Levels of proinflammatory cytokines associate with risk for developing type 2 diabetes but whether chronic inflammation contributes to the development of diabetic complications, such as ESRD, is ...unknown. In the 1990s, we recruited 410 patients with type 2 diabetes for studies of diabetic nephropathy and recorded their characteristics at enrollment. During 12 years of follow-up, 59 patients developed ESRD (17 per 1000 patient-years) and 84 patients died without ESRD (24 per 1000 patient-years). Plasma markers of systemic inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and the TNF pathway were measured in the study entry samples. Of the examined markers, only TNF receptors 1 and 2 (TNFR1 and TNFR2) associated with risk for ESRD. These two markers were highly correlated, but ESRD associated more strongly with TNFR1. The cumulative incidence of ESRD for patients in the highest TNFR1 quartile was 54% after 12 years but only 3% for the other quartiles (P<0.001). In Cox proportional hazard analyses, TNFR1 predicted risk for ESRD even after adjustment for clinical covariates such as urinary albumin excretion. Plasma concentration of TNFR1 outperformed all tested clinical variables with regard to predicting ESRD. Concentrations of TNFRs moderately associated with death unrelated to ESRD. In conclusion, elevated concentrations of circulating TNFRs in patients with type 2 diabetes at baseline are very strong predictors of the subsequent progression to ESRD in subjects with and without proteinuria.
To identify determinants of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes a range of markers was studied in 1032 patients enrolled into the 2nd Joslin Kidney Study. eGFR slopes estimated from ...serial measurements of serum creatinine during 5-12 years of follow-up were used to define early renal decline. At enrollment, all patients had normal eGFR, 58% had normoalbuminuria and 42% had albuminuria. Early renal decline developed in 6% and in 18% patients, respectively. As determinants, we examined baseline values of clinical characteristics, circulating markers: TNFR1, KIM-1, and FGF23, and urinary markers: albumin, KIM-1, NGAL, MCP-1, EGF (all normalized to urinary creatinine) and the ratio of EGF to MCP-1. In univariate analysis, all plasma and urinary markers were significantly associated with risk of early renal decline. When analyzed together, systolic blood pressure, TNFR1, KIM-1, the albumin to creatinine ratio, and the EGF/MCP-1 ratio remained significant with the latter having the strongest effect. Integration of these markers into a multi-marker prognostic test resulted in a significant improvement of discriminatory performance of risk prediction of early renal decline, compared with the albumin to creatinine ratio and systolic blood pressure alone. However, the positive predictive value was only 50% in albuminuric patients. Thus, markers in plasma and urine indicate that the early progressive renal decline in Type 2 diabetes has multiple determinants with strong evidence for involvement of tubular damage. However, new, more informative markers are needed to develop a better prognostic test for such decline that can be used in a clinical setting.
We investigated whether circulating TGF-β1-regulated miRNAs detectable in plasma are associated with the risk of rapid progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a cohort of proteinuric ...patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and normal eGFR. Plasma specimens obtained at entry to the study were examined in two prospective subgroups that were followed for 7-20 years (rapid progressors and nonprogressors), as well as a reference panel of normoalbuminuric T1D patients. Of the five miRNAs examined in this study, let-7c-5p and miR-29a-3p were significantly associated with protection against rapid progression and let-7b-5p and miR-21-5p were significantly associated with the increased risk of ESRD. In logistic analysis, controlling for HbA1c and other covariates, let-7c-5p and miR-29a-3p were associated with more than a 50% reduction in the risk of rapid progression (P ≤ 0.001), while let-7b-5p and miR-21-5p were associated with a >2.5-fold increase in the risk of ESRD (P ≤ 0.005). This study is the first prospective study to demonstrate that circulating TGF-β1-regulated miRNAs are deregulated early in T1D patients who are at risk for rapid progression to ESRD.
