V članku so predstavljeni metodološki problemi in možne rešitve za izdelavo demografskih analiz in projekcij v izrednih razmerah. Take okoliščine zahtevajo sistematičen pristop, ki se ne omeji samo ...na klasične demografske analize, ampak zahteva širšo presojo. Metodologija je preizkušena pri izdelavi študije Demografija i sistem naselja za potrebe izrade prostornog plana Kantona Sarajevo za period od 2003 do 2023 godine. V prvem delu so predvsem ugotavljali demografske smernice in stanje, v drugem pa opredelili variantne parametre, ki so namenjeni pripravi projekcij prebivalstva za potrebe usmerjanja razvoja. Prav v tem je metodološka novost izdelave projekcij. Projekcije se tesno navezujejo na problematiko razvoja v prostoru in preobrazbe demografske in socialne strukture prebivalstva. Metodologija, ki smo jo uporabili v študiji, se razlikuje od običajnih metod izdelave projekcij prebivalstva. Prav v tem vidimo njihovo praktično uporabnost. Ker so se demografske razmere med vojno bistveno spremenile v vsej BiH, ne moremo delati niti ocene bodočega demografskega razvoja v Kantonu Sarajevo, ne da bi upoštevali politiko uvajanja skladnega razvoja v vsej državi. Torej bi bilo treba narediti podobne analize tudi za druga območja BiH, s čimer bi uporabljene hipoteze za Kanton Sarajevo samo utrdile pomen.
The article presents methodological issues and possible solutions for execution of demographic analyses and projections in contingency circumstances. These demand a systematic approach, which isn’t ...limited to classical demographic analyses, but demands wider assessment. The methodology was tested in a study entitled “Demography and the system of settlements for the spatial plan of the Sarajevo Canton for the period 2003 to 2023”. In the first part evidence of demographic trends and conditions was established, while the second defined variation parameters, which are used for preparation of population projections needed for directing development. This in fact is the methodological novelty in calculating projections. These are closely linked to issues in spatial development and transformations in the demographic and social structure of the population. The applied methodology differs from the most commonly used methods for calculation of population projections. Here we see its practicality. Because of the war demographic conditions changed significantly in the entire Bosnia and Hercegovina, thus also estimates of future demographic development in the Sarajevo canton cannot be conducted without consideration of the policy of balanced development in the country. Therefore similar analyses should also be undertaken in other parts of the country, which would prove the significance of the hypothesis applied to the Sarajevo Canton.
The role of European cities is approaching its peak importance in times of global crisis. The reasons for this are their financial, intellectual, institutional and political capacities and influence. ...This advantage of cities is combined with shortcomings of demographic hyper concentration, social segregation, financial blunders and security threats. Dynamic changes are increasing, and are accompanied by centripetal forces that direct the flow of population towards the town centers, finance and investment towards big cities, while smaller towns in many cases lag behind. The role of cities and towns is of particular importance in the European countries in transition, such as the countries of Central and South East Europe, with all their advantages and disadvantages. The complex network of still undiscovered links between large cities - especially capitals - with their functions as the basis of networking, along with the growing emergence of large metropolitan areas as economic regions and the lack of polycentrism as a national spatial policy, could emerge as a critical and challenging issue for the governments of the major cities of South East Europe (SEE). Functional pro¬file of a city and its economic structure, together with a system of public services, technical equipment and capacities, jointly contribute to the level of its competitiveness. Cooperation and networking of capitals in the SEE is a topic of importance not only for this part of Europe but also for Europe as a whole. The system of city management in SEE therefore requires modernization instead of politicization.
PERSPEKTIVE UMREŽAVANJA GLAVNIH GRADOVA GORNJEG PODUNAVLJA Stojkov, Borislav; Memišević, Gordana
MEĐUNARODNA NAUČNA KONFERENCIJA: MJESTO I ULOGA GLAVNIH GRADOVA SEE (JUGOISTOČNE EVROPE) U RAZVOJU MEĐUREGIONALNE I MEĐUDRŽAVNE SURADNJE U OKVIRU DUNAVSKE I JADRANSKO-JONSKE EVROPSKE MAKROREGIJE,
2015
Book Chapter
The role of European cities is approaching its peak importance in times of global crisis. The reasons for this are their financial, intellectual, institutional and political capacities and influence. ...This advantage of cities is combined with shortcomings of demographic hyper concentration, social segregation, financial blunders and security threats. Dynamic changes are increasing, and are accompanied by centripetal forces that direct the flow of population towards the town centers, finance and investment towards big cities, while smaller towns in many cases lag behind. The role of cities and towns is of particular importance in the European countries in transition, such as the countries of Central and South East Europe, with all their advantages and disadvantages. The complex network of still undiscovered links between large cities - especially capitals - with their functions as the basis of networking, along with the growing emergence of large metropolitan areas as economic regions and the lack of polycentrism as a national spatial policy, could emerge as a critical and challenging issue for the governments of the major cities of South East Europe (SEE). Functional profile of a city and its economic structure, together with a system of public services, technical equipment and capacities, jointly contribute to the level of its competitiveness. Cooperation and networking of capitals in the SEE is a topic of importance not only for this part of Europe but also for Europe as a whole. The system of city management in SEE therefore requires modernization instead of politicization.
This article is focused on significance and necessity to include Canton Sarajevo into development
planning process in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a precondition for accession of our
country to EU. ...Apart from significance and development planning process, special attention
is being paid to the need to integrate and include, in organizational-management sense, all
cantons in Federation as implementation units in that process. Present strategic planning
process in Bosnia and Herzegovina has focused on state and entity level, while in future it
is necessary also to include lower governmental levels, especially cantons in Federation of
Bosnia and Herzegovina which represents a task of this article. In the article, present process
issues and development planning results in BIH are being presented as well as the process
of strategic development documents implementation, monitoring and canton level reporting.
This article is focused on significance and necessity to include Canton Sarajevo into development planning process in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a precondition for accession of our country to EU. ...Apart from significance and development planning process, special attention is being paid to the need to integrate and include, in organizational-management sense, all cantons in Federation as implementation units in that process. Present strategic planning process in Bosnia and Herzegovina has focused on state and entity level, while in future it is necessary also to include lower governmental levels, especially cantons in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina which represents a task of this article. In the article, present process issues and development planning results in BIH are being presented as well as the process of strategic development documents implementation, monitoring and canton level reporting. Additionally, legal framework is also being presented due to the fact that it establishes obligation to create action plans and establish implementation units at cantonal level. The aforementioned legal framework defines Federal Institute for Development Programming as the key coordinator of all activities. Canton Sarajevo’s Action Plan for Strategic Planning is structured in line with strategic development goals determined in state BIH development documents referring to the following areas: macro stability, competitiveness, employment, sustainable development and social inclusion. Significance of action planning is being emphasized in the conclusion but only as a first step in BIH development strategy assuming creation of other relevant development aspects (social, economic and environmental). Also, necessity to harmonize aforementioned aspects with spatial planning documents is being emphasized. Sarajevo Canton has been continuously focusing its activities on this segment for a longer time period.
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