The skills of isotope‐enabled general circulation models are evaluated against atmospheric water vapor isotopes. We have combined in situ observations of surface water vapor isotopes spanning ...multiple field seasons (2010, 2011, and 2012) from the top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (NEEM site: 77.45°N, 51.05°W, 2484 m above sea level) with observations from the marine boundary layer of the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean (Bermuda Islands 32.26°N, 64.88°W, year: 2012; south coast of Iceland 63.83°N, 21.47°W, year: 2012; South Greenland 61.21°N, 47.17°W, year: 2012; Svalbard 78.92°N, 11.92°E, year: 2014). This allows us to benchmark the ability to simulate the daily water vapor isotope variations from five different simulations using isotope‐enabled general circulation models. Our model‐data comparison documents clear isotope biases both on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet (1–11‰ for δ18O and 4–19‰ for d‐excess depending on model and season) and in the marine boundary layer (maximum differences for the following: Bermuda δ18O = ~1‰, d‐excess = ~3‰; South coast of Iceland δ18O = ~2‰, d‐excess = ~ 5‰; South Greenland δ18O = ~4‰, d‐excess = ~7‰; Svalbard δ18O = ~2‰, d‐excess = ~7‰). We find that the simulated isotope biases are not just explained by simulated biases in temperature and humidity. Instead, we argue that these isotope biases are related to a poor simulation of the spatial structure of the marine boundary layer water vapor isotopic composition. Furthermore, we specifically show that the marine boundary layer water vapor isotopes of the Baffin Bay region show strong influence on the water vapor isotopes at the NEEM deep ice core‐drilling site in northwest Greenland. Our evaluation of the simulations using isotope‐enabled general circulation models also documents wide intermodel spatial variability in the Arctic. This stresses the importance of a coordinated water vapor isotope‐monitoring network in order to discriminate amongst these model behaviors.
Key Points
We present a metric for comparing model simulations with in situ atmospheric water vapor isotope observations
Model artifacts for temperature and humidity cannot simply explain isotope biases on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet
All models show inability to correctly simulate the spatial structure of marine boundary layer isotopic composition
We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections ...using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.
Since September 2011, a wavelength-scanned cavity ring-down spectroscopy analyser has been remotely operated in Ivittuut, southern Greenland, providing the first record of surface water vapour ...isotopic composition based on continuous measurements in South Greenland and the first record including the winter season in Greenland. The comparison of vapour data with measurements of precipitation isotopic composition suggest an equilibrium between surface vapour and precipitation. δ18O and deuterium excess are generally anti-correlated and show important seasonal variations, with respective amplitudes of ~10 and ~20‰, as well as large synoptic variations. The data depict small summer diurnal variations. At the seasonal scale, δ18O has a minimum in November–December and a maximum in June–July, while deuterium excess has a minimum in May–June and a maximum in November. The approach of low-pressure systems towards South Greenland leads to δ18O increase (typically +5‰) and deuterium excess decrease (typically −15‰). Seasonal and synoptic variations coincide with shifts in the moisture sources, estimated using a quantitative moisture source diagnostic based on a Lagrangian back-trajectory model. The atmospheric general circulation model LMDZiso correctly captures the seasonal and synoptic variability of δ18O, but does not capture the observed magnitude of deuterium excess variability. Covariations of water vapour isotopic composition with local and moisture source meteorological parameters have been evaluated. δ18O is strongly correlated with the logarithm of local surface humidity, consistent with Rayleigh distillation processes, and with local surface air temperature, associated with a slope of ~0.4‰ °C−1. Deuterium excess correlates with local surface relative humidity as well as surface relative humidity from the dominant moisture source area located in the North Atlantic, south of Greenland and Iceland.
Measurements of precipitation isotopic composition have been conducted on a daily basis for 1 yr at Bomi, in the southeast Tibetan Plateau, an area affected by the interaction of the southwest ...monsoon, the westerlies, and Tibetan high pressure systems, as well as at Lhasa, situated west of Bomi. The measured isotope signals are analyzed both on an event basis and on a seasonal scale using available meteorological information and airmass trajectories. The processes driving daily and seasonal isotopic variability are investigated using multidecadal climate simulations forced by twentieth-century boundary conditions and conducted with two different isotopic atmospheric general circulation models the isotopic version of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique GCM (LMDZiso) and the ECHAM4iso model. Both models use specific nudging techniques to mimic observed atmospheric circulation fields. The models simulate a wet and cold bias on the Tibetan Plateau together with a dry bias in its southern part. A zoomed LMDZ simulation conducted with ∼50-km local spatial resolution dramatically improves the simulation of isotopic compositions of precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau. Simulated water isotope fields are compared with new data and with previous observations, and regional differences in moisture origins are analyzed using back-trajectories. Here, the focus is on relationships between the water isotopes and climate variables on an event and seasonal scale and in terms of spatial and altitudinal isotopic gradients. Enhancing the spatial resolution is crucial for improving the simulation of the precipitation isotopic composition.
