Aim Elucidating the environmental limits of coral reefs is central to projecting future impacts of climate change on these ecosystems and their global distribution. Recent developments in species ...distribution modelling (SDM) and the availability of comprehensive global environmental datasets have provided an opportunity to reassess the environmental factors that control the distribution of coral reefs at the global scale as well as to compare the performance of different SDM techniques. Location Shallow waters world‐wide. Methods The SDM methods used were maximum entropy (Maxent) and two presence/absence methods: classification and regression trees (CART) and boosted regression trees (BRT). The predictive variables considered included sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, aragonite saturation state (ΩArag), nutrients, irradiance, water transparency, dust, current speed and intensity of cyclone activity. For many variables both mean and SD were considered, and at weekly, monthly and annually averaged time‐scales. All were transformed to a global 1° × 1° grid to generate coral reef probability maps for comparison with known locations. Model performance was compared in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) scores. Potential geographical bias was explored via misclassification maps of false positive and negative errors on test data. Results Boosted regression trees consistently outperformed other methods, although Maxent also performed acceptably. The dominant environmental predictors were the temperature variables (annual mean SST, and monthly and weekly minimum SST), followed by, and with their relative importance differing between regions, nutrients, light availability and ΩArag. No systematic bias in SDM performance was found between major coral provinces, but false negatives were more likely for cells containing ‘marginal’ non‐reef‐forming coral communities, e.g. Bermuda. Main conclusions Agreement between BRT and Maxent models gives predictive confidence for exploring the environmental limits of coral reef ecosystems at a spatial scale relevant to global climate models (c. 1° × 1°). Although SST‐related variables dominate the coral reef distribution models, contributions from nutrients, ΩArag and light availability were critical in developing models of reef presence in regions such as the Bahamas, South Pacific and Coral Triangle. The steep response in SST‐driven probabilities at low temperatures indicates that latitudinal expansion of coral reef habitat is very sensitive to global warming.
The growth of the Tibetan Plateau throughout the past 66 million years has profoundly affected the Asian climate, but how this unparalleled orogenesis might have driven vegetation and plant diversity ...changes in eastern Asia is poorly understood. We approach this question by integrating modeling results and fossil data. We show that growth of north and northeastern Tibet affects vegetation and, crucially, plant diversity in eastern Asia by altering the monsoon system. This northern Tibetan orographic change induces a precipitation increase, especially in the dry (winter) season, resulting in a transition from deciduous broadleaf vegetation to evergreen broadleaf vegetation and plant diversity increases across southeastern Asia. Further quantifying the complexity of Tibetan orographic change is critical for understanding the finer details of Asian vegetation and plant diversity evolution.
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION IN DEEP TIME KUMP, LEE R.; BRALOWER, TIMOTHY J.; RIDGWELL, ANDY
Oceanography (Washington, D.C.),
12/2009, Letnik:
22, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Is there precedence in Earth history for the rapid release of carbon dioxide (CO₂) by fossil fuel burning and its environmental consequences? Proxy evidence indicates that atmospheric CO₂ ...concentrations were higher during long warm intervals in the geologic past, and that these conditions did not prevent the precipitation and accumulation of calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) as limestone; accumulation of alkalinity brought to the ocean by rivers kept surface waters supersaturated. But these were steady states, not perturbations. More rapid additions of carbon dioxide during extreme events in Earth history, including the end-Permian mass extinction (251 million years ago) and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 million years ago) may have driven surface waters to undersaturation, although the evidence supporting this assertion is weak. Nevertheless, observations and modeling clearly show that during the PETM the deep ocean, at least, became highly corrosive to CaCO₃. These same models applied to modern fossil fuel release project a substantial decline in surface water saturation state in the next century. So, there may be no precedent in Earth history for the type of disruption we might expect from the phenomenally rapid rate of carbon addition associated with fossil fuel burning.
