The emergence of COVID-19 and public health measures implemented to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections have both affected acute lower respiratory tract disease (aLRTD) epidemiology and incidence trends. ...The severity of COVID-19 and non-SARS-CoV-2 aLRTD during this period have not been compared in detail.
We conducted a prospective cohort study of adults age ≥18 years admitted to either of two acute care hospitals in Bristol, UK, from August 2020 to November 2021. Patients were included if they presented with signs or symptoms of aLRTD (e.g., cough, pleurisy), or a clinical or radiological aLRTD diagnosis.
12,557 adult aLRTD hospitalisations occurred: 10,087 were associated with infection (pneumonia or non-pneumonic lower respiratory tract infection NP-LRTI), 2161 with no infective cause, with 306 providing a minimal surveillance dataset. Confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection accounted for 32% (3178/10,087) of respiratory infections. Annual incidences of overall, COVID-19, and non- SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia were 714.1, 264.2, and 449.9, and NP-LRTI were 346.2, 43.8, and 302.4 per 100,000 adults, respectively. Weekly incidence trends in COVID-19 aLRTD showed large surges (median 6.5 IQR 0.7–10.2 admissions per 100,000 adults per week), while other infective aLRTD events were more stable (median 14.3 IQR 12.8–16.4 admissions per 100,000 adults per week) as were non-infective aLRTD events (median 4.4 IQR 3.5–5.5 admissions per 100,000 adults per week).
While COVID-19 disease was a large component of total aLRTD during this pandemic period, non- SARS-CoV-2 infection still caused the majority of respiratory infection hospitalisations. COVID-19 disease showed significant temporal fluctuations in frequency, which were less apparent in non-SARS-CoV-2 infection. Despite public health interventions to reduce respiratory infection, disease incidence remains high.
AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.
There is an urgent public health need to evaluate disease severity in adults hospitalised with Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant infections. However, limited data exist assessing severity of ...disease in adults hospitalised with Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infections, and to what extent patient-factors, including vaccination, age, frailty and pre-existing disease, affect variant-dependent disease severity.
A prospective cohort study of adults (≥18 years of age) hospitalised with acute lower respiratory tract disease at acute care hospitals in Bristol, UK conducted over 10-months. Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined by positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR and variant identification or inferred by dominant circulating variant. We constructed adjusted regression analyses to assess disease severity using three different measures: FiO2 >28% (fraction inspired oxygen), World Health Organization (WHO) outcome score >5 (assessing need for ventilatory support), and hospital length of stay (LOS) >3 days following admission for Omicron or Delta infection.
Independent of other variables, including vaccination, Omicron variant infection in hospitalised adults was associated with lower severity than Delta. Risk reductions were 58%, 67%, and 16% for supplementary oxygen with >28% FiO2 Relative Risk (RR) = 0.42 (95%CI: 0.34–0.52), P < 0.001, WHO outcome score >5 RR = 0.33 (95%CI: 0.21–0.50), P < 0.001, and to have had a LOS > 3 days RR = 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76–0.92), P < 0.001. Younger age and vaccination with two or three doses were also independently associated with lower COVID-19 severity.
We provide reassuring evidence that Omicron infection results in less serious adverse outcomes than Delta in hospitalised patients. Despite lower severity relative to Delta, Omicron infection still resulted in substantial patient and public health burden and an increased admission rate of older patients with Omicron which counteracts some of the benefit arising from less severe disease.
AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.
Lower Respiratory Tract Infections (LRTI) pose a serious threat to older adults but may be underdiagnosed due to atypical presentations. Here we assess LRTI symptom profiles and syndromic ...(symptom-based) case ascertainment in older (greater than or equal to 65y) as compared to younger adults (< 65y). We included adults (greater than or equal to 18y) with confirmed LRTI admitted to two acute care Trusts in Bristol, UK from 1st August 2020- 31st July 2022. Logistic regression was used to assess whether age greater than or equal to 65y reduced the probability of meeting syndromic LRTI case definitions, using patients' symptoms at admission. We also calculated relative symptom frequencies (log-odds ratios) and evaluated how symptoms were clustered across different age groups. Of 17,620 clinically confirmed LRTI cases, 8,487 (48.1%) had symptoms meeting the case definition. Compared to those not meeting the definition these cases were younger, had less severe illness and were less likely to have received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination or to have active SARS-CoV-2 infection. Prevalence of dementia/cognitive impairment and levels of comorbidity were lower in this group. LRTI symptom profiles changed considerably with age in this hospitalised cohort. Standard screening protocols may fail to detect older and frailer cases of LRTI based on their symptoms.