We present here surface water vapor isotopic measurements conducted from June to August 2010 at the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Drilling Project) camp, NW Greenland (77.45° N, 51.05° W, 2484 m ...a.s.l.). Measurements were conducted at 9 different heights from 0.1 m to 13.5 m above the snow surface using two different types of cavity-enhanced near-infrared absorption spectroscopy analyzers. For each instrument specific protocols were developed for calibration and drift corrections. The inter-comparison of corrected results from different instruments reveals excellent reproducibility, stability, and precision with a standard deviations of ~ 0.23‰ for δ18O and ~ 1.4‰ for δD. Diurnal and intraseasonal variations show strong relationships between changes in local surface humidity and water vapor isotopic composition, and with local and synoptic weather conditions. This variability probably results from the interplay between local moisture fluxes, linked with firn–air exchanges, boundary layer dynamics, and large-scale moisture advection. Particularly remarkable are several episodes characterized by high (> 40‰) surface water vapor deuterium excess. Air mass back-trajectory calculations from atmospheric analyses and water tagging in the LMDZiso (Laboratory of Meteorology Dynamics Zoom-isotopic) atmospheric model reveal that these events are associated with predominant Arctic air mass origin. The analysis suggests that high deuterium excess levels are a result of strong kinetic fractionation during evaporation at the sea-ice margin.
Samples of precipitation and atmospheric water vapor were collected together with shallow firn/ice cores as part of the new deep drilling project in northwest Greenland: the NEEM project. These ...samples were analyzed for their isotope composition to understand the processes affecting the climatic signal archived in the water stable isotope records from the NEEM deep ice core. The dominant moisture source for the snow deposited at the NEEM‐site may be originating as far south as 35°N from the western part of the Atlantic Ocean. The surface atmospheric water vapor appears in isotopic equilibrium with the snow surface indicating a large water exchange between the atmosphere and snowpack. The interannual variability of NEEM shallow firn/ice cores stable isotope data covering the last ∼40 years shows an unexpectedly weak NAO signal. Regional to global atmospheric models simulate a dominant summer precipitation in the NEEM area, suggesting that the intermittency of modern winter precipitation is responsible for the lack of a strong NAO imprint. The interannual variability of NEEM isotope data however shows a strong correlation with interannual variations of Baffin Bay sea ice cover, a relationship consistent with air mass trajectories. NEEM deep ice core isotopic records may therefore provide detailed information on past Baffin Bay sea ice extent. NEEM stable water isotope content increasing trend points to a local warming trend of ∼3.0°C over the last 40 years.
Water stable isotopes in Greenland ice core data provide key paleoclimatic information, and have been compared with precipitation isotopic composition simulated by isotopically enabled atmospheric ...models. However, post-depositional processes linked with snow metamorphism remain poorly documented. For this purpose, monitoring of the isotopic composition (δ18O, δD) of near-surface water vapor, precipitation and samples of the top (0.5 cm) snow surface has been conducted during two summers (2011–2012) at NEEM, NW Greenland. The samples also include a subset of 17O-excess measurements over 4 days, and the measurements span the 2012 Greenland heat wave. Our observations are consistent with calculations assuming isotopic equilibrium between surface snow and water vapor. We observe a strong correlation between near-surface vapor δ18O and air temperature (0.85 ± 0.11‰ °C−1 (R = 0.76) for 2012). The correlation with air temperature is not observed in precipitation data or surface snow data. Deuterium excess (d-excess) is strongly anti-correlated with δ18O with a stronger slope for vapor than for precipitation and snow surface data. During nine 1–5-day periods between precipitation events, our data demonstrate parallel changes of δ18O and d-excess in surface snow and near-surface vapor. The changes in δ18O of the vapor are similar or larger than those of the snow δ18O. It is estimated using the CROCUS snow model that 6 to 20% of the surface snow mass is exchanged with the atmosphere. In our data, the sign of surface snow isotopic changes is not related to the sign or magnitude of sublimation or deposition. Comparisons with atmospheric models show that day-to-day variations in near-surface vapor isotopic composition are driven by synoptic variations and changes in air mass trajectories and distillation histories. We suggest that, in between precipitation events, changes in the surface snow isotopic composition are driven by these changes in near-surface vapor isotopic composition. This is consistent with an estimated 60% mass turnover of surface snow per day driven by snow recrystallization processes under NEEM summer surface snow temperature gradients. Our findings have implications for ice core data interpretation and model–data comparisons, and call for further process studies.
