This paper provides an ex-post assessment of the climate and energy policy developments in Chile emerging from a neoliberal economic model, during the period 1971–2007. First, correlation and ...regression analyses were performed to analyse historical CO2 emissions as a product of demographic, economic and energy-wide drivers. Then I estimate indicators related to CO2 emissions, energy use and economic activity. In the light of empirical results, I identify policy instruments and structural issues. Finally, I present a comparative analysis of Chile and other Latin American countries. Statistical tests show that variability of CO2 emissions is explained mostly by GDP per capita (‘affluence’) than any other tested variable. Indicators show that the diversification and decarbonisation of the energy mix has been a major policy challenge. With two notable exceptions (hydro and natural gas), the CO2 intensity of the energy supply mix suggests no effective policies, while energy security crises triggered negative carbon effects and increased prices. No clear policies to promote energy efficiency can be identified until 2005. Explicit policy instruments to promote renewable energy are only recognised after 2004. The results strongly suggest that Chile lacked of policies to effectively decarbonise its energy–economy system.
► The first paper that quantitatively assesses key drivers of CO2 emissions in Chile. ► It examines energy and climate policy development during the period 1971–2007. ► GDP per capita (‘affluence’) is the main determinant of CO2 emissions. ► Diversification and decarbonisation of energy mix has been a major policy challenge. ► Policy approach under analysed period not suited for a low-carbon economy.
Using the latest available data, this brief article attempts to provide the first regional decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Covering eight regions of the world, ...determinants are estimated in relative and absolute terms for the period 1971–2010. We use the unparalleled 2010 global surge in CO2 emissions as a reference and entry point for the analysis. Overall, results show that most regions have recently performed worse than their historical trends and lack of meaningful progress is identified. Whereas specific drivers for certain regions suggest some level of continuous improvement (e.g. reduced energy intensity in Asia, decarbonisation of of energy supply in OECD Europe), they are incapable of offsetting the effects of economic growth and increased energy use. With the exception of Africa, most regions appear to have missed the ‘low-carbon economy opportunity’ provided by the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. Results suggest a lack of serious environmental effectiveness of regional policy portfolios aiming at reducing CO2 emissions. Highly ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy policies across all regions are immediately needed. Additionally, absolute reductions in energy use from fossil fuels and resulting CO2 emissions are urgently required in rich regions if we are to align production and consumption patterns with maintaining global warming below the 2°C threshold.
•A novel regional decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions is provided.•Results suggest lack of environmental effectiveness of regional policy portfolios.•Ambitious energy efficiency and renewable policies across all regions are needed.•Absolute reductions in fossil energy use and emissions are required in rich regions.•This is critical for economic growth in a world with carbon constraints.
Transaction costs (TCs) must be taken into account when assessing the performance of policy instruments that create markets for the diffusion and commercialization of low-carbon technologies (LCTs). ...However, there are no comprehensive studies on the development and application of transaction cost analysis to LCTs. In this meta-analysis, a wide-ranging evaluation of TCs associated with energy efficiency, renewable energy, and carbon market technologies is provided. There is a plethora of different definitions of, and measurement techniques to estimate, TCs. There is wide variation in the quantitative estimates, which can be attributed to factors such as the definition used, data collection, quantification methods, the type and size of technologies, the regulatory frameworks, the complexity of transactions, and the maturity of policy instruments. It is concluded that TCs are highly specific to both LCTs and policy instruments and that a common methodological approach is needed to avoid misleading policy analysis of the extant and future assessments. Policy relevance Transaction costs (TCs) accrued by, for instance, the search for information, due diligence, monitoring and verification (M&V) activities, must be considered in the design, implementation, and assessment of policy instruments. Such costs can have a negative effect on the performance of policy instruments aimed at the diffusion and commercialization of low-carbon technologies. It is shown here that TC analysis is mostly technology and policy context-specific and hence that it is not advisable to make generalizations about sources and estimates. The nature and scale of TCs are likely to differ due to a variety of endogenous determinants (e.g. size and performance of technologies), exogenous drivers (e.g. regulatory policy frameworks), and methodological aspects (e.g. quantification techniques). Several measures and strategies have the potential to reduce TCs, including standardized full cost accounting systems, an ex ante M&V approach, project bundling, and streamlining of procedures.
This article presents a critical assessment of 40 years of research that may be brought under the umbrella of energy efficiency, spanning different aggregations and domains-from individual producing ...and consuming agents to economy-wide effects to the role of innovation to the influence of policy. After 40 years of research, energy efficiency initiatives are generally perceived as highly effective. Innovation has contributed to lowering energy technology costs and increasing energy productivity. Energy efficiency programs in many cases have reduced energy use per unit of economic output and have been associated with net improvements in welfare, emission reductions, or both. Rebound effects at the macro level still warrant careful policy attention, as they may be nontrivial. Complexity of energy efficiency dynamics calls for further methodological and empirical advances, multidisciplinary approaches, and granular data at the service level for research in this field to be of greatest societal benefit.