The rise of eukaryotes to ecological prominence represents one of the most dramatic shifts in the history of Earth's biosphere. However, there is an enigmatic temporal lag between the emergence of ...eukaryotic organisms in the fossil record and their much later ecological expansion. In parallel, there is evidence for a secular increase in the availability of the key macronutrient phosphorus (P) in Earth's oceans. Here, we use an Earth system model equipped with a size‐structured marine ecosystem to explore relationships between plankton size, trophic complexity, and the availability of marine nutrients. We find a strong dependence of planktonic ecosystem structure on ocean nutrient abundance, with a larger ocean nutrient inventory leading to greater overall biomass, broader size spectra, and increasing abundance of large Zooplankton. If existing estimates of Proterozoic marine nutrient levels are correct, our results suggest that increases in the ecological impact of eukaryotic algae and trophic complexity in eukaryotic ecosystems were directly linked to restructuring of the global P cycle associated with the protracted rise of surface oxygen levels. Our results thus suggest an indirect but potentially important mechanism by which ocean oxygenation may have acted to shape marine ecological function during late Proterozoic time.
Temperature is a master parameter in the marine carbon cycle, exerting a critical control on the rate of biological transformation of a variety of solid and dissolved reactants and substrates. ...Although in the construction of numerical models of marine carbon cycling, temperature has been long recognised as a key parameter in the production and export of organic matter at the ocean surface, its role in the ocean interior is much less frequently accounted for. There, bacteria (primarily) transform sinking particulate organic matter (POM) into its dissolved constituents and consume dissolved oxygen (and/or other electron acceptors such as sulfate). The nutrients and carbon thereby released then become available for transport back to the surface, influencing biological productivity and atmospheric pCO.sub.2, respectively. Given the substantial changes in ocean temperature occurring in the past, as well as in light of current anthropogenic warming, appropriately accounting for the role of temperature in marine carbon cycling may be critical to correctly projecting changes in ocean deoxygenation and the strength of feedbacks on atmospheric pCO.sub.2.
Predicting the impact of ongoing anthropogenic CO ₂ emissions on calcifying marine organisms is complex, owing to the synergy between direct changes (acidification) and indirect changes through ...climate change (e.g., warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation). Laboratory experiments, particularly on longer-lived organisms, tend to be too short to reveal the potential of organisms to acclimatize, adapt, or evolve and usually do not incorporate multiple stressors. We studied two examples of rapid carbon release in the geological record, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (∼53.2 Ma) and the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ∼55.5 Ma), the best analogs over the last 65 Ma for future ocean acidification related to high atmospheric CO ₂ levels. We use benthic foraminifers, which suffered severe extinction during the PETM, as a model group. Using synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy, we reconstruct the calcification response of survivor species and find, contrary to expectations, that calcification significantly increased during the PETM. In contrast, there was no significant response to the smaller Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, which was associated with a minor change in diversity only. These observations suggest that there is a response threshold for extinction and calcification response, while highlighting the utility of the geological record in helping constrain the sensitivity of biotic response to environmental change.
The coupled biogeochemical cycles of iron and sulfur are central to the long-term biogeochemical evolution of Earth's oceans. For instance, before the development of a persistently oxygenated deep ...ocean, the ocean interior likely alternated between states buffered by reduced sulfur ("euxinic") and buffered by reduced iron ("ferruginous"), with important implications for the cycles and hence bioavailability of dissolved iron (and phosphate). Even after atmospheric oxygen concentrations rose to modern-like values, the ocean episodically continued to develop regions of euxinic or ferruginous conditions, such as those associated with past key intervals of organic carbon deposition (e.g. during the Cretaceous) and extinction events (e.g. at the Permian-Triassic boundary). A better understanding of the cycling of iron and sulfur in an anoxic ocean, how geochemical patterns in the ocean relate to the available spatially heterogeneous geological observations, and quantification of the feedback strengths between nutrient cycling, biological productivity, and ocean redox requires a spatially resolved representation of ocean circulation together with an extended set of (bio)geochemical reactions.
