Research on the barriers and limits to climate change adaptation identifies many factors, but describes few processes whereby adaptation is constrained or may indeed fail to avoid catastrophic ...losses. It often assumes that barriers are by and large distinct from limits to adaptation. We respond to recent calls for comparative studies that are able to further knowledge about the underlying drivers of barriers and limits to adaptation. We compare six cases from across Australia, including those in alpine areas, rivers, reefs, wetlands, small inland communities, and islands, with the aim of identifying common underlying drivers of barriers and limits to adaptation. We find that the path-dependent nature of the institutions that govern natural resources and public goods is a deep driver of barriers and limits to adaptation. Path-dependent institutions are resistant to change. When this resistance causes the changes necessary for adaptation to be slower than changes in climate, then it becomes a limit to adaptation.
In this final paper, the guest editors identify and discuss ten guidelines emerging from the papers in this Special Issue on Decision-Support Tools for Climate Change Adaptation. The guidelines are ...arranged under three headings: foundational, design and construction, and supporting sustainability in the long term. Under foundational, we address the need for co-operation with end users of decision-support resources, the contribution these resources can make to the formation of thriving communities of practice, and the match between the different types of decision support and user needs. Under design and construction, we point to the risk that policy settings will change over the multiple years required to build and publish complex decision-support resources, reducing the relevance of the final product. We discuss the need for innovative approaches to ensure visibility, credibility and hence uptake. Developers should be mindful of the requirements, resources and capabilities of potential users at all points in the design and build. We also suggest that decision-support resources may be transferable between sectors and locations, but the motivation should be around achieving excellence, and not just cost savings. Under supporting sustainability in the long term, we stress the need for evaluation and comparative studies of performance, leading to carefully documented updating and improvement of decision-support resources. Finally, in the conclusions, we look to the future. Can decision-support resources evolve successfully to meet the information and guidance requirements of the increasingly sophisticated adaptation practitioner community?
•Simulations of building performance from sustainable interventions can aid in improving worker health and safety.•Modelling passive cooling strategies significantly improve worker exposures to ...unsafe heat exposures.•Retrofitting factories rooftops can offset a warming indoor environment through to mid-century in a high emissions climate change scenario.
The ready-made garment industry is critical to the Bangladesh economy. There is an urgent need to improve current working conditions and build capacity for heat mitigation as conditions worsen due to climate change. We modelled a typical, mid-sized, non-air-conditioned factory in Bangladesh and simulated how the indoor thermal environment is altered by four rooftop retrofits (1. extensive green roof, 2. rooftop shading, 3. white cool roof, 4. insulated white cool roof) on present-day and future decades under different climate scenarios. Simulations showed that all strategies reduce indoor air temperatures by around 2 °C on average and reduce the number of present-day annual work-hours during which wet-bulb globe temperature exceeds the standardised limits for moderate work rates by up to 603 h - the equivalent of 75 (8 h) working days per year. By 2050 under a high-emissions scenario, indoor conditions with a rooftop intervention are comparable to present-day conditions. To reduce the growing need for carbon-intensive air-conditioning, sustainable heat mitigation strategies need to be incorporated into a wider range of solutions at the individual, building, and urban level. The results presented here have implications for factory planning and retrofit design, and may inform policies targeting worker health, well-being, and productivity.
Precipitation Scenarios over Iberia Trigo, Ricardo M.; Palutikof, Jean P.
Journal of climate,
12/2001, Letnik:
14, Številka:
23
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The Iberian rainfall regime is characterized by a strong seasonal cycle and large interannual variability. Typically, frequency distributions of monthly precipitation present a large spread of ...values, implying frequent episodes of very wet or very dry years. Unfortunately, the most recent generation of general circulation models (GCMs) still has serious problems when modeling monthly precipitation over southern Europe. However, these models are able to reproduce the main patterns of atmospheric circulation, such as those derived from a principal component analysis of the sea level pressure anomaly field. Many downscaling techniques have been developed in recent years, all having in common the need to establish statistical links between the large-scale circulation and the observed precipitation at a local or regional scale. The final objective is usually the application of such transfer functions to GCM output.
