This study presents a global explanatory analysis of the interplay between the severity of flood losses and human presence in floodplain areas. In particular, we relate economic losses and fatalities ...caused by floods during 1990–2000, with changes in human population and built‐up areas in floodplains during 2000–2015 by exploiting global archives. We found that population and built‐up areas in floodplains increased in the period 2000–2015 for the majority of the analyzed countries, albeit frequent flood losses in the previous period 1990–2000. In some countries, however, population in floodplains decreased in the period 2000–2015, following more severe floods losses that occurred in the period 1975–2000. Our analysis shows that (i) in low‐income countries, population in floodplains increased after a period of high flood fatalities; while (ii) in upper‐middle and high‐income countries, built‐up areas increased after a period of frequent economic losses. In this study, we also provide a general framework to advance knowledge of human‐flood interactions and support the development of sustainable policies and measures for flood risk management and disaster risk reduction.
Key Points
We analyzed the interplay between the severity of flood losses and human presence in floodplains using freely available global data sets
Despite the frequent flood losses in the period 1990–2000, human presence and built‐up areas in the floodplains increased between 2000 and 2015
In low‐income countries, population in floodplains increased after a period of high flood fatalities
Social influence affects individual decision-making on soil conservation. Understanding the emergent diffusion of collective conservation effort is relevant to natural resource management at the ...river basin level. This study focuses on the effect of subjective norms and collective action on the diffusion of Soil Conservation Effort (SCE) in the Lake Naivasha basin (Kenya) for the period 1965–2010. A geographically-explicit Agent-Based Model (ABM) version of the CONSUMAT model was developed: the CONSERVAT model. In our model, we have represented heterogeneity in the physical environment and in the social network using empirical data. To parameterize the model, physical data, and social data from a household survey (
n
= 307) were used. Model simulation results show that it is possible to reproduce empirical spatiotemporal diffusion patterns of SCE levels which are quite sensitive to the way in which social survey data are used to initialize the model. Overall, this study demonstrates (i) that social survey data can effectively be used for parameterization of a geographically-explicit ABM, and (ii) that empirical knowledge on natural environment characteristics and social phenomena can be used to build an agent-based model at the river basin level. This study is an important first step towards including subjective norms for evaluating the effectiveness of alternative policy strategies for natural resource management.
Simulation models are widely used for studying physical processes such as surface runoff, sediment transport and sediment yield in catchments. Most models need case-specific empirical data for ...parameterization before being applied especially in regions other than the ones they have been developed. Sensitivity analysis is usually performed to determine the most influential factors of a model so that they can be prioritized for optimization. In this way uncertainties in model outputs can be reduced considerably. This study evaluates the commonly used modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) model used for sediment yield simulation for the case of the upper Malewa catchment in Kenya. The conceptual factors of the model are assessed relative to the hydrological factors in the model. Also, the sensitivity of the model to the choice of the objective function in calibration is tested. The Sobol' sensitivity analysis method was used for evaluating the degree of sensitivity of the conceptual and hydrological factors for sediment yield simulations using the MUSLE model. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the modified Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSEm) are used to test the sensitivity of the model to the choice of the objective function and robustness of model performance with sediment data measured from upper Malewa catchment, Kenya. The results indicate that the conceptual factors are the most sensitive factors of the MUSLE model contributing about 66% of the variability in the output sediment yield. Increased variability of sediment yield output was also observed. This was attributed to interactions of input factors. For the upper Malewa catchment calibration of the MUSLE model indicates that the use of NSEm as an objective function provides stable results, which indicates that the model can satisfactorily be applied for sediment yield simulations.
•Cascade-modeling improves the understanding of socio-ecohydrological system.•Lake Naivasha upstream population explained 63% of land cover changes in the basin.•Lake abstractions influence lake ...storage changes less than upstream inflows.•Downstream population and flower export explained 71% of lake water abstraction.•Downstream land cover changes explained biomass aggregation for herbivore mammals.
Most hydrological studies do not account for the socio-economic influences on eco-hydrological processes. However, socio-economic developments often change the water balance substantially and are highly relevant in understanding changes in hydrological responses. In this study a multi-disciplinary approach was used to study the cascading impacts of socio-economic drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on the eco-hydrological regime of the Lake Naivasha Basin. The basin has recently experienced substantial LULC changes exacerbated by socio-economic drivers. The simplified cascade models provided insights for an improved understanding of the socio-ecohydrological system. Results show that the upstream population has transformed LULC such that runoff during the period 1986–2010 was 32% higher than during the period 1961–1985. Cut-flower export volumes and downstream population growth explain 71% of the water abstracted from Lake Naivasha. The influence of upstream population on LULC and upstream hydrological processes explained 59% and 30% of the variance in lake storage volumes and sediment yield respectively. The downstream LULC changes had significant impact on large wild herbivore mammal species on the fringe zone of the lake. This study shows that, in cases where observed socio-economic developments are substantial, the use of a cascade-modeling approach, that couple socio-economic factors to eco-hydrological processes, can greatly improve our understanding of the eco-hydrological processes of a catchment.
