•We derive global flood hazard maps at 30′′ resolution for several return periods•The mapping procedure is based on a hydrological and hydraulic modelling chain•Maps are evaluated using official and ...satellite-derived flood extent maps
Nowadays, the development of high-resolution flood hazard models have become feasible at continental and global scale, and their application in developing countries and data-scarce regions can be extremely helpful to increase preparedness of population and reduce catastrophic impacts.
The present work describes the development of a novel procedure for global flood hazard mapping, based on the most recent advances in large scale flood modelling. We derive a long-term dataset of daily river discharges from the hydrological simulations of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Streamflow data is downscaled on a high resolution river network and processed to provide the input for local flood inundation simulations, performed with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. All flood-prone areas identified along the river network are then merged to create continental flood hazard maps for different return periods at 30′′ resolution. We evaluate the performance of our methodology in several river basins across the globe by comparing simulated flood maps with both official hazard maps and a mosaic of flooded areas detected from satellite images. The evaluation procedure also includes comparisons with the results of other large scale flood models. We further investigate the sensitivity of the flood modelling framework to several parameters and modelling approaches and identify strengths, limitations and possible improvements of the methodology.
Studies of sessile droplets and fluid bridges of a ferroelectric nematic liquid crystal in externally applied electric fields are presented. It is found that above a threshold, the interface of the ...fluid with air undergoes a fingering instability or ramification, resembling to Rayleigh-type instability observed in charged droplets in electric fields or circular drop-type instabilities observed in ferromagnetic liquids in magnetic field. The frequency dependence of the threshold voltage was determined in various geometries. The nematic director and ferroelectric polarization direction was found to point along the tip of the fingers that appear to repel each other, indicating that the ferroelectric polarization is essentially parallel to the director. The results are interpreted in connection to the Rayleigh and circular drop-type instabilities.
Incorporating time into thermodynamics allows for addressing the tradeoff between efficiency and power. A qubit engine serves as a toy model in order to study this tradeoff from first principles, ...based on the quantum theory of open systems. We study the quantum origin of irreversibility, originating from heat transport, quantum friction, and thermalization in the presence of external driving. We construct various finite-time engine cycles that are based on the Otto and Carnot templates. Our analysis highlights the role of coherence and the quantum origin of entropy production.
Ferroelectric nematic liquid crystals are fluids exhibiting spontaneous electric polarization, which is coupled to their long range orientational order. Due to their inherent property of making bound ...and surface charges, the free surface of ferroelectric nematics becomes unstable in electric fields. Here we show that ferroelectric liquid bridges between two electrode plates undergo distinct interfacial instabilities. In a specific range of frequency and voltage, the ferroelectric fluid bridges move as active interacting particles resembling living organisms like swarming insects, microbes or microrobots. The motion is accompanied by sound emission, as a consequence of piezoelectricity and electrostriction. Statistical analysis of the active particles reveals that the movement can be controlled by the applied voltage, which implies the possible application of the system in new types of microfluidic devices.Ferroelectric nematic liquids with apparently high dielectric constant exhibit remarkable electric field induced phenomena. The authors report creating small fluid ferroelectric units that function as active particles under an electric field.
Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious ...target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state‐of‐the‐art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1‐km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high‐resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.
Key Points
Global flood risk assessment at different warming levels based on ensemble climate projections
At 4°C warming 70% of the world population and GDP will face increase in flood impact over 500%
Projected changes in flood risk are largest in Asia, America, and Europe
Plain Language Summary
At the Paris Agreement, 195 countries set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre‐industrial levels. This appears in contrast with the latest trends recording warming in the range of 1°C and a relentless increase towards higher levels. Scientists are urged to quantify the socio‐economic impacts of natural hazards under different degrees of global warming. This research presents the first global assessment of economic damage and population affected by river floods under different global warming scenarios. We used an ensemble of high‐resolution climate projections to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under future scenarios corresponding to 1.5, 2, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear relation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk in most world regions. At 4°C warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global GDP will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Projected increase in flood risk is largest in Asia, America and Europe. In contrast, projected changes have low confidence in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.
