The academic picture of a globalized European countryside, and particularly of rural areas in postsocialist, new member states of the European Union, is one of huge and increasing complexity, ...diversity, and uncertainties about the future. The aim of this research is to construct alternative scenarios for rural Croatia in 2030, acknowledging its postsocialist transition as an important framework. Future development scenarios were constructed by integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches. The main methods used were: factor and cluster analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; and Delphi method, involving 37 rural experts in two rounds of written questionnaires. Four scenarios were developed: Rural Renaissance, Shift, Road to Nowhere, and Growth without Development. These scenarios provide a set of well-documented and reasonable assumptions to aid in thinking about possible future paths for the Croatian countryside, while at the same time allowing for the discussion of rural development paradigms.
According to recent research, modern development in Croatia is burdened by distinct regional disparities. As differences in socioeconomic development are the key generator of spatial mobility of the ...population, this is reflected in the atrophy of demographic resources of less developed areas, and consequently in the destabilization of their population. Due to the connections between economic and demographic development, the paper examines demographic resources as an indicator and factor in the disparities occurring in the regional development of the country. Demographic resources in 2001 and 2011 on three hierarchical levels of regional development and four spatial categories are explored, as well as the composite index of development of counties in 2013. The research process includes the calculation of synthetic indicators of demographic potential – the index of demographic resources (ider) and its evaluation within the typological scale of six threshold values. The research results show that: first, Croatia has a highly uneven spatial distribution of demographic resources; second, more than half the number of the counties belong to the first development category, and only three counties to the fourth development category; third, regions in the fourth development category are characterized by favorable demographic resources, while areas in the first category are characterized by weak demographic resources; and fourth, structural and dynamic characteristics of the index of demographic resources clearly indicate specific development problems in certain parts of the country.
According to recent research, modern development in Croatia is burdened by distinct regional disparities. As differences in socioeconomic development are the key generator of spatial mobility of the ...population, this is reflected in the atrophy of demographic resources of less developed areas, and consequently in the destabilization of their population. Due to the connections between economic and demographic development, the paper examines demographic resources as an indicator and factor in the disparities occurring in the regional development of the country. Demographic resources in 2001 and 2011 on three hierarchical levels of regional development and four spatial categories are explored, as well as the composite index of development of counties in 2013. The research process includes the calculation of synthetic indicators of demographic potential--the index of demographic resources (ider) and its evaluation within the typological scale of six threshold values. The research results show that: first, Croatia has a highly uneven spatial distribution of demographic resources; second, more than half the number of the counties belong to the first development category, and only three counties to the fourth development category; third, regions in the fourth development category are characterized by favorable demographic resources, while areas in the first category are characterized by weak demographic resources; and fourth, structural and dynamic characteristics of the index of demographic resources clearly indicate specific development problems in certain parts of the country. Keywords: regional development, index of demographic resources, composite development index, Croatia Suvremeni razvoj Hrvatske opterecen je izrazitim regionalnim disparitetima. Kako su razlike u socioekonomskoj razvijenosti kljucni generator prostorne pokretljivosti stanovnistva, to se odrazava i na atrofiju demografskih resursa slabije razvijenih podrucja, a na taj nacin i destabilizaciju njihove naseljenosti. Zbog uzajamne povezanosti gospodarskoga i demografskog razvoja, u radu su poblize razmotreni demografski resursi kao indikator i cimbenik dispariteta u regionalnom razvoju drzave. Istrazeni su demografski resursi 2001. i 2011. godine na tri hijerarhijske razine regionalnog razvoja i cetiri prostorne kategorije prema kompozitnom indeksu razvijenosti zupanija 2013. godine. Rezultati istrazivanja pokazuju da: prvo, Hrvatsku karakterizira izrazito neravnomjeran prostorni razmjestaj demografskih resursa; drugo, vise od polovine ukupnoga broja zupanija ulazi u I. kategoriju razvijenosti, a samo tri zupanije u IV kategoriju razvijenosti; trece, podrucja IV kategorije razvijenosti karakteriziraju povoljni demografski resursi, a podrucja I. kategorije slabi demografski resursi, i cetvrto, strukturna i dinamicka obiljezja indeksa demografskih resursa jasno indiciraju specificne razvojne probleme u pojedinim dijelovima zemlje. Kljucne rijeci: regionalni razvoj, indeks demografskih resursa, kompozitni indeks razvijenosti, Hrvatska
