A common assumption about malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne infections is that the two main components of the risk of human infection--the rate at which people are bitten (human biting rate) ...and the proportion of mosquitoes that are infectious--are positively correlated. In fact, these two risk factors are generated by different processes and may be negatively correlated across space and time in heterogeneous environments. Uneven distribution of blood-meal hosts and larval habitat creates a spatial mosaic of demograPhic sources and sinks. Moreover, mosquito populations fluctuate temporally, forced by environmental variables such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity. These sources of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the distribution of mosquito populations generate variability in the human biting rate, in the proportion of mosquitoes that are infectious, and in the risk of human infection. To understand how heterogeneity affects the epidemiology of mosquito-borne infections, we developed a set of simple models that incorporate heterogeneity in a stepwise fashion. These models predict that the human biting rate is highest shortly after the mosquito densities peak, near breeding sites where adult mosquitoes emerge, and around the edges of areas where humans are aggregated. In contrast, the proportion of mosquitoes that are infectious reflects the age structure of mosquito populations; it peaks where old mosquitoes are found, far from mosquito breeding habitat, and when mosquito population density is declining. Finally, we show that estimates for the average risk of infection that are based on the average entomological inoculation rate are strongly biased in heterogeneous environments.
Anopheles mosquitoes are important vectors of malaria and lymphatic filariasis (LF), which are major public health diseases in Nigeria. Malaria is caused by infection with a protozoan parasite of the ...genus Plasmodium and LF by the parasitic worm Wuchereria bancrofti. Updating our knowledge of the Anopheles species is vital in planning and implementing evidence based vector control programs. To present a comprehensive report on the spatial distribution and composition of these vectors, all published data available were collated into a database. Details recorded for each source were the locality, latitude/longitude, time/period of study, species, abundance, sampling/collection methods, morphological and molecular species identification methods, insecticide resistance status, including evidence of the kdr allele, and P. falciparum sporozoite rate and W. bancrofti microfilaria prevalence. This collation resulted in a total of 110 publications, encompassing 484,747 Anopheles mosquitoes in 632 spatially unique descriptions at 142 georeferenced locations being identified across Nigeria from 1900 to 2010. Overall, the highest number of vector species reported included An. gambiae complex (65.2%), An. funestus complex (17.3%), An. gambiae s.s. (6.5%). An. arabiensis (5.0%) and An. funestus s.s. (2.5%), with the molecular forms An. gambiae M and S identified at 120 locations. A variety of sampling/collection and species identification methods were used with an increase in molecular techniques in recent decades. Insecticide resistance to pyrethroids and organochlorines was found in the main Anopheles species across 45 locations. Presence of P. falciparum and W. bancrofti varied between species with the highest sporozoite rates found in An. gambiae s.s, An. funestus s.s. and An. moucheti, and the highest microfilaria prevalence in An. gambiae s.l., An. arabiensis, and An. gambiae s.s. This comprehensive geo-referenced database provides an essential baseline on Anopheles vectors and will be an important resource for malaria and LF vector control programmes in Nigeria.
Malaria parasites and immune responses in an infected human interact on a dynamic landscape, in which a population of replicating parasites depletes a population of replenishing red blood cells ...(RBCs). These underlying dynamics receive relatively little attention, but they offer unique insights into the processes that control most malaria infections. Here, we focus on the observation that three of the four malaria-parasite species that infect humans are restricted to particular age classes of RBC. We explicitly incorporate this observation in models of infection dynamics to distinguish common from species-specific pressures on host immune responses, and we find that age structuring has profound effects on the course of infection. For all four species conditions exist under which the parasites may persist at low densities, or may clear, even in the absence of an immune response. Catastrophic anemia can occur even with the two species that attack only the youngest RBCs, although only a small fraction of cells are parasitized at any point. Furthermore, with these two, compensatory erythropoetic responses in the host accelerate parasite population growth. A "basic reproduction rate" characterizes these differences in outcomes.
The evolution of drug resistance in malaria parasites highlights a need to identify and evaluate strategies that could extend the useful therapeutic life of anti-malarial drugs. Such strategies are ...deployed to best effect before resistance has emerged, under conditions of great uncertainty.
Here, the emergence and spread of resistance was modelled using a hybrid framework to evaluate prospective strategies, estimate the time to drug failure, and weigh uncertainty. The waiting time to appearance was estimated as the product of low mutation rates, drug pressure, and parasite population sizes during treatment. Stochastic persistence and the waiting time to establishment were simulated as an evolving branching process. The subsequent spread of resistance was simulated in simple epidemiological models.
Using this framework, the waiting time to the failure of artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) for malaria was estimated, and a policy of multiple first-line therapies (MFTs) was evaluated. The models quantify the effects of reducing drug pressure in delaying appearance, reducing the chances of establishment, and slowing spread. By using two first-line therapies in a population, it is possible to reduce drug pressure while still treating the full complement of cases.