Solar PV capacity in Sweden has grown considerably in the last years, however and despite techno-economic potential, its share in the power mix remains rather marginal. There are growing claims about ...economic and non-monetary factors driving the (non-)adoption of solar PV, but quantitative evidence about potential adopters is rather limited. Our study addresses this gap and investigates subsidy effects and non-economic variables affecting the likelihood to adopt solar PV. It deploys a survey experiment using a web panel of Swedish house owners (N = 208). A set of logistic regression models and corresponding statistical tests are used to examine several hypotheses. Results show that subsidies and peer effects are significant factors driving the likelihood to adopt. Contrary to indications in the literature, the visibility of technology (and related pro-social behaviour) is not significant and interaction effects among analysed factors are irrelevant. Results are statistically robust when controlling for other variables (e.g. age, income) and highlight that environmental awareness plays a positive role. Peer effects mostly come from hearing, but if the source is known both seeing and hearing affect the likelihood to adopt. Our results underline the importance of economic incentives and peer effects in decision-making process. Both policy certainty at the national level and social interactions at the local level need far more attention in policy design.
IPCC's 2018 Special Report is a stark and bracing reminder of climate threats. Yet literature, reportage, and public discourse reflect imbalanced risk and opportunity. Climate science often ...understates changes' speed and nonlinearity, but Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and similar studies often understate realistic mitigation options. Since ∼2010, global mitigation of fossil CO2-including by often-uncounted modern renewable heat comparable to solar-plus-wind electricity-has accelerated to about the pace (if sustained) needed for a 2 °C trajectory. Mitigation has uncertainties, emergent properties, feasibility thresholds, and nonlinearities at least comparable to climate's, creating opportunities for aggressive action. Renewable electricity's swift uptake can now be echoed as proven integrative design can make end-use efficiency severalfold larger and cheaper, often with increasing returns (lower cost with rising quantity). Saved energy-the world's largest decarbonizer and energy 'source' (bigger than oil)-can then potentiate renewables and cut supply investments, as a few recent efficiency-centric IAMs confirm. Optimizing choices, combinations, timing, and sequencing of technologies, urban form, behavioral shifts, etc could save still more energy, money, and time. Some rigorous engineering-based national studies outside standard climate literature even imply potential 1.5 °C global trajectories cheaper than business-as-usual. A complementary opportunity-rapidly and durably abating hydrocarbon industries' deliberate upstream CH4 releases from flares and engineered vents, by any large operator's profitably abating its own and others' emissions-could stabilize (or more) the global methane cycle and buy time to abate more CO2. Together, these findings justify sober recalibration of the prospects for a fairer, healthier, cooler, and safer world. Supported by other disciplines, improved IAMs can illuminate this potential and support its refinement. Ambitious policies and aggressive marketplace and societal adoption of profitable new abatement opportunities need not wait for better models, but better models would help them to attract merited attention, scale faster, and turn numbing despair into collectively powerful applied hope.
•We provide a regional analysis of green energy economy (GEE) transformation.•We examine the spread of low-carbon technology policy portfolios.•We analyse short- and long-term empirical observations ...of GEE aspects.•Resistance from the economic system creates roadblock to GEE transformation.•A far more ambitious policy approach is needed to move towards a GEE.
This paper provides a regional, empirical analysis of policy portfolios that aim to contribute towards a ‘Green Energy Economy’ (GEE) transformation. Taking green economy policies and related indicators as the analytical framework, the study examines (i) the composition of policy portfolios promoting low-carbon energy technologies, (ii) short-term trends related to the GEE, (iii) long-term empirical observations of GEE-related factors, and (iv) whether, given these results, CO2 emission reduction targets can be met. The study focuses on the following regions: Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East, Non-OECD Europe and countries from the Former Soviet Union, Oceania, OECD Europe, and OECD North America. Findings reveal that low-carbon energy technology policies have spread rapidly since the 2000s. Economics incentives are widespread across all regions, highlighting the growing use of market-based policies. The short-term analysis shows that per capita income growth (and to a lesser extent population growth) are the main obstacles to transition towards a GEE transformation. From a longer-term perspective, results are highly consistent and show no, or limited, progress in making the transformation. Relative improvements in efficiency have not offset the negative effects of growing economic activity, suggesting that this factor per se is a roadblock to GEE transformation. From a policy perspective, the analysis strongly suggests that, despite a plethora of policy initiatives aimed at the market uptake of low-carbon energy technologies, the impacts on key areas of a GEE remain insufficient. A far more ambitious and integrated policy approach is needed to transition towards a GEE, particularly if emission reduction targets in line with a 2°C mitigation scenario are to be met.