ABSTRACT IN ENGLISH: Differences in regional development have had great importance in determining the direction and intensity of the spatial redistribution of Croatia's population during the second ...half of the last century. Hence population polarisation and the damaging influence of the war from the first half of the 1990s have given rise to more or less intensive depopulation in the last period between censuses which has affected about 85% of the country's territory. The depopulation of counties as a result of Croatia's regional disparities in the period from 1961 to 2001 has been analysed in the paper, as well as the retroactive influence of population polarisation and economic activities on the existing regional development. Differences in the development of counties have been interpreted through the model of cumulative causality of the occurrence of regional disparity, while spatial distribution of the population between the less developed counties and the centres of polarised development has been examined through the relationship centre - periphery. The research has shown that the greatest developmental setback and consequent decline of population since the early 1960s has been registered by counties with a peripheral position and less developed main central settlement. Rapid ageing and the deteriorated vitality of the population, as a result of emigration processes until the early 1990s, and the damaging impact of the war which followed, caused the highest rates of depopulation also between 1991 and 2001. On the other hand, intensive spatial concentration of the population and subsequent differences in distribution of the work potential have resulted in the highest disparity of Croatia's regional development so far. Its poles are the City of Zagreb, i.e. the Zagreb Region (Grad Zagreb and Zagrebacka zupanija) and the Licko-Senjska County, the latter being also affected by the most intensive process of demographic extinction. // ABSTRACT IN GERMAN: Die regionalen Unterschiede im wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungsstand haben räumliche Verteilung sowie Siedlungsdichte der Bevölkerung Kroatiens in der zweiten Hälfte des 20. Jahrhunderts wesentlich beeinflusst. Die damit einhergehenden polarisierenden Siedlungstendenzen und die verheerenden Folgen des Kriegsgeschehens in der ersten Hälfte der 90er-Jahre hatten zur Folge, dass in der Zeit zwischen den letzten beiden Volkszählungen (1971 und 2001) auf etwa 85% des staatlichen Territoriums der Entvölkerungstrend mehr oder weniger stark ausgeprägt war. Diese Studie widmet sich der Untersuchung der Entvölkerung in den kroatischen Gespanschaften als einem Ergebnis der regionalen Entwicklungsdisparität im Zeitraum von 1961 bis 2001, ferner der Rückwirkung, den die Polarisierung von Besiedlung und wirtschaftlicher Tätigkeit auf die aktuelle regionale Entwicklung ausübte. Die jeweiligen Unterschiede im Entwicklungsstand der Gespanschaften werden erklärt anhand des Modells kumulativer Kausalität bei der Entstehung regionaler Entwicklungsdisparität, während die räumliche Verteilung der Bevölkerung auf die weniger entwickelten Gespanschaften einerseits und die Ballungszentren polarisierter Entwicklung andererseits anhand des Verhältnisses Zentrum-Peripherie beleuchtet wird. Die Untersuchung ergab, dass die peripher gelegenen Gespanschaften mit ihren weniger entwickelten Zentren am rückständigsten sind und daher den größten Bevölkerungsrückgang seit den 60er-Jahren des 20. Jahrhunderts zu verbuchen haben. Der beschleunigte Alterungsprozess und die verminderte Vitalität der Bevölkerung als Resultate der Abwanderung bis zum Beginn der 90er-Jahre sowie die verheerenden Kriegsfolgen der nachfolgenden Jahre hatten zur Folge, dass die Entvölkerungsrate auch im Zeitraum 1991-2001 in diesen Gespanschaften am höchsten war. Andererseits haben die Ballung der Bevölkerung in bestimmten städtischen Großräumen und die somit entstandenen Unterschiede in der Verteilung der arbeitsfähigen Bevölkerung die bislang größte Disparität in der regionalen Entwicklung Kroatiens nach sich gezogen. Die diesbezüglichen Pole sind der Großraum Zagreb (die Stadt Zagreb und die Zagreber Gespanschaft) als das bevölkerungsreichste Ballungszentrum des Landes und die Gespanschaft Lika-Senj, die am stärksten vom demografischen Aussterben bedroht ist. Reprinted by permission of Drustvena Istrazivanja
Lika is the most notable example of a periphery and also the most problematic region in Croatia. This work represents research into the region’s demographic development under the conditions of ...Croatia’s polarized development up to the beginning of the 1990s and the wartime and postwar events during the last intercensus period. The spatial scheme of analysis adheres to the sub regions and contemporary local government units. The results show that Lika and all of its sub-regions were beset by demographic devastation already during the 1980s. In the current period, it is characterized by extremely inauspicious demographic features, which seriously brings into question the possibility of revitalizing this region.
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