Marine Taxa Track Local Climate Velocities Pinsky, Malin L.; Worm, Boris; Fogarty, Michael J. ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
09/2013, Letnik:
341, Številka:
6151
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Organisms are expected to adapt or move in response to climate change, but observed distribution shifts span a wide range of directions and rates. Explanations often emphasize biological distinctions ...among species, but general mechanisms have been elusive. We tested an alternative hypothesis: that differences in climate velocity—the rate and direction that climate shifts across the landscape—can explain observed species shifts. We compiled a database of coastal surveys around North America from 1968 to 2011, sampling 128 million individuals across 360 marine taxa. Climate velocity explained the magnitude and direction of shifts in latitude and depth much more effectively than did species characteristics. Our results demonstrate that marine species shift at different rates and directions because they closely track the complex mosaic of local climate velocities.
The authors assess the uptake, transport, and storage of oceanic anthropogenic carbon and heat over the period 1861–2005 in a new set of coupled carbon–climate Earth system models conducted for the ...fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), with a particular focus on the Southern Ocean. Simulations show that the Southern Ocean south of 30°S, occupying 30% of global surface ocean area, accounts for 43% ± 3% (42 ± 5 Pg C) of anthropogenic CO₂ and 75% ± 22% (23 ± 9 × 1022J) of heat uptake by the ocean over the historical period. Northward transport out of the Southern Ocean is vigorous, reducing the storage to 33 ± 6 Pg anthropogenic carbon and 12 ± 7 × 1022J heat in the region. The CMIP5 models, as a class, tend to underestimate the observation-based global anthropogenic carbon storage but simulate trends in global ocean heat storage over the last 50 years within uncertainties of observation-based estimates. CMIP5 models suggest global and Southern Ocean CO₂ uptake have been largely unaffected by recent climate variability and change. Anthropogenic carbon and heat storage show a common broad-scale pattern of change, but ocean heat storage is more structured than ocean carbon storage. The results highlight the significance of the Southern Ocean for the global climate and as the region where models differ the most in representation of anthropogenic CO₂ and, in particular, heat uptake.
Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how ...rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.
Abstract
Over the last ten years, satellite and geographically constrained in situ observations largely focused on the northern hemisphere have suggested that annual phytoplankton biomass cycles ...cannot be fully understood from environmental properties controlling phytoplankton division rates (e.g., nutrients and light), as they omit the role of ecological and environmental loss processes (e.g., grazing, viruses, sinking). Here, we use multi-year observations from a very large array of robotic drifting floats in the Southern Ocean to determine key factors governing phytoplankton biomass dynamics over the annual cycle. Our analysis reveals seasonal phytoplankton accumulation (‘blooming’) events occurring during periods of declining modeled division rates, an observation that highlights the importance of loss processes in dictating the evolution of the seasonal cycle in biomass. In the open Southern Ocean, the spring bloom magnitude is found to be greatest in areas with high dissolved iron concentrations, consistent with iron being a well-established primary limiting nutrient in this region. Under ice observations show that biomass starts increasing in early winter, well before sea ice begins to retreat. The average theoretical sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to potential changes in seasonal nutrient and light availability suggests that a 10% change in phytoplankton division rate may be associated with a 50% reduction in mean bloom magnitude and annual primary productivity, assuming simple changes in the seasonal magnitude of phytoplankton division rates. Overall, our results highlight the importance of quantifying and accounting for both division and loss processes when modeling future changes in phytoplankton biomass cycles.
Although the Southern Ocean is thought to account for a significant portion of the contemporary oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2), flux estimates in this region are based on sparse observations ...that are strongly biased toward summer. Here we present new estimates of Southern Ocean air‐sea CO2 fluxes calculated with measurements from biogeochemical profiling floats deployed by the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project during 2014–2017. Compared to ship‐based CO2 flux estimates, the float‐based fluxes find significantly stronger outgassing in the zone around Antarctica where carbon‐rich deep waters upwell to the surface ocean. Although interannual variability contributes, this difference principally stems from the lack of autumn and winter ship‐based observations in this high‐latitude region. These results suggest that our current understanding of the distribution of oceanic CO2 sources and sinks may need revision and underscore the need for sustained year‐round biogeochemical observations in the Southern Ocean.
Plain Language Summary
The Southern Ocean absorbs a great deal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and helps to shape the climate of Earth. However, we do not have many observations from this part of the world, especially in winter, because it is remote and inhospitable. Here we present new observations from robotic drifting buoys that take measurements of temperature, salinity, and other water properties year‐round. We use these data to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide being absorbed by the Southern Ocean. In the open water region close to Antarctica, the new estimates are remarkably different from the previous estimates, which were based on data collected from ships. We discuss some possible reasons that the float‐based estimate is different and how this changes our understanding of how the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide.