The win–win opportunities connected to green growth are appealing to academics and policy makers alike, but empirical evaluations about the effectiveness of green growth policies are still scattered. ...Taking South Korea as case study, which set up a highly ambitious green growth program in 2009, our research casts light on the extent to which the Korean Green Growth Strategy has been effective in decarbonizing the economy. Our methodology combines decomposition analysis and econometrics with a review of energy and climate policies, including related structural changes. On the short term (2008–2012), most of the drivers displayed an enhancing effect on CO2 emissions from fuel combustion, with GDP per capita being the strongest driver. From a historical perspective (1971–2012), findings reveal that important drivers, such as energy and CO2 intensity even worsened their effects during the first years under the Green Growth Strategy. Regression statistics revealed that GDP per capita was in fact the driver with the most explanatory power for CO2 emissions, followed by energy intensity. The Korean policy mix of modest government support to low-carbon energy technologies and a lack of complementary pricing policies did not deliver the targeted emissions reduction, at least in the short-term. Despite recent policy developments, i.e. the introduction of a renewable portfolio standard in 2012 and an emissions trading system in 2015, several key policy challenges for decarbonization remain.
•We analyse the decarbonization effects of the Korean Green Growth Strategy.•We investigate drivers of CO2 emissions based on regression, decomposition and LMDI.•Economic growth outbalanced any progress to decarbonize the South Korean economy.•No significant effect of green growth policies on CO2 emissions is observed.•High ambition and integration of policies are critical for the green growth transformation.
For programs that aim to promote forest conservation and poverty alleviation, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+), the participation of indigenous communities ...is essential to meet program goals. Using Ostrom's theory of collective action for common pool resource management, we evaluated the institutions governing indigenous participation in the Programa Socio Bosque incentive-based conservation program in Ecuador. We conducted structured interviews with 94 members in 4 communities to assess community institutions for 6 of Ostrom's principles, using 12 measures we developed for the principles. We found substantial variation between communities in terms of their institutional performance. The best-performing community performed well (>50% of interviewees reported successfully meeting the measure) on 8 of the 12 measures. The weakest performed well on only 2 out of 12 measures. Overall, our results indicate that there is stronger performance for constitutional-level institutions, which determine who gets to make the rules, and some collective-choice institutions, which determine how local rules are made. We identified specific challenges with the day-to-day operational institutions that arise from participation in nation state–community conservation programs, such as restricted resource appropriation, monitoring and compliance, and conflict resolution. We found that top-down policy making has an important role to play in supporting communities to establish constitutional-level and some collective-choice institutions. However, developing operational institutions may take more time and depend on local families’ day-to-day use of resources, and thus may require a more nuanced policy approach. As some countries and donors find a jurisdictional REDD+ approach increasingly attractive, complementing top-down policy measures with bottom-up institutional development could provide a stronger platform to achieve the shift from current land use driving deforestation to a lower-carbon-emissions land management trajectory.
•We examine two local energy transitions from an energy justice perspective.•Low-carbon energy transition processes triggered by a multi-dimensional crisis.•Despite tensions and conflicts, several ...elements consistent with procedural justice.•Communities perceived outcomes of the transition as beneficial to some groups.•Perceived fairness of procedures a pre-condition for legitimacy of outcomes.
The aim of this paper is to critically analyse so-called ‘successful’ low-carbon energy transitions under the energy justice magnifying glass. We focus on two case studies that have been arguably referred to as successful local energy transitions in the literature: Samsø (Denmark) and Feldheim (Germany). The study examines community perspectives and causal inferences about perceived energy (in)justice during the transition to a low-carbon local energy system. Theories of justice and process tracing form the core of our methodological approach. We identify and examine evidence in relation to four main areas: consultation processes, information flow/sharing, decision-making and outcomes. The findings reveal that the transition processes were triggered by a multi-dimensional crisis in a unique context, and highlight the role of procedural justice in the investigated areas. Multiple tensions and conflicts were identified (notably concerning the location and ownership of wind turbines). However, and strongly driven by local, bottom-up, intensive information and consultation processes, evidence of perceived procedural justice was found in both cases. With regard to distributive justice, communities perceived the outcomes of the transition as beneficial to some groups, particularly from the point of view of benefits for individuals. Perceived energy justice was more positive if social and environmental outcomes were considered, including the implementation of compensation schemes. However, a quantitative analysis is required to qualify these assertions. With due limitations, we conclude that the perceived fairness of procedures, as identified in both cases, seemed to be a critical pre-condition for the perceived legitimacy of outcomes.
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