first PAMORAs approved in April 2008 for the treatment of opioid induced constipation in adult patients. The safety and effectiveness of methylnaltrexone has not been established in pediatric patients. In this study, the use of subcutaneous methylnaltrexone in pediatric patients is analyzed and reviewed. The primary outcome is occurrence of a bowel movement within 24 h after methylnaltrexone (MNTX) administration and the number of bowel movements following treatment with methylnaltrexone. Secondary outcomes include safety in this patient cohort.
Methods
This is a retrospective study of 79 pediatric patients with opioid induced constipation. Patients were administered methylnaltrexone during their inpatient stay. Data on bowel activity after methylnaltrexone was obtained from the hospital information system.
Results
Out of the 79 patients who received methylnaltrexone, there were seven patients from whom data could not be analyzed. Of the 72 patients whose data was available, 38% (N = 27) were documented as having a bowel movement, 62% (N = 45) did not have a bowel movement. Reported adverse events were minimal with nausea (N = 3), vomiting (N = 1), and flatulence (N = 6).
Conclusion
Methylnaltrexone appears safe in the pediatric population and produces bowel movements in more than a third of pediatric patients. It is a feasible and safe option for opioid induced constipation in pediatric patients.
Extensions in the field of joint modeling of correlated data and dynamic predictions improve the development of prognosis research. The R package frailtypack provides estimations of various joint ...models for longitudinal data and survival events. In particular, it fits models for recurrent events and a terminal event (frailtyPenal), models for two survival outcomes for clustered data (frailtyPenal), models for two types of recurrent events and a terminal event (multivPenal), models for a longitudinal biomarker and a terminal event (longiPenal) and models for a longitudinal biomarker, recurrent events and a terminal event (trivPenal). The estimators are obtained using a standard and penalized maximum likelihood approach, each model function allows to evaluate goodness-of-fit analyses and provides plots of baseline hazard functions. Finally, the package provides individual dynamic predictions of the terminal event and evaluation of predictive accuracy. This paper presents the theoretical models with estimation techniques, applies the methods for predictions and illustrates frailtypack functions details with examples.
In lung cancer, randomized trials assessing hyperfractionated or accelerated radiotherapy seem to yield conflicting results regarding the effects on overall (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS). ...The Meta-Analysis of Radiotherapy in Lung Cancer Collaborative Group decided to address the role of modified radiotherapy fractionation.
We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis in patients with nonmetastatic lung cancer, which included trials comparing modified radiotherapy with conventional radiotherapy.
In non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC; 10 trials, 2,000 patients), modified fractionation improved OS as compared with conventional schedules (hazard ratio HR = 0.88, 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.97; P = .009), resulting in an absolute benefit of 2.5% (8.3% to 10.8%) at 5 years. No evidence of heterogeneity between trials was found. There was no evidence of a benefit on PFS (HR = 0.94; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.03; P = .19). Modified radiotherapy reduced deaths resulting from lung cancer (HR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.98; P = .02), and there was a nonsignificant reduction of non-lung cancer deaths (HR = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.66 to 1.15; P = .33). In small-cell lung cancer (SCLC; two trials, 685 patients), similar results were found: OS, HR = 0.87, 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.02, P = .08; PFS, HR = 0.88, 95% CI, 0.75 to 1.03, P = .11. In both NSCLC and SCLC, the use of modified radiotherapy increased the risk of acute esophageal toxicity (odds ratio OR = 2.44 in NSCLC and OR = 2.41 in SCLC; P < .001) but did not have an impact on the risk of other acute toxicities.
Patients with nonmetastatic NSCLC derived a significant OS benefit from accelerated or hyperfractionated radiotherapy; a similar but nonsignificant trend was observed for SCLC. As expected, there was increased acute esophageal toxicity.
