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•Multiple sources and types of uncertainty found in composite indicators.•Existing treatment focuses mainly on sensitivity and uncertainty analyses.•Deep uncertainty and lack of ...transparency impedes review and iterative development.•We recommend systems modelling and systematic engagement to overcome uncertainty.•We provide a framework for analysing uncertainty in composite indicators.
Composite indicators (CIs) are increasingly used to measure and track environmental systems. However, they have faced criticism for not accounting for uncertainties and their often arbitrary nature. This review highlights methodological challenges and uncertainties involved in creating CIs and provides advice on how to improve future CI development in practice. Linguistic and epistemic uncertainties enter CIs at different stages of development and may be amplified or reduced based on subjective decisions during construction. Lack of transparency about why decisions were made can risk impeding proper review and iterative development. Research on uncertainty in CIs currently focuses on how different construction decisions affect the overall results and is explored using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Much less attention is given to uncertainties arising from the theoretical framework underpinning the CI, and the sub-indicator selection process. This often lacks systematic rigour, repeatability and clarity. We recommend use of systems modelling as well as systematic elicitation and engagement during CI development in order to address these issues. Composite indicators make trends in complex environmental systems accessible to wider stakeholder groups, including policy makers. Without proper discussion and exposure of uncertainty, however, they risk misleading their users through false certainty or misleading interpretations. This review offers guidance for future environmental CI construction and users of existing CIs, hence supporting their iterative development and effective use in policy-making.
Sauvignon blanc grape samples (n = 21) from across a single Geographical Indication of South Australia were analysed for thiol precursors and amino acids, and fermented in an identical ...laboratory-scale fermentation trial to investigate the intraregional pattern of varietal thiols in the wines. Precursors and thiols exhibited obvious intraregional diversity, and notably, stronger correlations were observed between a number of amino acids and thiol precursors (especially with glutamic acid, r ≤ −0.73) rather than free thiols. Additionally, pre-fermentation freezing (−20 °C, 1 month) was applied to five selected fresh grape samples and their juices, followed by identical fermentation. In comparison to wines from fresh grapes or frozen juices, significant elevation of varietal thiols (up to 10-fold) occurred in the wines derived from frozen grapes, with parallel increases of precursors (up to 19-fold) in juices from frozen berries. These novel results may lead to new strategies for thiol enhancement during winemaking.
Grape composition affects wine flavour and aroma not only through varietal compounds, but also by influencing the production of volatile compounds by yeast. C9 and C12 compounds that potentially ...influence ethyl ester synthesis during fermentation were studied using a model grape juice medium. It was shown that the addition of free fatty acids, their methyl esters or acyl-carnitine and acyl-amino acid conjugates can increase ethyl ester production in fermentations. The stimulation of ethyl ester production above that of the control was apparent when lower concentrations of the C9 compounds were added to the model musts compared to the C12 compounds. Four amino acids, which are involved in CoA biosynthesis, were also added to model grape juice medium in the absence of pantothenate to test their ability to influence ethyl and acetate ester production. β-Alanine was the only one shown to increase the production of ethyl esters, free fatty acids and acetate esters. The addition of 1 mg∙L(-1) β-alanine was enough to stimulate production of these compounds and addition of up to 100 mg∙L(-1) β-alanine had no greater effect. The endogenous concentrations of β-alanine in fifty Cabernet Sauvignon grape samples exceeded the 1 mg∙L(-1) required for the stimulatory effect on ethyl and acetate ester production observed in this study.
Background
It is widely assumed that the amount of alcohol in the blood reflects the amount of alcohol consumed. However, several factors in addition to amount of alcohol consumed can influence blood ...alcohol concentration (BAC). This study examines the effect of alcohol dose, concentration, and volume on BAC in rats with a high‐alcohol‐drinking (HAD) phenotype.
Methods
Study 1 examined the relationship between the amount of alcohol consumed and BAC. Alcohol‐naïve, male, HAD rats (N = 7) were given access to alcohol for 2 h/d for 9 consecutive days with food and water ad libitum. Alcohol intake and BAC were measured at 30, 60, and 90 minutes after onset of access. Study 2 examined the effects of altering alcohol dose, concentration, and volume on BAC (as measured by area under the curve). Alcohol‐naïve, male, HAD rats (N = 39) were infused, via an intragastric cannulus, with 1.16, 2.44, or 3.38 g alcohol/kg body weight (BW), produced by varying alcohol volume while holding concentration constant or by holding volume constant while varying concentration. Other rats were infused with 10, 15, or 20% v/v alcohol solutions while holding dose constant.
