The aim of this paper is to identify the basic characteristics of organic production in the agricultural sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina in terms of determining the scope, trends and flows in the ...selected time period. In terms of competitiveness, special emphasis is placed on the position of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the region. That is, a comparative review with the countries of the region according to the available indicators of organic production within the data of the Research Institute for Organic Production (FiBL). The analysis is focused on the changes of relevant indicators for Bosnia and Herzegovina and the countries of the region in the period from 2010 to 2020. The analysis was made using methods of dynamic analysis (index numbers, average annual rate of change, trend) and comparison methods. The results of the research can be a starting point for policy makers in support of the development of the agricultural sector.
The article investigates the relationship between unemployment rate and development indicators: (1) the GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Parities (PPP in current international $); and (2) the ...Internet penetration rate, defined as the percentage of Internet users per 100 people. For 34 countries in 2013, only two simple linear regression models based on natural logarithms of data and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator appeared to be useful. The simple linear regression Model 1 shows a negative correlation between the main variable under study lnYUemRate and the regressor lnXGDPpc, explaining nearly half of the total variation. The simple linear regression Model 2 shows a negative correlation between lnYUemRate and lnXIntUse, explaining 27 % of the total sum of squares. Regarding clustering of 34 countries based on three variables, the Ward linkage and squared Euclidean distances gave an interesting four-cluster solution. The South-East European (SEE), and especially to the Western Balkan's countries (WBC) are focused. These countries, spread in three clusters, are not homogeneous. Bosnia and Herzegovina and R. Macedonia are with Spain and Greece, all having difficult economic situation. Albania, Montenegro and Serbia are with Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, all being the SEEC. Croatia is with more developed Italy, Cyprus and Poland, and with less developed Portugal. Central European Slovenia, joined more developed countries of that area, but the most developed European countries comprised a cluster of their own.
Abstract This special issue of Business Systems Research is highlights recent advances and trends in post-transition countries, taking into account statistical modelling approach. Nine papers that ...have been selected for this special issue present improvements and new techniques (methodology) in statistical modelling and their use in various aspects of development in post-transition countries
The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&H). Its aim is to determine the ...most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H was selected on the basis of a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models. Based on the obtained results, the most efficient model for forecasting quarterly GDP of B&H is the bridge model, which includes four variables as regressor: Retail sale of other goods, Total loans, Manufacturing and Manufacture of food products.
The aim of this paper is to identify the basic characteristics of foreign trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina in terms of determining the volume, trends, geographic orientation, production structure and ...level of concentration of export-import flows in the selected time period, with emphasis on its trade with major partners, such as the EU and CEFTA. A special emphasis has been placed on exports as a driver of growth and development of the domestic economy. In order for the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina to grow, creating jobs and increasing economic welfare of its citizens, it must focus on international trade, particularly the increase in the volume and value of exports. To say that the export is a requirement for survival may sound dramatic, but there can be no doubt that our country needs to improve its trading result. This reflects the importance of foreign trade. The focus of the analysis is placed on the dynamics and structure of the total exchange of BIH in the period from 2004 to 2018. Analysis was done using the appropriate method of dynamic analysis (index methods, average annual growth rate). The main results indicate not so positive trends for international trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In the most developed countries the first estimations of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are available 30 days after the end of the reference quarter. In this paper, possibilities of creating an ...econometric model for making short-term forecasts of GDP in B&H have been explored. The database consists of more than 100 daily, monthly and quarterly time series for the period 2006q1-2016q4. The aim of this study was to estimate and validate different factor models. Due to the length limit of the series, the factor analysis included 12 time series which had a correlation coefficient with a quarterly GDP at the absolute value greater than 0.8. The principal component analysis (PCA) and the orthogonal varimax rotation of the initial solution were applied. Three principal components are extracted from the set of the series, thus together accounting for 73.34% of the total variability of the given set of series. The final choice of the model for forecasting quarterly B&H GDP was selected based on a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models for the in-sample period and for the out-of-sample period. The unbiasedness and efficiency of individual forecasts were tested using the Mincer-Zarnowitz regression, while a comparison of the accuracy of forecast of two models was tested by the Diebold-Mariano test. We have examined the justification of a combination of two forecasts using the Granger-Ramanathan regression. A factor model involving three factors has shown to be the most efficient factor model for forecasting quarterly B&H GDP.
In this article, we propose a new methodology for solving the vendor selection and the supply quotas determination problem. The proposed methodology combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for ...determining the coefficients of the objective functions and a new multiple objective programming method based on the cooperative game theory for vendor selection and supply quotas determination. The proposed methodology is tested on the problem of flour purchase by a company that manufactures bakery products. For vendor selection and supply quotas determination we use three complex criteria: (1) purchasing costs, (2) product quality, and (3) vendor reliability.
Unlike the standard unidimensional poverty indices, based mostly on monetary poverty measures, multidimensional poverty indices may include numerous non-monetary poverty indicators. This study ...utilized fuzzy and Alkire – Foster (AF) and fuzzy methodology to assess the poverty level in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H) and to compare the results with official poverty assessments. In addition to consumption as a monetary measure, we constructed AF and fuzzy indices by including numerous non-monetary measures that indicate housing quality, possession of durable goods and the household structure. AF multidimensional indices for B&H are calculated based on data from Household Budget Surveys (2004, 2007 and 2011) and fuzzy poverty indices are calculated based on data from HBS 2011. This research has found the differences in the values, direction and dynamics between unidimensional and multidimensional approaches to poverty measurement. Authors state that it is not sufficient to base the creation of more efficient social policies and poverty reduction strategies exclusively on unidimensional indices that address just one dimension of poverty.
This research is designed to examine the relationship between the capital structure and profitability of non-financial firms in Bosnia and Herzegovina during the ten years period, from 2003-2012. The ...goal is to prove the existence of the relationship between the firm’s capital structure choice and its profitability. The analysis is extended by including the debt structure and differentiating between the types of debt such as the long-term and the short-term ones. Canonical correlation and multiple regression analysis are used. The results of the multivariate canonical correlation analysis provide support to a hypothesis that the capital structure and profitability have statistically significant relationships. Furthermore, the findings provide support that firms develop different patterns of profitability depending on the capital structure choice. We found that an increasing proportion of short-term debt and long-term debt in the overall liability of the firm reduces its profitability.
The aim of this study was to look for any secular trend in the stature of Balkan populations from the time of World War II (1939-1945) to the Balkans War (1991-1995). The research was based on the ...examination of exhumed skeletons of 202 men killed in World War II in the area of the Republic of Slovenia, and 243 men killed in the Bosnian War in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The length measurements of the right and left humerus, femur, tibia and fibula were taken. Since the results revealed no significant differences and the left-sided bones were more complete and recurrent in the sample, the bones of the left side were used in the analysis. Since the increase in height depends mostly on the increase in length of the long bones, with an average absolute change of about 0.28 cm for humerus, 0.55 cm for femur, 0.49 cm for tibia and 0.20 cm for fibula per decade in our case, these results suggest a significant increase of the height of the Balkans population. The difference of the sum of the average femur and tibia length for the study period was 4.13 cm. Recalculated average length increase of the sum length of femur and tibia per decade was 0.88 cm for the left side. Our study revealed that there was a trend towards increased long bone lengths, at least in the male population analyzed.
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