Climate change is driving latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in species distribution worldwide, leading to novel species assemblages. Lags between these biotic responses and contemporary climate ...changes have been reported for plants and animals. Theoretically, the magnitude of these lags should be greatest in lowland areas, where the velocity of climate change is expected to be much greater than that in highland areas. We compared temperature trends to temperatures reconstructed from plant assemblages (observed in 76,634 surveys) over a 44-year period in France (1965-2008). Here we report that forest plant communities had responded to 0.54 °C of the effective increase of 1.07 °C in highland areas (500-2,600 m above sea level), while they had responded to only 0.02 °C of the 1.11 °C warming trend in lowland areas. There was a larger temperature lag (by 3.1 times) between the climate and plant community composition in lowland forests than in highland forests. The explanation of such disparity lies in the following properties of lowland, as compared to highland, forests: the higher proportion of species with greater ability for local persistence as the climate warms, the reduced opportunity for short-distance escapes, and the greater habitat fragmentation. Although mountains are currently considered to be among the ecosystems most threatened by climate change (owing to mountaintop extinction), the current inertia of plant communities in lowland forests should also be noted, as it could lead to lowland biotic attrition.
Plant structural diversity is usually considered as beneficial for ecosystem functioning. For instance, numerous studies have reported positive species diversity-productivity relationships in plant ...communities. However, other aspects of structural diversity such as individual size inequality have been far less investigated. In forests, tree size inequality impacts directly tree growth and asymmetric competition, but consequences on forest productivity are still indeterminate. In addition, the effect of tree size inequality on productivity is likely to vary with species shade-tolerance, a key ecological characteristic controlling asymmetric competition and light resource acquisition. Using plot data from the French National Geographic Agency, we studied the response of stand productivity to size inequality for ten forest species differing in shade tolerance. We fitted a basal area stand production model that included abiotic factors, stand density, stand development stage and a tree size inequality index. Then, using a forest dynamics model we explored whether mechanisms of light interception and light use efficiency could explain the tree size inequality effect observed for three of the ten species studied. Size inequality negatively affected basal area increment for seven out of the ten species investigated. However, this effect was not related to the shade tolerance of these species. According to the model simulations, the negative tree size inequality effect could result both from reduced total stand light interception and reduced light use efficiency. Our results demonstrate that negative relationships between size inequality and productivity may be the rule in tree populations. The lack of effect of shade tolerance indicates compensatory mechanisms between effect on light availability and response to light availability. Such a pattern deserves further investigations for mixed forests where complementarity effects between species are involved. When studying the effect of structural diversity on ecosystem productivity, tree size inequality is a major facet that should be taken into account.
Key message
Different components of water balance and temperature reduce density and height growth of saplings of
Picea abies (L.) H. Karst
(Norway spruce),
Abies alba Mill.
(silver fir) and
Fagus ...sylvatica L.
(European beech) in mixed uneven-aged forests in the French Alps and Jura mountains. Ungulate browsing is an additional pressure on fir and beech that could jeopardise the renewal of these species in the future.
Context
The uncertainty in tree recruitment rates raises questions about the factors affecting regeneration processes in forests. Factors such as climate, light, competition and ungulate browsing pressure may play an important role in determining regeneration, forest structures and thus future forest composition.
Aims
The objective of this study was to quantify sapling densities and height increments of spruce, fir and beech and to identify dominant environmental variables influencing them in mixed uneven-aged forests in the French Alps and Jura mountains.
Methods
Sapling height increment and density were recorded in 152 plots, and non-linear mixed models were obtained to establish relations between them and environmental factors known to affect regeneration, namely altitude, slope, aspect, canopy openness, soil characteristics, temperature, precipitation and ungulate browsing.
Results
Regeneration density, varying from 0 to 7 saplings per m
2
, decreased with sapling height and was also negatively affected for spruce by PET, but positively for fir by precipitation and for beech by mean annual soil water content. Height increment reached up to 50 cm annually, increasing with sapling height and canopy openness and decreasing under high maximum summer temperatures for spruce and beech. The statistical effect of different environmental variables varied slightly among species but trends were quite similar. Additionally, ungulate browsing was high, with fir being the most intensely browsed, followed closely by beech, while spruce was rarely browsed.
Conclusions
All these results suggest that more temperature warming and a decrease in water availability could negatively impact sapling growth and density in the three species, with possible reduction of forest renewal fluxes. The observed increase of ungulate populations leading to increased browsing could be particularly detrimental to fir saplings.
Increases in tree mortality rates have been highlighted in different biomes over the past decades. However, disentangling the effects of climate change on the temporal increase in tree mortality from ...those of management and forest dynamics remains a challenge. Using a modelling approach taking tree and stand characteristics into account, we sought to evaluate the impact of climate change on background mortality for the most common European tree species. We focused on background mortality, which is the mortality observed in a stand in the absence of abrupt disturbances, to avoid confusion with mortality events unrelated to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall. We studied 372 974 trees including 7312 dead trees from forest inventory data surveyed across France between 2009 and 2015. Factors related to competition, stand characteristics, management intensity, and site conditions were the expected preponderant drivers of mortality. Taking these main drivers into account, we detected a climate change signal on 45% of the 43 studied species, explaining an average 6% of the total modelled mortality. For 18 out of the 19 species sensitive to climate change, we evidenced greater mortality with increasing temperature or decreasing rainfall. By quantifying the mortality excess linked to the current climate change for European temperate forest tree species, we provide new insights into forest vulnerability that will prove useful for adapting forest management to future conditions.