At a global scale, because of uncertainty about the time to the emergence of ACT resistance, there was a strong case for MFTs to guard against early failure. Our study recommends developing operationally feasible strategies for implementing MFTs, such as distributing different ACTs at the clinic and for home-based care, or formulating different ACTs for children and adults.
Mosquitoes commute between blood-meal hosts and water. Thus, heterogeneity in human biting reflects underlying spatial heterogeneity in the distribution and suitability of larval habitat as well as ...inherent differences in the attractiveness, suitability and distribution of blood-meal hosts. One of the possible strategies of malaria control is to identify local vector species and then attack water bodies that contain their larvae.
Biting and host seeking, not oviposition, have been the focus of most previous studies of mosquitoes and malaria transmission. This study presents a mathematical model that incorporates mosquito oviposition behaviour.
The model demonstrates that oviposition is one potential factor explaining heterogeneous biting and vector distribution in a landscape with a heterogeneous distribution of larval habitat. Adult female mosquitoes tend to aggregate around places where they oviposit, thereby increasing the risk of malaria, regardless of the suitability of the habitat for larval development. Thus, a water body may be unsuitable for adult mosquito emergence, but simultaneously, be a source for human malaria.
Larval density may be a misleading indicator of a habitat's importance for malaria control. Even if mosquitoes could be lured to oviposit in sprayed larval habitats, this would not necessarily mitigate -- and might aggravate -- the risk of malaria transmission. Forcing mosquitoes to fly away from humans in search of larval habitat may be a more efficient way to reduce the risk of malaria than killing larvae. Thus, draining, fouling, or filling standing water where mosquitoes oviposit can be more effective than applying larvicide.
Treatment of asymptomatic individuals, regardless of their malaria infection status, with regularly spaced therapeutic doses of antimalarial drugs has been proposed as a method for reducing malaria ...morbidity and mortality. This strategy, called intermittent preventive treatment (IPT), is currently employed for pregnant women and is being studied for infants (IPTi) as well. As with any drug-based intervention strategy, it is important to understand how implementation may affect the spread of drug-resistant parasites. This is a difficult issue to address experimentally because of the limited size and duration of IPTi trials as well as the intractability of distinguishing the spread of resistance due to conventional treatment of malaria episodes versus that due to IPTi when the same drug is used in both contexts.
Using a mathematical model, we evaluated the possible impact of treating individuals with antimalarial drugs at regular intervals regardless of their infection status. We translated individual treatment strategies and drug pharmacokinetics into parasite population dynamic effects and show that immunity, treatment rate, drug decay kinetics, and presumptive treatment rate are important factors in the spread of drug-resistant parasites. Our model predicts that partially resistant parasites are more likely to spread in low-transmission areas, but fully resistant parasites are more likely to spread under conditions of high transmission, which is consistent with some epidemiological observations. We were also able to distinguish between spread of resistance due to treatment of symptomatic infections and that due to IPTi. We showed that IPTi could accelerate the spread of resistant parasites, but this effect was only likely to be significant in areas of low or unstable transmission.
The results presented here demonstrate the importance of considering both the half-life of a drug and the existing level of resistance when choosing a drug for IPTi. Drugs to which little or no resistance exists are not advisable for IPT in high-transmission areas, but IPTi is not likely to significantly impact the spread of highly resistant parasites in areas where partial resistance is already established. IPTi is more likely to accelerate the spread of resistance in high-transmission areas than is IPT in adults (i.e., pregnant women).
Malaria is one of the oldest and deadliest infectious diseases in humans. Many mathematical models of malaria have been developed during the past century, and applied to potential interventions. ...However, malaria remains uncontrolled and is increasing in many areas, as are vector and parasite resistance to insecticides and drugs.
This study presents a simulation model of African malaria vectors. This individual-based model incorporates current knowledge of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics and their relations to the environment. One of its main strengths is that it is based on both biological and environmental variables.
The model made it possible to structure existing knowledge, assembled in a comprehensive review of the literature, and also pointed out important aspects of basic Anopheles biology about which knowledge is lacking. One simulation showed several patterns similar to those seen in the field, and made it possible to examine different analyses and hypotheses for these patterns; sensitivity analyses on temperature, moisture, predation and preliminary investigations of nutrient competition were also conducted.
Although based on some mathematical formulae and parameters, this new tool has been developed in order to be as explicit as possible, transparent in use, close to reality and amenable to direct use by field workers. It allows a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics in general and also a better understanding of the dynamics in specific local geographic environments. It points out many important areas for new investigations that will be critical to effective, efficient, sustainable interventions.