Hospitalisations relating to acute respiratory deteriorations (ARD) in Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) have poor outcomes. Factors predicting adverse outcomes are not fully understood and data ...addressing the use of illness severity scores in prognostication are limited.
To investigate the use of CURB-65 and NEWS-2 severity scores in the prediction of mortality following ARD-ILD hospitalisation, using prospective methodology and to validate previously determined cut-offs, derived from a retrospective study cohort.
A dual-centre prospective observational cohort study of all adults (≥18y) hospitalised with ARD-ILD in Bristol, UK (n = 179). Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP), CURB-65 and NEWS-2 scores were calculated for each eligible admission.
Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was used to quantify the strength of discrimination for NEWS-2 and CURB-65 scores. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the relationship between baseline severity scores and mortality.
GAP showed some merit at predicting 30-day mortality (AUC = 0.64, P = 0.015); whereas CURB-65 showed modest predictive value for in-hospital (AUC = 0.72, P < 0.001) and 90-day mortality (AUC = 0.67, P < 0.001). NEWS-2 showed higher predictive value for in-hospital (AUC = 0.80, P < 0.001) and 90-day mortality (AUC = 0.75, P < 0.001), with an optimal derived cut-off ≥6.5 found to be sensitive and specific for predicting in-hospital (83% and 63%) and 90-day (73% and 72%) mortality. In exploratory analyses, GAP score addition improved the predictive ability of NEWS-2 against 30-day mortality and CURB-65 across all time-periods.
NEWS-2 has good discriminatory value for predicting in-hospital mortality and moderate discriminatory value for predicting 90-day mortality. The optimal NEWS-2 cut-off value determined was the same as in a previous retrospective cohort, confirming the NEWS-2 score shows promise in predicting mortality following ARD-ILD hospitalisation.
•ARD-ILD is associated with high in-hospital, 30- and 90- day mortality, irrespective of cause.•NEWS-2 has high sensitivity and specificity in predicting 90d & in-hospital mortality in ARD-ILD.•CURB-65 showed high sensitivity for predicting mortality but low specificity.•CURB-65 did not add value to the NEWS-2 predictive ability.•Simple illness severity scores may support refinement of ARD-ILD management pathways.
Whilst other studies have reported the effectiveness of mRNA vaccination against hospitalisation, including emergency department or intensive care admission, few have assessed effectiveness against ...other more clinically robust indices of COVID-19 severity.
A prospective single-centre test-negative design case–control study of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 disease or other acute respiratory disease between 1 June 2021 and 20 July 2022. We assessed VE (vaccine effectiveness) against hospitalisation, length of stay LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and supplementary oxygen FiO2 (fraction inspired oxygen) >28%, conducting regression analyses controlling for age, gender, index of multiple deprivation, Charlson comorbidity index, time, and community infection prevalence.
935 controls and 546 cases were hospitalised during the Delta period, with 721 controls and 372 cases hospitalised during the Omicron study period. Two-dose BNT162b2 was associated with VE 82.5% 95% confidence interval 76.2%–87.2% against hospitalisation following Delta infection, 63.3% 26.9–81.8%, 58.5% 24.8–77.3%, and 51.5% 16.7–72.1% against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5, and requirement for FiO2 >28% respectively. Three-dose BNT162b2 protection against hospitalisation with Omicron infection was 30.9% 5.9–49.3%, with sensitivity analyses ranging from 28.8–72.6%. Protection against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and requirement for FiO2 >28% was 56.1% 20.6–76.5%, 58.8% 31.2–75.8%, and 41.5% −0.4–66.3%, respectively. In the UK, BNT162b2 was prioritised for high-risk individuals and those aged >75 years. In the latter group we found a higher estimate of VE against hospitalisation of 47.2% 16.8–66.6%.