Results
BAC was more strongly correlated with the ratio of alcohol intake (g/kg BW) to total fluid intake (mls) (R = 0.85 to 0.97, p < 0.05 to p < 0.001) than it was with the amount of alcohol consumed (g/kg BW) (R = 0.70 to 0.81, p < 0.05). No effect of alcohol dose was seen during the first hour following the onset of an alcohol infusion regardless of whether dose was achieved by altering alcohol volume or concentration. After 1 hour, higher alcohol doses were predictive of greater BACs.
Conclusions
The fact that a 3‐fold difference in alcohol dose did not result in significant differences in BACs during the first 30 minutes after ingestion of alcohol has potentially important implications for interpretation of studies that measure alcohol‐sensitive end points during this time.
When alcohol is consumed with other fluids, as occurs in many drinking situations, blood alcohol content (BAC) early in the drinking interval is more closely related to alcohol concentration in the stomach (ratio of alcohol to total fluid) than it is to the amount of alcohol consumed. This nonlinear relationship between alcohol intake and BAC may have important implications for predicting the degree of alcohol‐induced impairment since brain alcohol content mirrors BAC.
•We propose an indicator development framework based on a systematic review, which:•Consists of 12 well-justified criteria linked to the steps in an expert process.•Distinguishes ecosystem ...characteristics and their indicators.•Is applicable in many fields of ecological/environmental/sustainability indicators.•Finally we identify two critical knowledge gaps for SEEA applications.
The UN System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EA) aims at regular and standardised stocktaking of the extent of ecosystems, their condition, and the services they provide to society. Recording the condition of ecosystems is one of the most complex pieces in this exercise and needs to be supported by consistent guidelines. SEEA EA defines the condition of an ecosystem as its overall quality, measured in terms of quantitative metrics describing its abiotic and biotic characteristics. One of the key challenges lies in identifying the most appropriate metrics for each ecosystem type that capture these essential characteristics.
The objective of this paper is to create a well-defined framework for transparent and operative development of ecosystem condition indicators, which can be used in ecosystem accounting and ecosystem assessment studies. Starting from the SEEA EA documentation and a small targeted systematic review, we identified 12 key criteria, which we grouped according to their roles during the indicator development process. Five conceptual criteria (intrinsic relevance, instrumental relevance, sensitivity, directional meaning, and framework conformity) outline the priorities for identifying relevant characteristics of the ecosystems. Five practical criteria (validity, reliability, availability, simplicity, and compatibility) provide guidance on identifying concrete quantitative metrics for the selected characteristics. Finally, two ensemble criteria (comprehensiveness, and parsimony) ensure the completeness and complementarity of the final set of metrics.
To tackle the climate and biodiversity crises, the condition of ecosystems needs to be better recognized in national economic planning. The proposed framework supports the selection of a concise set of salient and credible ecosystem condition indicators through a transparent, repeatable and scientific process. This can make the compilation of ecosystem condition accounts more accessible and more standardised on a global level, which is a key prerequisite for the success of SEEA EA. Additionally, the framework presented in this paper may be useful in other contexts where ecological, environmental, or sustainability indicators need to be identified.
Wine is a complex consumer product produced predominately by the action of yeast upon grape juice musts. Model must systems have proven ideal for studies of the effects of fermentation conditions on ...the production of certain wine volatiles. To identify grape-derived precursors to acetate esters, model fermentation systems were developed by spiking precursors into model must at different concentrations. Solid-phase microextraction–gas chromatgraphy mass spectrometry analysis of the fermented wines showed that a variety of grape-derived aliphatic alcohols and aldehydes are precursors to acetate esters. The C6 compounds hexan-1-ol, hexenal, (E)-2-hexen-1-ol, and (E)-2-hexenal are all precursors to hexyl acetate, and octanol and benzyl alcohol are precursors to octyl acetate and benzyl acetate, respectively. In these cases, the postfermentation concentration of an acetate ester increased proportionally with the prefermentation concentration of the respective precursor in the model must. Determining viticultural or winemaking methods to alter the prefermentation concentration of precursor compounds or change the precursor-to-acetate ester ratio will have implications upon the final flavor and aroma of wines.