The two main agents of human malaria, Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, can induce severe anemia and provoke strong, complex immune reactions. Which dynamical behaviors of host immune and ...erythropoietic responses would foster control of infection, and which would lead to runaway parasitemia and/or severe anemia? To answer these questions, we developed differential equation models of interacting parasite and red blood cell (RBC) populations modulated by host immune and erythropoietic responses. The model immune responses incorporate both a rapidly responding innate component and a slower-responding, long-term antibody component, with several parasite developmental stages considered as targets for each type of immune response. We found that simulated infections with the highest parasitemia tended to be those with ineffective innate immunity even if antibodies were present. We also compared infections with dyserythropoiesis (reduced RBC production during infection) to those with compensatory erythropoiesis (boosted RBC production) or a fixed basal RBC production rate. Dyserythropoiesis tended to reduce parasitemia slightly but at a cost to the host of aggravating anemia. On the other hand, compensatory erythropoiesis tended to reduce the severity of anemia but with enhanced parasitemia if the innate response was ineffective. For both parasite species, sharp transitions between the schizont and the merozoite stages of development (i.e., with standard deviation in intra-RBC development time <or=2.4 h) were associated with lower parasitemia and less severe anemia. Thus tight synchronization in asexual parasite development might help control parasitemia. Finally, our simulations suggest that P. vivax can induce severe anemia as readily as P. falciparum for the same type of immune response, though P. vivax attacks a much smaller subset of RBCs. Since most P. vivax infections are nonlethal (if debilitating) clinically, this suggests that P. falciparum adaptations for countering or evading immune responses are more effective than those of P. vivax.
Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) are an important tool for malaria control. ITNs are effective because they work on several parts of the mosquito feeding cycle, including both adult killing and ...repelling effects.
Using an elaborated description of the classic feeding cycle model, simple formulas have been derived to describe how ITNs change mosquito behaviour and the intensity of malaria transmission, as summarized by vectorial capacity and EIR. The predicted changes are illustrated as a function of the frequency of ITN use for four different vector populations using parameter estimates from the literature.
The model demonstrates that ITNs simultaneously reduce mosquitoes' lifespans, lengthen the feeding cycle, and by discouraging human biting divert more bites onto non-human hosts. ITNs can substantially reduce vectorial capacity through small changes to all of these quantities. The total reductions in vectorial capacity differ, moreover, depending on baseline behavior in the absence of ITNs. Reductions in lifespan and vectorial capacity are strongest for vector species with high baseline survival. Anthropophilic and zoophilic species are affected differently by ITNs; the feeding cycle is lengthened more for anthrophilic species, and the proportion of bites that are diverted onto non-human hosts is higher for zoophilic species.
This model suggests that the efficacy of ITNs should be measured as a total reduction in transmission intensity, and that the quantitative effects will differ by species and by transmission intensity. At very high rates of ITN use, ITNs can generate large reductions in transmission intensity that could provide very large reductions in transmission intensity, and effective malaria control in some areas, especially when used in combination with other control measures. At high EIR, ITNs will probably not substantially reduce the parasite rate, but when transmission intensity is low, reductions in vectorial capacity combine with reductions in the parasite rate to generate very large reductions in EIR.
Plasmodium infections trigger complex immune reactions from their hosts against several life stages of the parasite, including gametocytes. These immune responses are highly variable, depending on ...age, genetics, and exposure history of the host as well as species and strain of parasite. Although the effects of host antibodies that act against gamete stages in the mosquito (due to uptake in the blood meal) are well documented, the effects of host immunity upon within-host gametocytes are not as well understood. This report consists of a theoretical population biology-based analysis to determine constraints that host immunity impose upon gametocyte population growth. The details of the mathematical models used for the analysis were guided by published reports of clinical and animal studies, incorporated plausible modalities of immune reactions to parasites, and were tailored to the life cycl es of the two most widespread human malaria pathogens, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax.
For the same ability to bind and clear a target, the model simulations suggest that an antibody attacking immature gametocytes would tend to lower the overall density of transmissible mature gametocytes more than an antibody attacking the mature forms directly. Transmission of P. falciparum would be especially vulnerable to complete blocking by antibodies to its immature forms since its gametocytes take much longer to reach maturity than those of P. vivax. On the other hand, antibodies attacking the mature gametocytes directly would reduce the time the mature forms can linger in the host. Simulation results also suggest that varying the standard deviation in the time necessary for individual asexual parasites to develop and produce schizonts can affect the efficiency of production of transmissible gametocytes.
If mature gametocyte density determines the probability of transmission, both Plasmodium species, but especially P. falciparum, could bolster this probability through evasion or suppression of host immune responses against the immature gametocytes. However, if the long term lingering of mature gametocytes at low density in the host is also important to ensure transmission, then evasion or suppression of antibodies against the mature stages would bolster probability of transmission as well.
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