BNT162b2 vaccination results in risk reductions for hospitalisation and multiple patient outcomes following Delta and Omicron COVID-19 infection, particularly in older adults. BNT162b2 remains effective against severe SARS-CoV-2 disease.
AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.
Background: Whilst other studies have reported the effectiveness of mRNA vaccination against hospitalisation, including emergency department or intensive care admission, few have assessed ...effectiveness against other more clinically robust indices of COVID-19 severity. Methods: A prospective single-centre test-negative design case–control study of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 disease or other acute respiratory disease between 1 June 2021 and 20 July 2022. We assessed VE (vaccine effectiveness) against hospitalisation, length of stay LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and supplementary oxygen FiO2 (fraction inspired oxygen) >28%, conducting regression analyses controlling for age, gender, index of multiple deprivation, Charlson comorbidity index, time, and community infection prevalence. Findings: 935 controls and 546 cases were hospitalised during the Delta period, with 721 controls and 372 cases hospitalised during the Omicron study period. Two-dose BNT162b2 was associated with VE 82.5% 95% confidence interval 76.2%–87.2% against hospitalisation following Delta infection, 63.3% 26.9–81.8%, 58.5% 24.8–77.3%, and 51.5% 16.7–72.1% against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5, and requirement for FiO2 >28% respectively. Three-dose BNT162b2 protection against hospitalisation with Omicron infection was 30.9% 5.9–49.3%, with sensitivity analyses ranging from 28.8–72.6%. Protection against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and requirement for FiO2 >28% was 56.1% 20.6–76.5%, 58.8% 31.2–75.8%, and 41.5% −0.4–66.3%, respectively. In the UK, BNT162b2 was prioritised for high-risk individuals and those aged >75 years. In the latter group we found a higher estimate of VE against hospitalisation of 47.2% 16.8–66.6%. Interpretation: BNT162b2 vaccination results in risk reductions for hospitalisation and multiple patient outcomes following Delta and Omicron COVID-19 infection, particularly in older adults. BNT162b2 remains effective against severe SARS-CoV-2 disease. Funding: AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.
Background: There is an urgent public health need to evaluate disease severity in adults hospitalised with Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant infections. However, limited data exist assessing ...severity of disease in adults hospitalised with Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infections, and to what extent patient-factors, including vaccination, age, frailty and pre-existing disease, affect variant-dependent disease severity. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adults (≥18 years of age) hospitalised with acute lower respiratory tract disease at acute care hospitals in Bristol, UK conducted over 10-months. Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined by positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR and variant identification or inferred by dominant circulating variant. We constructed adjusted regression analyses to assess disease severity using three different measures: FiO2 >28% (fraction inspired oxygen), World Health Organization (WHO) outcome score >5 (assessing need for ventilatory support), and hospital length of stay (LOS) >3 days following admission for Omicron or Delta infection. Findings: Independent of other variables, including vaccination, Omicron variant infection in hospitalised adults was associated with lower severity than Delta. Risk reductions were 58%, 67%, and 16% for supplementary oxygen with >28% FiO2 Relative Risk (RR) = 0.42 (95%CI: 0.34–0.52), P < 0.001, WHO outcome score >5 RR = 0.33 (95%CI: 0.21–0.50), P < 0.001, and to have had a LOS > 3 days RR = 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76–0.92), P < 0.001. Younger age and vaccination with two or three doses were also independently associated with lower COVID-19 severity. Interpretation: We provide reassuring evidence that Omicron infection results in less serious adverse outcomes than Delta in hospitalised patients. Despite lower severity relative to Delta, Omicron infection still resulted in substantial patient and public health burden and an increased admission rate of older patients with Omicron which counteracts some of the benefit arising from less severe disease. Funding: AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.
