► In 2008, the Irish government set a target that 10% of all vehicles be powered by electricity by 2020. ► The impact of EV charging in the single wholesale electricity market in Ireland is analysed. ...► EV charging under peak and off-peak charging scenarios is examined. ► Results show that off-peak charging is more beneficial than peak charging. ► Only 1.55% of the Non-ETS and 1.45% of the RES-T targets are achieved.
The Irish government set a target in 2008 that 10% of all vehicles in the transport fleet be powered by electricity by 2020. Similar electric vehicle targets have been introduced in other countries. In this study the effects of 213,561 electric vehicles on the operation of the single wholesale electricity market for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is investigated. A model of Ireland’s electricity market in 2020 is developed using the power systems market model called PLEXOS for power systems. The amount of CO2 emissions associated with charging the EVs and the impacts with respect to Ireland’s target for renewable energy in transport is also quantified. A single generation portfolio and two different charging scenarios, arising from a peak and off-peak charging profile are considered. Results from the study confirm that off-peak charging is more beneficial than peak charging and that charging EVs will contribute 1.45% energy supply to the 10% renewable energy in transport target. The net CO2 reductions are 147 and 210 kt CO2 respectively.
Globally interconnected power grids are proposed as a future concept to facilitate decarbonisation of the electricity system by enabling the harnessing and sharing of vast amounts of renewable ...energy. Areas with the highest potential for renewable energy are often far away from current load centres, which can be integrated through long-distance transmission interconnection. The concept builds on the proven benefits of transmission interconnection in mitigating the variability of renewable electricity sources such as wind and solar by import and export of electricity between neighbouring regions, as well as on other known benefits of power system integration. This paper reviews existing global and regional initiatives in context of a sustainable future and presents the associated benefits and challenges of globally interconnected power grids and intercontinental interconnectors. We find that while the challenges and opportunities are clearly qualified, actual quantification of costs, benefits and environmental implications of the global grid concept remains in its infancy, imposing a significant gap in the literature.
•Global power grids are a means to harness vast amounts of renewable energy.•Intercontinental power system integration brings significant operational benefits.•Required investments are a key factor for intercontinental transmission projects.•Overall benefits and challenges are clearly described within the literature.•Quantification of costs and benefits is limited, imposing a gap in the literature.
It is anticipated that the decarbonisation of the entire energy system will require the introduction of large shares of variable renewable electricity generation into the power system. Long term ...integrated energy systems models are useful in improving our understanding of decarbonisation but they struggle to take account of short term variations in the power system associated with increased variable renewable energy penetration. This can oversimplify the ability of power systems to accommodate variable renewables and result in mistaken signals regarding the levels of flexibility required in power systems. Capturing power system impacts of variability within integrated energy system models is challenging due to temporal and technical simplifying assumptions needed to make such models computationally manageable. This paper addresses a gap in the literature by reviewing prominent methodologies that have been applied to address this challenge and the advantages & limitations of each. The methods include soft linking between integrated energy systems models and power systems models and improving the temporal and technical representation of power systems within integrated energy systems models. Each methodology covered approaches the integration of short term variations and assesses the flexibility of the system differently. The strengths, limitations, and applicability of these different methodologies are analysed. This review allows users of integrated energy systems models to select a methodology (or combination of methodologies) to suit their needs. In addition, the analysis identifies remaining gaps and shortcomings.
•Long term energy system modelling challenges identified for the power sector.•State-of-the-art methodologies for integrating the challenges related to the integration of variable renewables are presented.•Comparison of methodologies succinctly exposes the strengths & limitations of each respective methodology.
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•An energy system model (OSeMOSYS) was set up based on 12 time periods per year.•Results for 2020 were compared to a TIMES-PLEXOS model with 8784 time periods.•Adding operational ...constraints to OSeMOSYS allowed reproducing TIMES-PLEXOS results.•In OSeMOSYS, capacities in 2050 differed by 24% when omitting this operating detail.•Omitting this detail may result in underestimated climate change mitigation costs.