Key message
An influence of the recent changes in temperature or rainfall was demonstrated, increasing background tree mortality rates for 2/3 of the 12 studied tree species. Climate change-induced ...tree mortality was exacerbated towards the warm or dry limits of the species ranges, suggesting in these areas a progressive replacement by more xeric species.
Context
Despite the identification of climate change effects on tree mortality in various biomes, the characterization of species-specific areas of vulnerability remains poorly understood.
Aims
We sought to assess if the effects of temperature and rainfall changes on background tree mortality rates, which did not result from abrupt disturbances, were linked to climate change intensity only, or if they also depended on the tree’s location along climatic gradients.
Methods
We modelled background mortality for 12 of the most common European tree species using 265,056 trees including 4384 dead trees from the French national forest inventory. To explain mortality, we considered variables linked to tree characteristics, stand attributes, logging intensity and site environmental characteristics, and climate change effects.
Results
We found an influence of temperature and rainfall changes on 9 species out of 12. For 8 of them, climate change-induced tree mortality was exacerbated towards the warm or dry limits of the species ranges.
Conclusion
These results highlight that tree mortality varies according to the climate change intensity and the tree location along temperature and rainfall gradients. They strengthen the poleward and upward shifts of trees forecasted from climate envelope models for a large number of European tree species.
In 2022, Europe emerged from eight of the hottest years on record, leading to significant spruce mortality across Europe. The particularly dry weather conditions of 2018 triggered an outbreak of bark ...beetles (
Ips typographus
), causing the loss of thousands of hectares of Norway spruce stands, including in Wallonia and North-eastern France. A methodology for detecting the health status of spruce was developed based on a dense time series of satellite imagery (Sentinel-2). The time series of satellite images allowed the modelling of the spectral response of healthy spruce forests over the seasons: a decrease in photosynthetic activity of the forest canopy causes deviations from this normal seasonal vegetation index trajectory. These anomalies are caused by a bark beetle attack and are detected automatically. The method leads in the production of an annual spruce health map of Wallonia and Grand-Est. The goal of this paper is to assess the damage caused by bark beetle using the resulting spruce health maps. A second objective was to compare the influence of basic variables on the mortality of spruce trees in these two regions. Lasted 6 years (2017–2022), bark beetle has destroyed 12.2% (23,674 ha) of the spruce area in Wallonia and Grand-Est of France. This study area is composed of three bioclimatic areas: Plains, Ardennes and Vosges, which have not been equally affected by bark beetle attacks. The plains were the most affected, with 50% of spruce forests destroyed, followed by the Ardennes, which lost 11.3% of its spruce stands. The Vosges was the least affected bioclimatic area, with 5.6% of spruce stands lost. For the most problematic sites, Norway spruce forestry should no longer be considered.
Climate change modifies ecosystem processes directly through its effect on environmental conditions, but also indirectly by changing community composition. Theoretical studies and grassland ...experiments suggest that diversity may increase and stabilize communities’ productivity over time. Few recent studies on forest ecosystems suggested the same pattern but with a larger variability between the results. In this paper, we aimed to test stabilizing diversity effect for two kinds of mixtures (
Fagus sylvatica
–
Quercus pubescens
and
F. sylvatica
–
Abies alba
), and to assess how climate may affect the patterns. We used tree ring data from forest plots triplets distributed along a latitudinal gradient across French Alps, adapting NBE approach to study temporal stability. We found that diversity effect on stability in productivity varies with stand composition. Most beech-fir stands showed a greater stability in productivity over time than monocultures, while beech-oak stands showed a less stable productivity. Considering nonadditive effects, no significant trends were found, regardless of the type of mixed stands considered. We further highlighted that these patterns could be partially explained by asynchrony between species responses (notably to variation in temperature or precipitation), overyielding and climatic conditions. We also showed that the intensity of the diversity effect on stability varies along the ecological gradient, consistently with the stress gradient hypothesis for beech in beech-oak forests, but not for beech-fir forests. This study showed the importance of the species identity on the relationships between diversity, climate and stability of forest productivity. Better depicting diversity and composition effects on forest ecosystem functioning appears to be crucial for forest managers to promote forest adaptation and maintain timber resource in the context of ongoing climate change.
Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of ...limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.
A broad consensus has been reached on the need to adapt the management of our forests to the context of the rapidly changing climate, which resulted in the development of numerous models capable of ...simulating the impact of the climate change on the forest. The primary goal of this specific endeavor is to propose a novel framework of comparative analysis which could lead to the unique and universal description and mapping of these models. This framework is based on the reduction of the model output to the relatively simplistic information about the presence of the tree species suitable for the forest management i.e.,—a binary classifier, making it comparable with the largely available tree presence observations. The framework we propose comes along with a new score, based on the joint use of the Principal Component Analysis and the Co-inertia Analysis, which evaluates the model vis-á-vis the corresponding observations with the focus on its phase space dynamics, i.e., its dependence on external environmental variables, rather than its spatial precision. The pertinence of the proposed multi-scale approach, suitable for the multi-scale analysis, is demonstrated by conjointly using prototype binary classifiers, designed for this purpose, and two different examples of binary classifiers used in the forest management—climate-dependent tree species distribution models. This work has the ambition to serve as the basis for a potential combination of different models at different spatial scales in order to improve the decision-making process in the forest management.
Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche ...corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions.
The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K) and population density (N) relate to occurrence probability (P
occ
). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Québec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments.
Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P
occ
, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P
occ
. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.
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