Mucosal surfaces are a main entry point for pathogens and the principal sites of defense against infection. Both bacteria and phage are associated with this mucus. Here we show that phageto-bacteria ...ratios were increased, relative to the adjacent environment on all mucosal surfaces sampled, ranging from cnidarians to humans. In vitro studies of tissue culture cells with and without surface mucus demonstrated that this increase in phage abundance is mucus dependent and protects the underlying epithelium from bacterial infection. Enrichment of phage in mucus occurs via binding interactions between mucin glycoproteins and Ig-like protein domains exposed on phage capsids. In particular, phage Ig-like domains bind variable glycan residues that coat the mucin glycoprotein component of mucus. Metagenomic analysis found these Ig-like proteins present in the phages sampled from many environments, particularly from locations adjacent to mucosal surfaces. Based on these observations, we present the bacteriophage adherence to mucus model that provides a ubiquitous, but non-host-derived, immunity applicable to mucosal surfaces. The model suggests that metazoan mucosal surfaces and phage coevolve to maintain phage adherence. This benefits the metazoan host by limiting mucosal bacteria, and benefits the phage through more frequent interactions with bacterial hosts. The relationships shown here suggest a symbiotic relationship between phage and metazoan hosts that provides a previously unrecognized antimicrobial defense that actively protects mucosal surfaces.
•The effects of lakes and reservoirs on global daily streamflow are evaluated.•Reservoirs affect model performance substantially in the global domain.•Lakes’ effects on model performance are limited ...to few catchments.•Lakes and reservoirs reduce return levels discharge thresholds globally.•Reservoir parameters contribute to uncertainty of model performance metrics.
Lakes and reservoirs affect the timing and magnitude of streamflow, and are therefore essential hydrological model components, especially in the context of global flood forecasting. However, the parameterization of lake and reservoir routines on a global scale is subject to considerable uncertainty due to lack of information on lake hydrographic characteristics and reservoir operating rules. In this study we estimated the effect of lakes and reservoirs on global daily streamflow simulations of a spatially-distributed LISFLOOD hydrological model. We applied state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for selected catchments to examine the effect of uncertain lake and reservoir parameterization on model performance. Streamflow observations from 390 catchments around the globe and multiple performance measures were used to assess model performance.
Results indicate a considerable geographical variability in the lake and reservoir effects on the streamflow simulation. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) metrics improved for 65% and 38% of catchments respectively, with median skill score values of 0.16 and 0.2 while scores deteriorated for 28% and 52% of the catchments, with median values −0.09 and −0.16, respectively. The effect of reservoirs on extreme high flows was substantial and widespread in the global domain, while the effect of lakes was spatially limited to a few catchments. As indicated by global sensitivity analysis, parameter uncertainty substantially affected uncertainty of model performance. Reservoir parameters often contributed to this uncertainty, although the effect varied widely among catchments. The effect of reservoir parameters on model performance diminished with distance downstream of reservoirs in favor of other parameters, notably groundwater-related parameters and channel Manning’s roughness coefficient. This study underscores the importance of accounting for lakes and, especially, reservoirs and using appropriate parameterization in large-scale hydrological simulations.
Coastal flooding related to marine extreme events has severe socioeconomic impacts, and even though the latter are projected to increase under the changing climate, there is a clear deficit of ...information and predictive capacity related to coastal flood mapping. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining (i) the contribution of waves to the total water level; (ii) improved inundation modeling; and (iii) an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded, whenever new and more accurate data become available. Four inundation approaches of gradually increasing complexity and computational costs were evaluated in terms of their applicability to large-scale coastal flooding mapping: static inundation (SM); a semi-dynamic method, considering the water volume discharge over the dykes (VD); the flood intensity index approach (Iw); and the model LISFLOOD-FP (LFP). A validation test performed against observed flood extents during the Xynthia storm event showed that SM and VD can lead to an overestimation of flood extents by 232 and 209 %, while Iw and LFP showed satisfactory predictive skill. Application at pan-European scale for the present-day 100-year event confirmed that static approaches can overestimate flood extents by 56 % compared to LFP; however, Iw can deliver results of reasonable accuracy in cases when reduced computational costs are a priority. Moreover, omitting the wave contribution in the extreme total water level (TWL) can result in a ∼ 60 % underestimation of the flooded area. The present findings have implications for impact assessment studies, since combination of the estimated inundation maps with population exposure maps revealed differences in the estimated number of people affected within the 20–70 % range.
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