The consideration of information on social values in conjunction with biological data is critical for achieving both socially acceptable and scientifically defensible conservation planning outcomes. ...However, the influence of social values on spatial conservation priorities has received limited attention and is poorly understood. We present an approach that incorporates quantitative data on social values for conservation and social preferences for development into spatial conservation planning. We undertook a public participation GIS survey to spatially represent social values and development preferences and used species distribution models for 7 threatened fauna species to represent biological values. These spatially explicit data were simultaneously included in the conservation planning software Zonation to examine how conservation priorities changed with the inclusion of social data. Integrating spatially explicit information about social values and development preferences with biological data produced prioritizations that differed spatially from the solution based on only biological data. However, the integrated solutions protected a similar proportion of the species’ distributions, indicating that Zonation effectively combined the biological and social data to produce socially feasible conservation solutions of approximately equivalent biological value. We were able to identify areas of the landscape where synergies and conflicts between different value sets are likely to occur. Identification of these synergies and conflicts will allow decision makers to target communication strategies to specific areas and ensure effective community engagement and positive conservation outcomes. Integración de Valores Biológicos y Sociales al Priorizar Sitios para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad
Abstract
The persistence of diverse yet threatened ecosystems like coral reefs will require urgent action underpinned by effective assessments of resilience. Resilience potential assessments are ...commonly used to identify coral reefs likely to be more resilient to disturbances, based on indicators of state and function.
Assessments are intended to support decision‐making, therefore, using principles from decision‐science and indicator design theory, we evaluated the selection, design and analysis of indicators from 68 resilience potential assessments conducted between 2008 and 2022. These principles include justifying and testing indicators and aggregation approaches, representing key parts of the ecosystem, considering uncertainty and meaningful normalisation of indicators.
Although a broad range of indicators were typically evaluated, assessments rarely present structured processes to guide and justify indicator selection, such as selection criteria and conceptual models of ecosystem function. We also found that certain key ecosystem components that confer resilience were represented by indicators in almost all assessments, such as corals, herbivory, competition and reef structure. Other factors were rarely considered, such as abundance and diversity of key fish trophic groups other than herbivores, for example groupers and corallivores, other aspects of biodiversity and competitive interactions with corals. Reference points used to translate variables into resilience indicators were typically derived from the data, such as the highest indicator value of assessed sites. Ecologically meaningful thresholds, such as collapse or historic levels, were used less often as references. In most cases, indicators were not tested or validated against independent data, uncertainties were not presented, and there was a tendency to simplify results into composite indices to rank sites, without justifying aggregation methods.
Despite resource constraints, most resilience potential assessments collect quantitative data that are useful for coral reef management. However, the shortcomings identified can make indicator interpretation difficult, limiting the capacity to predict the resilience of the system and support decisions. Implementation of robust approaches drawn from indicator design and selection theory can help strengthen resilience potential assessments of coral reefs and other ecosystems, ultimately improving the prospects of conservation.
Fish kills, often caused by low levels of dissolved oxygen (DO), involve with complex interactions and dynamics in the environment. In many places the precise cause of massive fish kills remains ...uncertain due to a lack of continuous water quality monitoring. In this study, we tested if meteorological conditions could act as a proxy for low levels of DO by relating readily available meteorological data to fish kills of grey mullet (Mugil cephalus) using a machine learning technique, the self-organizing map (SOM). Driven by different meteorological patterns, fish kills were classified into summer and non-summer types by the SOM. Summer fish kills were associated with extended periods of lower air pressure and higher temperature, and concentrated storm events 2-3 days before the fish kills. In contrast, non-summer fish kills followed a combination of relatively low air pressure, continuous lower wind speed, and successive storm events 5 days before the fish kills. Our findings suggest that abnormal meteorological conditions can serve as warning signals for managers to avoid fish kills by taking preventative actions. While not replacing water monitoring programs, meteorological data can support fishery management to safeguard the health of the riverine ecosystems.
Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarsh and mangroves, provide a wide range of important ecological and socio-economic services. A good understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of ...these ecosystems is critical to maximising the benefits from restoration and conservation projects. We mapped mangrove and saltmarsh ecosystem transitions from 1991 to 2015 in south-eastern Australia, using remotely sensed Landsat data and a Random Forest classification. Our classification results were improved by the addition of two physical variables (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM), and Distance to Water). We also provide evidence that the addition of post-classification, spatial and temporal, filters improve overall accuracy of coastal wetlands detection by up to 16%. Mangrove and saltmarsh maps produced in this study had an overall User Accuracy of 0.82–0.95 and 0.81–0.87 and an overall Producer Accuracy of 0.71–0.88 and 0.24–0.87 for mangrove and saltmarsh, respectively. We found that mangrove ecosystems in south-eastern Australia have lost an area of 1148 ha (7.6%), whilst saltmarsh experienced an overall increase in coverage of 4157 ha (20.3%) over this 24-year period. The maps developed in this study allow local managers to quantify persistence, gains, and losses of coastal wetlands in south-eastern Australia.
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