In this work, linear and nonlinear downscaling transfer functions are developed based on artificial neural networks (ANNs), to downscale monthly precipitation to nine grid boxes over the Iberian Peninsula. The nonlinear ANN models were run 20 times, with different initial conditions, in order to study the stability of the final results. All the models were developed on a seasonal basis, calibrated between 1901 and 1940 and validated between 1941 and 1990. It was found that linear or slightly nonlinear ANN models (with just one node in the first layer) were more capable of reproducing the observed precipitation than more complex nonlinear ANN models. GCM data from a greenhouse gas–plus-sulfates run from the Hadley Centre Model (HadCM2) were used to reproduce present-day precipitation over Iberia. It was found that the precipitation characteristics (mean, variance, and empirical distribution) were better reproduced by the downscaled results than by the GCM direct output. Precipitation scenarios constructed for the future (2041–90) reveal an increase of precipitation in winter and small decreases in most sectors of Iberia for the spring and autumn seasons. Such scenarios are in good agreement with those obtained by other researchers using different downscaling techniques with HadCM2 data.
The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are complex existential threats, unpredictable in many ways and unprecedented in modern times. There are parallels between the scale and scope of their ...impacts and responses. Understanding shared drivers, coupled vulnerabilities, and criteria for effective responses will help societies worldwide prepare for the simultaneous threats of climate change and future pandemics. We summarize some shared characteristics of COVID-19 and climate change impacts and interventions and discuss key policy implications and recommendations.
RMG workers in Bangladesh are facing scorching heat due to regional climatic conditions and increasing temperatures due to climate change. This research investigates the indoor thermal condition of a ...ready-made garment (RMG) factory and develops strategies to improve the comfort of workers. Energy optimization is carried out and design features are identified (e.g. window, shading and skylight configurations) that achieve the best energy performance. Eight simulation steps are also carried out to accomplish the process towards the path to net zero energy building (NZEB). Simulation analysis is carried out to measure energy use intensity (EUI) over the year for the base case building. By changing various features, a further seven steps of simulation are carried out to reduce the EUI value and turn it into zero energy building. The EUI value is gradually decreased at each step. The research shows that nearly 750,000 kWh energy can be saved per year in the case RMG factory. The incorporation of photovoltaic (PV) panels can harvest approximately 40,000 kWh over the year.
We construct a novel individual-based random-walk model to assess how predicted global climate change might affect the dispersal rates of a temperate insect. Using a novel approach we obtained ...accurate field measurements of daily movements for individuals over time to parameterize our model. Males were found to move significantly further on average than females. Significant variation in movement was evident among individuals; the most dispersive individuals moved up to five (females) and seven (males) times as far on average as the least dispersive individuals. Mean relative daily movement of both males and females were exponentially related to maximum daily temperature recorded within the grass sward. Variability, both within and among individuals, in relative daily movement was incorporated into the model using gamma probability distributions. Resultant dispersal functions for seasonal movement are predicted to be highly leptokurtic, which agrees well with observations from the field. Predictions of the model suggest that for populations at the polewards edge of the current range an increase of 3-5 °C in daily maximum temperature may increase the proportion of long-distance dispersers (those characterized as comprising the top 0.1% of furthest dispersing individuals under local conditions experienced during the 1963-1990 period) by up to 70%.
This volume presents eighteen case studies of natural disasters from Australia, Europe, North America and developing countries. By comparing the impacts, it seeks to identify what moves people to ...adapt, which adaptive activities succeed and which fail, and the underlying reasons, and the factors that determine when adaptation is required and when simply bearing the impact may be the more appropriate response. Much has been written about the theory of adaptation, and high-level, especially international, policy responses to climate change. This book aims to inform actual adaptation practice - what works, what does not, and why. It explores some of the lessons we can learn from past disasters and the adaptation that takes place after the event in preparation for the next. This volume will be especially useful for researchers and decision makers in policy and government concerned with climate change adaptation, emergency management, disaster risk reduction, environmental policy and planning.
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