Efforts to meet climate change mitigation and energy security targets spur investments in variable renewable energy sources. Their implications for the operation of power plants are frequently investigated drawing on unit commitment and dispatch models. However, the temporal granularity and operational detail these models consider is commonly omitted in the broader family of long-term energy system models. To compensate this short-coming, these two types of tools have sometimes been ‘soft-linked’ and harmonised for limited simulation years. This paper assesses an alternative approach. We examine an extended version of an open source energy system model (OSeMOSYS), which is able to capture operating reserve and related investment requirements within a single tool. The implications of these model extensions are quantified through comparison with an Irish case study. That case study examined the effects of linking a long-term energy system model (TIMES) with a unit commitment and dispatch model (PLEXOS). It analysed the year 2020 in detail, applying a yearly temporal resolution that is over 700 times higher than in OSeMOSYS. Without increasing temporal resolution (and computational burden) we show that results of the enhanced OSeMOSYS model converge to results of TIMES and PLEXOS: Investment mismatches decrease from 21.4% to 5.0%. The OSeMOSYS analysis was then extended to 2050 to assess the implications of short-term variability on future capacity investment decisions. When variability was ignored, power system investments in 2050 were found to be 14.3% lower. This might imply that energy policies derived from such long-term models – of which there are many – may underestimate the costs of introducing variable renewables and thus meeting climate change or energy security targets.
This paper focuses on Ireland's ambitious target for 2020 to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% below 2005 levels for sectors not covered by ETS (Non-ETS). Ireland is an interesting case ...study due to the role of agriculture (a particularly challenging sector with regard to GHG emissions reduction), that represents 29% of Ireland's GHG emissions compared with less than 10% for the EU. The analysis is carried out with the Irish TIMES model, a bottom-up energy systems modelling tool with detailed characterization of Ireland's energy system. The paper uses scenario analysis to provide pathways that demonstrate how Ireland can meet the non-ETS target at least cost. The paper considers the impacts (in terms of different technology choices and higher marginal abatement costs) arising from higher targets for the energy system to compensate for growth in agriculture activity and low mitigation potential in that sector. The results point to a need to reconsider Ireland's renewable energy focus, with a need for increased effort in renewable transport and renewable heat in particular. The results also point to significant electrification of residential heating. The results also point to a high marginal abatement cost (E213/tCO2), which challenges the analysis carried out at EU level to establish Ireland's non-ETS target. PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
•Global historic road freight activity data is analysed and projected to 2050.•The IEA’s Mobility Model is used to calculate future energy and emissions.•Current INDCs relate to a 56% increase in ...road freight GHGs between 2015 and 2050.•The maximum potential reduction over the same time-frame was found to be 60%.•Energy efficiency, improvements in operation logistics, and alternative fuels contribute to this reduction.
Road freight transportation is a key enabler of global economic activity while also a central consumer of fossil fuels, which presents a challenge in realising a low-carbon future. To identify feasible decarbonisation solutions, we first assess significant drivers of activity in the road freight sector. We then use these drivers to project road freight service demand, vehicle stock, mileage, sales, final energy demand, and well-to-wheel GHG emissions using the IEA’s Mobility Model (MoMo) under two scenarios – the first incorporating the policy ambition of the Nationally Determined Contributions pledged at COP21, and the second extending ambitions to emission reductions that are in line with limiting global temperature rise to 1.75 degrees. In the former scenario, road freight well-to-wheel GHG emissions increase by 56% between 2015 and 2050, while in the latter, sectoral emissions are reduced by 60% over the same period, reflecting our assessment of the threshold of emission reductions potential. This reduction is catalysed by policy efforts including fuel economy regulations, carbon taxes on transport fuels, differentiated distance-based pricing, widespread data-sharing and collaboration across the supply chain as enabled by digital technologies, and sustained investment in ultra-low and zero-carbon infrastructure and research development and deployment.