Elevated plasma concentrations of TNF receptors 1 and 2 (TNFR1 and TNFR2) predict development of ESRD in patients with type 2 diabetes without proteinuria, suggesting these markers may contribute to ...the pathogenesis of renal decline. We investigated whether circulating markers of the TNF pathway determine GFR loss among patients with type 1 diabetes. We followed two cohorts comprising 628 patients with type 1 diabetes, normal renal function, and no proteinuria. Over 12 years, 69 patients developed estimated GFR less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (16 per 1000 person-years). Concentrations of TNFR1 and TNFR2 were strongly associated with risk for early renal decline. Renal decline was associated only modestly with total TNFα concentration and appeared unrelated to free TNFα. The cumulative incidence of estimated GFR less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) for patients in the highest TNFR2 quartile was 60% after 12 years compared with 5%-19% in the remaining quartiles. In Cox proportional hazards analysis, patients with TNFR2 values in the highest quartile were threefold more likely to experience renal decline than patients in the other quartiles (hazard ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-5.5). The risk associated with high TNFR1 values was slightly less than that associated with high TNFR2 values. TNFR levels were unrelated to baseline free TNFα level and remained stable over long periods within an individual. In conclusion, early GFR loss in patients with type 1 diabetes without proteinuria is strongly associated with circulating TNF receptor levels but not TNFα levels (free or total).
The patterns of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with type 1 diabetes has not been conclusively described. Decline could be linearly ...progressive to ESRD but with a variable rate. Conversely, decline may be linear but interrupted by periods of plateaus or improvements.
This observational study included 364 patients with type 1 diabetes attending the Joslin Clinic who developed ESRD between 1991 and 2013. We retrieved serum creatinine measurements from clinic visits or research examinations up to 24 years (median 6.7 years) preceding the onset of ESRD. Using serial measurements of serum creatinine to estimate renal function (eGFR), we used regression-based spline methods and a data smoothing approach to characterize individual trajectories of eGFR over time for the 257 patients with five or more data points.
The rate of eGFR decline per year ranged widely, from -72 to -2 mL/min/1.73 m
(median -8.5). The trajectories, as characterized with linear regression-based spline models, were linear or nearly so for 87% of patients, accelerating for 6%, and decelerating for 7%. Smoothed trajectories evaluated by a Bayesian approach did not significantly depart from a linear fit in 76%.
The decline of eGFR in type 1 diabetes is predominantly linear. Deviations from linearity are small, with little effect on the expected time of ESRD. A single disease process most likely underlies renal decline from its initiation and continues with the same intensity to ESRD. Linearity of renal decline suggests using slope reduction as the measure of effectiveness of interventions to postpone ESRD.
We investigated plasma microRNA (miRNA) profiles associated with variation of hyperglycemia, measured as hemoglobin A
(HbA
), in two panels of patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Using the HTG ...Molecular Diagnostics EdgeSeq platform, 2,083 miRNAs were measured in plasma from 71 patients included in a screening panel. Quantitative real-time PCR was used to measure the candidate miRNAs in plasma from 95 patients included in an independent replication panel. We found 10 miRNAs replicated in both panels and 4 with high statistical significance. The strongest positive correlations with HbA
were found with miR-125b-5p (
= 0.40,
= 6.0 × 10
) and miR-365a-3p (
= 0.35,
= 5.9 × 10
). The strongest negative correlations were found with miR-5190 (
= -0.30,
= 0.003) and miR-770-5p (
= -0.27,
= 0.008). Pathway analysis revealed that 50 Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathways were significantly enriched by genes targeted by these four miRNAs. The axon guidance signaling pathway was enriched (
< 1 × 10
) by genes targeted by all four miRNAs. In addition, three other pathways (Rap1 signaling, focal adhesion, and neurotrophin signaling) were also significantly enriched but with genes targeted by only by three of the identified miRNAs. In conclusion, our study identified four circulating miRNAs that were influenced by variation in hyperglycemia. Dysregulation of these miRNAs, which are associated with hyperglycemia in patients with T1D, may contribute to the development of diabetes complications. However, there are multitudes of possible mechanisms/pathways through which dysregulation of these miRNAs may impact risk of diabetes complications.