Key Points
Measurements from biogeochemical profiling floats were used to estimate air‐sea fluxes of carbon dioxide
Significant annual net outgassing of carbon dioxide was observed in the high‐latitude Antarctic‐Southern Zone
In this region, a large difference with previous estimates was found in winter when ship‐based sampling is sparse
Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning ...matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature‐linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high‐emissions, climate‐warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature‐linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. “Extreme events,” defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10‐fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.
We modeled the impacts of climate change on the timing of phytoplankton blooms and spawning of two classes of fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed features and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to environmental change. Phytoplankton blooms occurred 16 days earlier compared to baseline conditions. The phenology of geographic spawners changed twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing them to often spawn before the bloom. Trophic mismatches were less widespread for environmental spawners, indicating this behavioral mode increased resiliency to phenological mismatches. Mismatches experienced by geographic spawners could lead to declines in survival and recruitment.
Change-point analysis as a tool to detect abrupt climate variations Beaulieu, Claudie; Chen, Jie; Sarmiento, Jorge L.
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences,
03/2012, Letnik:
370, Številka:
1962
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Recently, there have been an increasing number of studies using change-point methods to detect artificial or natural discontinuities and regime shifts in climate. However, a major drawback with most ...of the currently used change-point methods is the lack of flexibility (able to detect one specific type of shift under the assumption that the residuals are independent). As temporal variations in climate are complex, it may be difficult to identify change points with very simple models. Moreover, climate time series are known to exhibit autocorrelation, which corresponds to a model misspecification if not taken into account and can lead to the detection of non-existent shifts. In this study, we extend a method known as the informational approach for change-point detection to take into account the presence of autocorrelation in the model. The usefulness and flexibility of this approach are demonstrated through applications. Furthermore, it is highly desirable to develop techniques that can detect shifts soon after they occur for climate monitoring. To address this, we also carried out a simulation study in order to investigate the number of years after which an abrupt shift is detectable. We use two decision rules in order to decide whether a shift is detected or not, which represents a trade-off between increasing our chances of detecting a shift and reducing the risk of detecting a shift while in reality there is none. We show that, as of now, we have good chances to detect an abrupt shift with a magnitude that is larger than that of the standard deviation in the series of observations. For shifts with a very large magnitude (three times the standard deviation), our simulation study shows that after only 4 years the probabilities of shift detection reach nearly 100 per cent. This reveals that the approach has potential for climate monitoring.
Previous projection of climate change impacts on global food supply focuses solely on production from terrestrial biomes, ignoring the large contribution of animal protein from marine capture ...fisheries. Here, we project changes in global catch potential for 1066 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates from 2005 to 2055 under climate change scenarios. We show that climate change may lead to large-scale redistribution of global catch potential, with an average of 30-70% increase in high-latitude regions and a drop of up to 40% in the tropics. Moreover, maximum catch potential declines considerably in the southward margins of semienclosed seas while it increases in poleward tips of continental shelf margins. Such changes are most apparent in the Pacific Ocean. Among the 20 most important fishing Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) regions in terms of their total landings, EEZ regions with the highest increase in catch potential by 2055 include Norway, Greenland, the United States (Alaska) and Russia (Asia). On the contrary, EEZ regions with the biggest loss in maximum catch potential include Indonesia, the United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii), Chile and China. Many highly impacted regions, particularly those in the tropics, are socioeconomically vulnerable to these changes. Thus, our results indicate the need to develop adaptation policy that could minimize climate change impacts through fisheries. The study also provides information that may be useful to evaluate fisheries management options under climate change.
We present a new synthesis of the oceanic cycles of organic carbon, silicon, and calcium carbonate. Our calculations are based on a series of algorithms starting with satellite‐based primary ...production and continuing with conversion of primary production to sinking particle flux, penetration of particle flux to the deep sea, and accumulation in sediments. Regional and global budgets from this synthesis highlight the potential importance of shelves and near‐shelf regions for carbon burial. While a high degree of uncertainty remains, this analysis suggests that shelves, less than 50 m water depths accounting for 2% of the total ocean area, may account for 48% of the global flux of organic carbon to the seafloor. Our estimates of organic carbon and nitrogen flux are in generally good agreement with previous work while our estimates for CaCO3 and SiO2 fluxes are lower than recent work. Interannual variability in particle export fluxes is found to be relatively small compared to intra‐annual variability over large domains with the single exception of the dominating role of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in the central tropical Pacific. Comparison with available sediment‐based syntheses of benthic remineralization and burial support the recent theory of mineral protection of organic carbon flux through the deep ocean, pointing to lithogenic material as an important carrier phase of organic carbon to the deep seafloor. This work suggests that models which exclude the role of lithogenic material would underestimate the penetration of POC to the deep seafloor by approximately 16–51% globally, and by a much larger fraction in areas with low productivity. Interestingly, atmospheric dust can only account for 31% of the total lithogenic flux and 42% of the lithogenically associated POC flux, implying that a majority of this material is riverine or directly erosional in origin.
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