Gene therapy for sickle cell disease is limited by the yield of hematopoietic progenitor cells that can be harvested for transduction or gene editing. We therefore performed a phase I dose-escalation ...study of the hematopoietic progenitor cell mobilizing agent plerixafor to evaluate the efficacy and safety of standard dosing on peripheral blood CD34
cell mobilization. Of 15 patients enrolled to date, only one was chronically transfused and ten were on hydroxyurea. Of eight patients who achieved a CD34
cell concentration >30 cells/μL, six were on hydroxyurea. There was no clear dose response to increasing plerixafor dosage. There was a low rate of serious adverse events; two patients developed vaso-occlusive crises, at the doses of 80 μg/kg and 240 μg/kg. Hydroxyurea may have contributed to the limited CD34
mobilization by affecting baseline peripheral blood CD34 counts, which correlated strongly with peak peripheral blood CD34 counts. Plerixafor administration did not induce significant increases in the fraction of activated neutrophils, monocytes, or platelets. However, increased neutrophils positive for activated β2 integrin and Mac-1 were associated with serious adverse events. In summary, plerixafor was well tolerated but did not achieve consistent CD34
cell mobilization in this cohort of patients, most of whom were being actively treated with hydroxyurea and only one was chronically transfused. The study will continue with escalation of the dose of plerixafor and modification of hydroxyurea administration.
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Summary Background The gold standard endpoint in clinical trials of chemotherapy and radiotherapy for lung cancer is overall survival. Although reliable and simple to measure, this endpoint takes ...years to observe. Surrogate endpoints that would enable earlier assessments of treatment effects would be useful. We assessed the correlations between potential surrogate endpoints and overall survival at individual and trial levels. Methods We analysed individual patients' data from 15 071 patients involved in 60 randomised clinical trials that were assessed in six meta-analyses. Two meta-analyses were of adjuvant chemotherapy in non-small-cell lung cancer, three were of sequential or concurrent chemotherapy, and one was of modified radiotherapy in locally advanced lung cancer. We investigated disease-free survival (DFS) or progression-free survival (PFS), defined as the time from randomisation to local or distant relapse or death, and locoregional control, defined as the time to the first local event, as potential surrogate endpoints. At the individual level we calculated the squared correlations between distributions of these three endpoints and overall survival, and at the trial level we calculated the squared correlation between treatment effects for endpoints. Findings In trials of adjuvant chemotherapy, correlations between DFS and overall survival were very good at the individual level (ρ2 =0·83, 95% CI 0·83–0·83 in trials without radiotherapy, and 0·87, 0·87–0·87 in trials with radiotherapy) and excellent at trial level ( R2 =0·92, 95% CI 0·88–0·95 in trials without radiotherapy and 0·99, 0·98–1·00 in trials with radiotherapy). In studies of locally advanced disease, correlations between PFS and overall survival were very good at the individual level (ρ2 range 0·77–0·85, dependent on the regimen being assessed) and trial level ( R2 range 0·89–0·97). In studies with data on locoregional control, individual-level correlations were good (ρ2 =0·71, 95% CI 0·71–0·71 for concurrent chemotherapy and ρ2 =0·61, 0·61–0·61 for modified vs standard radiotherapy) and trial-level correlations very good ( R2 =0·85, 95% CI 0·77–0·92 for concurrent chemotherapy and R2 =0·95, 0·91–0·98 for modified vs standard radiotherapy). Interpretation We found a high level of evidence that DFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for overall survival in studies of adjuvant chemotherapy involving patients with non-small-cell lung cancers, and PFS in those of chemotherapy and radiotherapy for patients with locally advanced lung cancers. Extrapolation to targeted agents, however, is not automatically warranted. Funding Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique, Ligue Nationale Contre le Cancer, British Medical Research Council, Sanofi-Aventis.