Recent studies demonstrated that circulating fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-23 was associated with risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) and mortality. This study aims to examine whether the ...predictive effect of FGF-23 is independent from circulating levels of tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1), a strong predictor of ESRD in Type 2 diabetes (T2D).
We studied 380 patients with T2D who were followed for 8-12 years and were used previously to examine the effect of TNFR1. Baseline plasma FGF-23 was measured by immunoassay.
During follow-up, 48 patients (13%) developed ESRD and 83 patients (22%) died without ESRD. In a univariate analysis, baseline circulating levels of FGF-23 and TNFR1 were significantly higher in subjects who subsequently developed ESRD or died without ESRD than in those who remained alive. In a Cox proportional hazard model, baseline concentration of FGF-23 was associated with increased risk of ESRD, however its effect was no longer significant after controlling for TNFR1 and other clinical characteristics (HR 1.3, p = 0.15). The strong effect of circulating level of TNFR1 on risk of ESRD was not changed by including circulating levels of FGF-23 (HR 8.7, p<0.001). In the Cox multivariate model, circulating levels of FGF-23 remained a significant independent predictor of all-cause mortality unrelated to ESRD (HR 1.5, p<0.001).
We demonstrated that the effect of circulating levels of FGF-23 on the risk of ESRD is accounted for by circulating levels of TNFR1. We confirmed that circulating levels of FGF-23 have an independent effect on all-cause mortality in T2D.
Design of Phase III trials for diabetic nephropathy currently requires patients at a high risk of progression defined as within three years of a hard end point (end-stage renal disease, 40% loss of ...estimated glomerular filtration rate, or death). To improve the design of these trials, we used natural history data from the Joslin Kidney Studies of chronic kidney disease in patients with diabetes to develop an improved criterion to identify such patients. This included a training cohort of 279 patients with type 1 diabetes and 134 end points within three years, and a validation cohort of 221 patients with type 2 diabetes and 88 end points. Previous trials selected patients using clinical criteria for baseline urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Application of these criteria to our cohort data yielded sensitivities (detection of patients at risk) of 70-80% and prognostic values of only 52-63%. We applied classification and regression trees analysis to select from among all clinical characteristics and markers the optimal prognostic criterion that divided patients with type 1 diabetes according to risk. The optimal criterion was a serum tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 level over 4.3 ng/ml alone or 2.9-4.3 ng/ml with an albumin-to-creatinine ratio over 1900 mg/g. Remarkably, this criterion produced similar results in both type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients. Overall, sensitivity and prognostic value were high (72% and 81%, respectively). Thus, application of this criterion to enrollment in future clinical trials could reduce the sample size required to achieve adequate statistical power for detection of treatment benefits.
The risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) remains high in patients with type 1 diabetes and proteinuria; however, little is known about the rate of decline in their renal function. To help determine ...this, we enrolled patients with type 1 diabetes and proteinuria whose estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was normal (equal to or above 60ml/min per 1.73m2). Using a minimum of five serial measurements of serum creatinine for 161 patients, we determined individual trajectories of eGFR change and the occurrence of ESRD during 5–18 years of follow-up. The rates were linear for 110 patients, for 24 the nonlinear rate was mild enough to satisfy a linear model, and the rates were clearly nonlinear for only 27 patients. Overall, in more than one-third of patients, the eGFR decline was less than 3.5ml/min per 1.73m2 per year and the lifetime risk of ESRD could be considered negligible. In the remainder of patients, eGFR declined with widely different slopes and ESRD developed within 2 to 18 years. Based on up to 5 years observation, when renal function was within the normal range, the estimates of early eGFR slope predicted the risk of ESRD during subsequent follow-up better than the baseline clinical characteristics of glycated hemoglobin, blood pressure, or the albumin to creatinine ratio. Thus, the early slope of eGFR decline in patients with type 1 diabetes and proteinuria can be used to predict the risk of ESRD.
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