Global warming lowers the solubility of gases in the ocean and drives an enhanced hydrological cycle with increased nutrient loads delivered to the oceans, leading to increases in organic production, ...the degradation of which causes a further decrease in dissolved oxygen. In extreme cases in the geological past, this trajectory has led to catastrophic marine oxygen depletion during the so‐called oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). How the water column oscillated between generally oxic conditions and local/global anoxia remains a challenging question, exacerbated by a lack of sensitive redox proxies, especially for the suboxic window. To address this problem, we use bulk carbonate I/Ca to reconstruct subtle redox changes in the upper ocean water column at seven sites recording the Cretaceous OAE 2. In general, I/Ca ratios were relatively low preceding and during the OAE interval, indicating deep suboxic or anoxic waters exchanging directly with near‐surface waters. However, individual sites display a wide range of initial values and excursions in I/Ca through the OAE interval, reflecting the importance of local controls and suggesting a high spatial variability in redox state. Both I/Ca and an Earth System Model suggest that the northeast proto‐Atlantic had notably higher oxygen levels in the upper water column than the rest of the North Atlantic, indicating that anoxia was not global during OAE 2 and that important regional differences in redox conditions existed. A lack of correlation with calcium, lithium, and carbon isotope records suggests that neither enhanced global weathering nor carbon burial was a dominant control on the I/Ca proxy during OAE 2.
Key Points
Upper ocean oxygenation levels are highly dynamic across OAE 2
A shallow O2 oasis in proto‐Atlantic is supported by proxy and model
I/Ca is a proxy for local redox, not for weathering and carbon burial
The methane (CH4) cycle is a key component of the Earth system that links planetary climate, biological metabolism, and the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon, oxygen, sulfur, and hydrogen. ...However, currently lacking is a numerical model capable of simulating a diversity of environments in the ocean, where CH4 can be produced and destroyed, and with the flexibility to be able to explore not only relatively recent perturbations to Earth's CH4 cycle but also to probe CH4 cycling and associated climate impacts under the very low-O2 conditions characteristic of most of Earth's history and likely widespread on other Earth-like planets. Here, we present a refinement and expansion of the ocean–atmosphere CH4 cycle in the intermediate-complexity Earth system model cGENIE, including parameterized atmospheric O2–O3–CH4 photochemistry and schemes for microbial methanogenesis, aerobic methanotrophy, and anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). We describe the model framework, compare model parameterizations against modern observations, and illustrate the flexibility of the model through a series of example simulations. Though we make no attempt to rigorously tune default model parameters, we find that simulated atmospheric CH4 levels and marine dissolved CH4 distributions are generally in good agreement with empirical constraints for the modern and recent Earth. Finally, we illustrate the model's utility in understanding the time-dependent behavior of the CH4 cycle resulting from transient carbon injection into the atmosphere, and we present model ensembles that examine the effects of atmospheric pO2, oceanic dissolved SO42-, and the thermodynamics of microbial metabolism on steady-state atmospheric CH4 abundance. Future model developments will address the sources and sinks of CH4 associated with the terrestrial biosphere and marine CH4 gas hydrates, both of which will be essential for comprehensive treatment of Earth's CH4 cycle during geologically recent time periods.
The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is sensitive to changes in the depth at which sinking particulate organic matter is remineralized: often described as a change in the exponent “b” of the ...Martin curve. Sediment trap observations from deep and intermediate depths suggest there is a spatially heterogeneous pattern of b, particularly varying with latitude, but disagree over the exact spatial patterns. Here we use a biogeochemical model of the phosphorus cycle coupled with a steady-state representation of ocean circulation to explore the sensitivity of preformed phosphate and atmospheric CO2 to spatial variability in remineralization depths. A Latin hypercube sampling method is used to simultaneously vary the Martin curve independently within 15 different regions, as a basis for a regression-based analysis used to derive a quantitative measure of sensitivity. Approximately 30 % of the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to changes in remineralization depths is driven by changes in the subantarctic region (36 to 60∘ S) similar in magnitude to the Pacific basin despite the much smaller area and lower export production. Overall, the absolute magnitude of sensitivity is controlled by export production, but the relative spatial patterns in sensitivity are predominantly constrained by ocean circulation pathways. The high sensitivity in the subantarctic regions is driven by a combination of high export production and the high connectivity of these regions to regions important for the export of preformed nutrients such as the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. Overall, regionally varying remineralization depths contribute to variability in CO2 of between around 5 and 15 ppm, relative to a global mean change in remineralization depth. Future changes in the environmental and ecological drivers of remineralization, such as temperature and ocean acidification, are expected to be most significant in the high latitudes where CO2 sensitivity to remineralization is also highest. The importance of ocean circulation pathways to the high sensitivity in subantarctic regions also has significance for past climates given the importance of circulation changes in the Southern Ocean.
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