We previously introduced a random-effects model to analyze a set of patients, each of which has two distinct tumors. The goal is to estimate the proportion of patients for which one of the tumors is ...a metastasis of the other, i.e. where the tumors are clonally related. Matches of mutations within a tumor pair provide the evidence for clonal relatedness. In this article, using simulations, we compare two estimation approaches that we considered for our model: use of a constrained quasi-Newton algorithm to maximize the likelihood conditional on the random effect, and an Expectation-Maximization algorithm where we further condition the random-effect distribution on the data.
In some specific settings, especially with sparse information, the estimation of the parameter of interest is at the boundary a non-negligible number of times using the first approach, while the EM algorithm gives more satisfactory estimates. This is of considerable importance for our application, since an estimate of either 0 or 1 for the proportion of cases that are clonal leads to individual probabilities being 0 or 1 in settings where the evidence is clearly not sufficient for such definitive probability estimates.
The EM algorithm is a preferable approach for our clonality random-effect model. It is now the method implemented in our R package Clonality, making available an easy and fast way to estimate this model on a range of applications.
BackgroundRefractory CMV viremia and disease are associated with significant morbidity and mortality in recipients of hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HCT).MethodsIn phase I/II trials, we treated ...67 subjects for CMV viremia or disease arising after HCT with adoptive transfer of banked, third-party, CMVpp65-sensitized T cells (CMVpp65-VSTs). All were evaluable for toxicity and 59 for response. Evaluable subjects had CMV disease or persisting viremia that had failed at least 2 weeks of induction therapy with a median of 3 antiviral drugs; 84.7% had more than 3 of 11 high-risk features. CMVpp65-VSTs were specific for 1 to 3 CMVpp65 epitopes, presented by a limited set of HLA class I or II alleles, and were selected based on high-resolution HLA matching at 2 of 10 HLA alleles and matching for subject and subject's HCT donor for 1 or more alleles through which the CMVpp65-VSTs were restricted.ResultsT cell infusions were well tolerated. Of 59 subjects evaluable for response, 38 (64%) achieved complete or durable partial responses.ConclusionsRecipients responding to CMVpp65VSTs experienced an improved overall survival. Of the risk factors evaluated, transplant type, recipient CD4+ and CD8+ T cell levels prior to adoptive therapy, and the HLA restriction of CMVpp65-VSTs infused each significantly affected responses. In addition, CMVpp65-specific T cells of HCT donor or recipient origin contributed to the durability of both complete and partial responses.Trial RegistrationNCT00674648; NCT01646645; NCT02136797 (NIH).FundingNIH (P01 CA23766, R21 CA162002 and P30 CA008748); Aubrey Fund; Claire Tow Foundation; Major Family Foundation; "Rick" Eisemann Pediatric Research Fund; Banbury Foundation; Edith Robertson Foundation; Larry Smead Foundation.
The use of settings such as cohorts or clinical trials with interval-censored data and clustered event times are increasingly popular designs. First, the observed outcomes cannot be considered as ...independent and random effects survival models were introduced. Second, the failure time is not known exactly but it is only known to have occurred within a certain interval.
We propose here an extension of shared frailty models to handle simultaneously the interval censoring, the clustering and also left truncation due to delayed entry in the cohort. A simulation study to evaluate the proposed method was conducted. The estimated results are used to obtain dynamic predictions for clustered patients, with interval-censored failure times and with a given history. We apply our method to the Three-City study, a prospective cohort with periodic follow-up in order to study prognostic factors of dementia. In this application scheme, couples are natural clusters and an intra-couple correlation might be present with a possible increased risk for dementia for subjects whose partner already developed incident dementia. No significant intra-couple correlation for the risk of dementia was observed before and after adjustments for covariates. We also present individual predictions of dementia underlining the usefulness of dynamic prognostic tools that can take into account the clustering.
The consideration of frailty models for interval-censoring data and left-truncated data permits useful analysis of very complex clustered data. It could help to improve estimation of the impact of proposed prognostic features in a study with clustering. We proposed here a tractable model and a dynamic prediction tool that can easily be implemented using the R package Frailtypack.
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