The description of the hydrological cycle in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) can be validated using water isotopes as tracers. Many GCMs now simulate the movement of the stable isotopes ...of water, but here we present the first GCM simulations modelling the content of natural tritium in water. These simulations were obtained using a version of the LMDZ General Circulation Model enhanced by water isotopes diagnostics, LMDZ-iso. To avoid tritium generated by nuclear bomb testing, the simulations have been evaluated against a compilation of published tritium datasets dating from before 1950, or measured recently. LMDZ-iso correctly captures the observed tritium enrichment in precipitation as oceanic air moves inland (the so-called continental effect) and the observed north–south variations due to the latitudinal dependency of the cosmogenic tritium production rate. The seasonal variability, linked to the stratospheric intrusions of air masses with higher tritium content into the troposphere, is correctly reproduced for Antarctica with a maximum in winter. LMDZ-iso reproduces the spring maximum of tritium over Europe, but underestimates it and produces a peak in winter that is not apparent in the data. This implementation of tritium in a GCM promises to provide a better constraint on: (1) the intrusions and transport of air masses from the stratosphere, and (2) the dynamics of the modelled water cycle. The method complements the existing approach of using stable water isotopes.
•Natural tritium (HTO) has been implemented in the AGCM LMDZ-iso.•LMDZ-iso correctly captures the observed continental and latitudinal effects.•Best results with the lower range of Masarik and Beer production rate (−30%).•We reproduce the tritium winter peak in Antarctica due to stratospheric injections.
Global warming is associated with large increases in surface air temperature in Siberia. Here, we apply the isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso to explore the potential ...of water isotope measurements at a recently opened monitoring station in Kourovka (57.04° N, 59.55° E) in order to successfully trace climate change in western Siberia. Our model is constrained to atmospheric reanalysis fields for the period 1957–2013 to facilitate the comparison with observations of δD in total column water vapour from the GOSAT satellite, and with precipitation δ18O measurements from 15 Russian stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. The model captures the observed Russian climate within reasonable error margins, and displays the observed isotopic gradients associated with increasing continentality and decreasing meridional temperatures. The model also reproduces the observed seasonal cycle of δ18O, which parallels the seasonal cycle of temperature and ranges from −25 ‰ in winter to −5 ‰ in summer. Investigating West Siberian climate and precipitation δ18O variability during the last 50 years, we find long-term increasing trends in temperature and δ18O, while precipitation trends are uncertain. During the last 50 years, winter temperatures have increased by 1.7 °C. The simulated long-term increase of precipitation δ18O is at the detection limit (<1 ‰ per 50 years) but significant. West Siberian climate is characterized by strong interannual variability, which in winter is strongly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In winter, regional temperature is the predominant factor controlling δ18O variations on interannual to decadal timescales with a slope of about 0.5 ‰ °C−1. In summer, the interannual variability of δ18O can be attributed to short-term, regional-scale processes such as evaporation and convective precipitation. This finding suggests that precipitation δ18O has the potential to reveal hydrometeorological regime shifts in western Siberia which are otherwise difficult to identify. Focusing on Kourovka, the simulated evolution of temperature, δ18O and, to a smaller extent, precipitation during the last 50 years is synchronous with model results averaged over all of western Siberia, suggesting that this site will be representative to monitor future isotopic changes in the entire region.
In this paper we retrieve atmospheric HDO, H2O concentrations and their ratio δD from IASI radiances spectra. Our method relies on an existing radiative transfer model (Atmosphit) and an optimal ...estimation inversion scheme, but goes further than our previous work by explicitly considering correlations between the two species. A global HDO and H2O a priori profile together with a covariance matrix were built from daily LMDz-iso model simulations of HDO and H2O profiles over the whole globe and a whole year. The retrieval parameters are described and characterized in terms of errors. We show that IASI is mostly sensitive to δD in the middle troposphere and allows retrieving δD for an integrated 3–6 km column with an error of 38‰ on an individual measurement basis. We examine the performance of the retrieval to capture the temporal (seasonal and short-term) and spatial variations of δD for one year of measurement at two dedicated sites (Darwin and Izaña) and a latitudinal band from −60° to 60° for a 15 day period in January. We report a generally good agreement between IASI and the model and indicate the capabilities of IASI to reproduce the large scale variations of δD (seasonal cycle and latitudinal gradient) with good accuracy. In particular, we show that there is no systematic significant bias in the retrieved δD values in comparison with the model, and that the retrieved variability is similar to the one in the model even though there are certain local differences. Moreover, the noticeable differences between IASI and the model are briefly examined and suggest modeling issues instead of retrieval effects. Finally, the results further reveal the unprecedented capabilities of IASI to capture short-term variations in δD, highlighting the added value of the sounder for monitoring hydrological processes.
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