Global modeling of nature's contributions to people Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sharp, Richard P; Weil, Charlotte ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
10/2019, Letnik:
366, Številka:
6462
Journal Article
Recenzirano
The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several ...contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.
Abstract
While there is significant enthusiasm in the medical community about the use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in healthcare, few research studies have sought to assess patient ...perspectives on these technologies. We conducted 15 focus groups examining patient views of diverse applications of AI in healthcare. Our results indicate that patients have multiple concerns, including concerns related to the safety of AI, threats to patient choice, potential increases in healthcare costs, data-source bias, and data security. We also found that patient acceptance of AI is contingent on mitigating these possible harms. Our results highlight an array of patient concerns that may limit enthusiasm for applications of AI in healthcare. Proactively addressing these concerns is critical for the flourishing of ethical innovation and ensuring the long-term success of AI applications in healthcare.
•Ecosystem service models are widely used but rarely evaluated with empirical data.•We evaluated the InVEST nutrient retention model across multiple UK catchments.•We investigated model sensitivity ...and performance with alternative input data.•The model was highly sensitive to variation in some input parameters.•The model can give good estimates of relative nutrient export between catchments.
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A wide variety of tools aim to support decision making by modelling, mapping and quantifying ecosystem services. If decisions are to be properly informed, the accuracy and potential limitations of these tools must be well understood. However, dedicated studies evaluating ecosystem service models against empirical data are rare, especially over large areas. In this paper, we report on the national-scale assessment of a new ecosystem service model for nutrient delivery and retention, the InVEST Nutrient Delivery Ratio model. For 36 river catchments across the UK, we modelled total catchment export of phosphorus (P) and/or nitrogen (N) and compared model outputs to measurements derived from empirical water chemistry data.
The model performed well in terms of relative magnitude of nutrient export among catchments (best Spearman's rank correlation for N and P, respectively: 0.81 and 0.88). However, there was wide variation among catchments in the accuracy of the model, and absolute values of nutrient exports frequently showed high percentage differences between modelled and empirically-derived exports (best median absolute percentage difference for N and P, respectively: ±64%, ±44%). The model also showed a high degree of sensitivity to nutrient loads and hydrologic routing input parameters and these sensitivities varied among catchments.
These results suggest that the InVEST model can provide valuable information on nutrient fluxes to decision makers, especially in terms of relative differences among catchments. However, caution is needed if using the absolute modelled values for decision-making. Our study also suggests particular attention should be paid to researching input nutrient loadings and retentions, and the selection of appropriate input data resolutions and threshold flow accumulation values. Our results also highlight how availability of empirical data can improve model calibration and performance assessment and reinforce the need to include such data in ecosystem service modelling studies.
Direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing emerged in the early 2000s as a means of allowing consumers to access information on their genetics without the involvement of a physician. Although early ...models of DTC were popular with consumers, they were controversial in medical and regulatory circles. In this article, we trace the history of DTC genetic testing, discuss its regulatory implications, and describe the emergence of a new hybrid model we call DTC 2.0.
The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem ...services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two- to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation.
The article discusses the ethical issues and programming challenges associated with genomic newborn screening (NBS) and how they can be overcome. The need for better coordination between screening ...programs, genome scientists, primary care physicians and parents to effectively use data from such screening is highlighted.
Torrefaction is a developing thermal process that has mainly been used to convert lignocellulosic feedstocks, both cultured and wasted, into a “charred” product that can be used as a fuel for power ...plants, combustion units, and gasifiers. Beneficial characteristics of torrefied products are increased energy density, removal of free water from the feedstock so that water is not being transported to the use facility, grindability indices similar to coal, and a more bio-stable product better suited for outdoor piled storage over the raw input material. A thorough review of the literature involving the torrefaction of fibrous agricultural wastes, food wastes, and non-lignocellulosic wastes (bacteria, algae, yeast, etc.) is presented in this paper. In general, average torrefaction operating conditions yielded greatly improved biofuels over the raw input feedstocks.
•Torrefaction is a feedstock flexible process can produce high-quality biocoal.•Process flexibility has been controlled mainly by temperature and reaction time.•Numerous studies support using torrefaction for producing a good bio-based fuel.•More scale-up work is needed to increase commercialization of the technology.
With the use of publicly available software, reconstructed facial images from deidentified cranial MRI scans were matched to photographs of individual study participants 83% of the time as the first ...choice from a panel of photographs. This raises the possibility of identifying anonymous research participants.
In 2009, the Evaluation of Genomic Applications in Practice and Prevention recommended that all colorectal cancers (CRCs) be screened for Lynch syndrome (LS) through microsatellite instability (MSI) ...or immunohistochemistry (IHC). No studies report how this process is implemented on a health system-wide basis.
Since 2004, Cleveland Clinic has screened CRC specimens with MSI/IHC. Between January 2004 and July 2007, MSI/IHC results went only to the colorectal surgeon (approach 1). Between August 2007 and June 2008, colorectal surgeons and a genetic counselor received the MSI/IHC results, and the counselor e-mailed the colorectal surgeon regarding appropriate patients for genetic counseling (GC) referral (approach 2). After July 2008, the colorectal surgeon and counselor received MSI/IHC results, but the counselor contacted the patient to facilitate referral (approach 3). In approaches 2 and 3, patients were presumed to have sporadic CRC if the tumor lacked MLH1 expression and was also BRAF mutated or if the patient was diagnosed at age greater than 72 years and had no cancer family history.
Abnormal MSI/IHC results occurred in 178 (16%) of 1,108 patients. In approach 1, 21 (55%) of 38 patients with abnormal MSI/IHC were referred for GC, 12 (32%) of 38 underwent GC, and 10 (26%) of 38 underwent genetic testing (GT). In approach 2, nine (82%) of 11 patients were referred for GC, seven (64%) of 11 underwent GC, and five (45%) of 11 underwent GT. In approach 3, 56 (100%) of 56 patients were referred for GC, 40 (71%) of 56 underwent GC, and 37 (66%) of 56 underwent GT. Time from referral to GC was 10-fold quicker in approach 3 than approach 1.
Implementation of universal MSI/IHC with GC/GT, along with effective multidisciplinary communication and plans of responsibility for patient contact, resulted in increased identification of patients with LS.
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