Global floodplain mapping has rapidly progressed over the past few years. Different methods have been proposed to identify areas prone to river flooding, resulting in a plethora of available ...products. Here we assess the potential and limitations of two main paradigms and provide guidance on the use of these global products in assessing flood risk in data-poor regions.
Predicting floods and droughts is essential to inform the development of policy in water management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Yet, hydrological predictions are highly ...uncertain, while the frequency, severity and spatial distribution of extreme events are further complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle. In this commentary, we argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human‐water systems should be explicitly addressed: feedbacks, scales, tradeoffs and inequalities. We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with complexity and develop policy‐relevant science.
Plain Language Summary
Several governments today claim to be following the science in addressing crises caused by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the emergence of global threats, such as climate change and COVID‐19. In this commentary, we show that there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do reservoirs alleviate droughts? We argue that the best science we have consists of a plurality of legitimate interpretations and a range of foresights, which can be enriched by integrating multiple disciplines and research methods.
Key Points
Accounting for both power relations and cognitive heuristics is key to unravel the interplay of floods, droughts and human societies
Flood and drought predictions are complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle
We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with uncertainty and develop policy‐relevant science
The objective of this study was to determine the effects of supplementing glycerol and soybean oil in drinking water on feed and water intake, calculated energy balance, and production performance of ...periparturient dairy cows. Ninety multiparous Holstein dairy cows were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 treatments: 1) no nutrients supplemented in the drinking water (control); 2) 20g/L of glycerin supplemented in the drinking water (glycerol); and 3) 10g/L of soybean oil supplemented in the drinking water (SBO). The trial lasted from 7 d prepartum to 7 d postpartum. Cows were offered a close-up and milking cow TMR for ad libitum intake, pre- and postpartum, respectively. The dry matter intake of cows supplemented with glycerol and SBO was lower than for the control cows throughout the experimental period but not different from each other. Water intake for the control cows was greater than the average for the glycerol and SBO cows prepartum, and greater than for SBO cows but similar to that of glycerol cows postpartum. Glycerol cows consumed more water than SBO cows. There were no differences in energy intake and energy balance of the cows pre- and postpartum. Serum triacylglycerol concentration for glycerol cows was lower than for the control and SBO cows prepartum and was lower than for the SBO cows postpartum. There were no differences in the serum nonesterified fatty acids and glucose concentrations throughout the experiment. There were no differences in the serum β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA) concentrations at parturition, but serum BHBA concentration of the glycerol cows was greater than for control and SBO cows during the prepartum period. However, during the postpartum period, serum BHBA concentrations of the control cows were greater than for glycerol and SBO cows. There were no differences in calf birth weights or milk yield and composition. Although the glucogenic property of glycerol supplemented in the drinking water at 20g/L may not have been sufficient to elicit a milk yield response, it did reduce the concentration of BHBA postpartum.
Tick-borne diseases (TBDs) constitute a major constraint for livestock development in sub-Saharan Africa, with East Coast fever (ECF) being the most devastating TBD of cattle. However, in Burundi, ...detailed information is lacking on the current prevalence of TBDs and on the associated economic losses from mortality and morbidity in cattle as well as the costs associated with TBD control and treatment. The aim of this study was, therefore, to assess the prevalence and spatial distribution of tick-borne pathogens (TBPs) in cattle across the major agro-ecological zones (AEZs) in Burundi.
In a cross-sectional study conducted in ten communes spanning the five main AEZs in Burundi, blood samples were taken from 828 cattle from 305 farms between October and December 2017. Evidence of Theileria parva infection was assessed by antibody level, measured using a polymorphic immunodominant molecule (PIM) antigen-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and by a T. parva-specific p104 gene-based nested PCR. Antibodies against Theileria mutans infection were detected using the 32-kDa antigen-based indirect ELISA, while the 200-kDa antigen and the major surface protein 5 (MSP5)-based indirect ELISA were used to detect antibodies against Babesia bigemina and Anaplasma marginale, respectively.
The prevalence of T. parva across the ten communes sampled ranged from 77.5 to 93.1% and from 67.8 to 90.0% based on the ELISA and PCR analysis, respectively. A statistically significant difference in infection was observed between calves and adult cattle; however, T. parva infection levels were not significantly associated with sex and breed. The seroprevalence indicating exposure to T. mutans, B. bigemina and A. marginale ranged from 30 to 92.1%, 33.7 to 90% and 50 to 96.2%, respectively. Mixed infections of TBPs were detected in 82.91% of cattle sampled, with 11 different combinations of pathogen species detected .
The findings indicate that T. parva, A. marginale and B. bigemina infections are endemic in Burundi. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of TBPs will facilitate the design of effective targeted strategies to control these diseases. There is a need for further investigations of the distribution of tick vectors and the population structure of TBPs in order to identify the key epidemiological factors contributing to TBD outbreaks in Burundi.
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