This paper presents a systematic review of participatory methods used in energy system modelling and planning. It draws on a compiled database of fifty-nine studies at a local, regional, and national ...level detailing analysis on full energy systems down to sectors, modes, and single technologies. The initial aim of the paper is to consolidate and present this growing body of literature, providing a clear understanding of which stakeholder groups have been engaged and what methods have been used to link stakeholder engagement with quantitative analysis. On from this, the progress to date in democratising key decision-making processes is discussed, reflecting on the benefits and challenges of a participatory approach, as well as highlighting gaps within the current body of literature. During the review, two differing spatial levels at subnational (cities, municipalities, or regions) and national scale emerged as separate groups for analysis. A clear distinction between the two groups was the motivation for involving stakeholders. At a subnational level, researchers hoping to build local capacity to bring about real-world change engaged with community representatives, whereas national level studies concerned with generating more impactful energy policy measures involved industry, policymaking, and academic experts. One key finding from the review was that only ten out of the fifty-nine studies reviewed noted some form of collaboration with non-academic stakeholders, and moreover 36% of studies involved just a single interaction with participants. This indicates a lack of progress to date in process democratisation within energy system modelling and planning research.
•The use of participatory methods in energy system modelling and planning are reviewed.•The range of qualitative and quantitative methods are explored.•The key benefits and challenges of pursing a participatory approach are outlined.•There is still work to be done to with regard the democratisation of energy system modelling and planning processes.•Emergent research directions are discussed in light of the findings from the review.
The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2°C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European ...Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways.
► We developed a techno-economic energy model of Ireland to the year 2050. ► Reductions between 80% and 95% of GHG emissions can be technically achieved. ► A 50% emissions cut in agriculture requires a 95% reductions from the energy system. ► Extending current policies implies greater electrification and efficiency measures. ► The additional cost to achieve mitigation remain less than 2% of GDP levels in 2050.
This paper provides the first EU wide analysis of the variation in Capacity Remuneration Requirements throughout Europe which aim to resolve the “missing money” problems in various member states. The ...findings of this analysis point to an asymmetric investment case for gas-fired peaking power plants throughout the EU. Under the assumptions of the European Commission Reference Scenario, pan-European power optimisation and investment models are specified for 2030. The results show that future investment in gas generators will depend on the availability of capacity payments. Capacity remuneration mechanisms can provide this “missing money,” but we show that capacity remuneration requirements vary considerably across countries. We consider and model the impacts of country specific climate policy targets, sovereign risk, capital allowances, corporate taxes and future gas network tariffs on investor returns and therefore remuneration requirements. In the context of harmonised energy trading, this raises questions of how generation adequacy should be achieved, particularly in the context of higher penetrations of renewables.
Deep decarbonization of the global electricity sector is required to meet ambitious climate change targets. This underlines the need for improved models to facilitate an understanding of the global ...challenges ahead, particularly on the concept of large-scale interconnection of power systems. Developments in recent years regarding availability of open data as well as improvements in hardware and software has stimulated the use of more advanced and detailed electricity system models. In this paper we explain the process of developing a first-of-its-kind reference global electricity system model with over 30,000 individual power plants representing 164 countries spread out over 265 nodes. We describe the steps in the model development, assess the limitations and existing data gaps and we furthermore showcase the robustness of the model by benchmarking calibrated hourly simulation results with historical emission and generation data on a country level. The model can be used to evaluate the operation of today's power systems or can be applied for scenario studies assessing a range of global decarbonization pathways. Comprehensive global power system datasets are provided as part of the model input data, with all data being openly available under the FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship allowing users to modify or recreate the model in other simulation environments. The software used for this study (PLEXOS) is freely available for academic use.
•A detailed country-level global electricity model has been build using public data.•Insights are provided in the generation and emissions of over 30,000 power plants.•Simulation results are calibrated at country and continental level.•The model can be used for a wide range of global or regional scenario studies.•Detailed global power system datasets are composed for public use.
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