I review the literature on the economic impacts of climate change, an externality that is unprecedentedly large, complex, and uncertain. Only 14 estimates of the total damage cost of climate change ...have been published, a research effort that is in sharp contrast to the urgency of the public debate and the proposed expenditure on greenhouse gas emission reduction. These estimates show that climate change initially improves economic welfare. However, these benefits are sunk. Impacts would be predominantly negative later in the century. Global average impacts would be comparable to the welfare loss of a few percent of income, but substantially higher in poor countries. Still, the impact of climate change over a century is comparable to economic growth over a few years. There are over 200 estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions. The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon is large and right-skewed. For a standard discount rate, the expected value is $50/tC, which is much lower than the price of carbon in the European Union but much higher than the price of carbon elsewhere. Current estimates of the damage costs of climate change are incomplete, with positive and negative biases. Most important among the missing impacts are the indirect effects of climate change on economic development; large-scale biodiversity loss; low-probability, high-impact scenarios; the impact of climate change on violent conflict; and the impacts of climate change beyond 2100. From a welfare perspective, the impact of climate change is problematic because population is endogenous, and because policy analyses should separate impatience, risk aversion, and inequity aversion between and within countries.
This paper uses imputed national climate change impact functions to estimate national social costs of carbon, which are largest in poor countries with large populations. The national social costs of ...carbon of faster growing economies are less sensitive to the pure rate of time preference and more sensitive to the rate of risk aversion. The pattern of national social costs of carbon is not sensitive to the assumed impact function, climate sensitivity, and scenario, although the global social cost of carbon is. Income convergence raises the national social costs of carbon of poorer countries, and lowers them for richer countries. Both global and national social costs of carbon are most sensitive to the income elasticity of climate change impacts, a parameter about which we know little.
•Estimates of the national social cost of carbon•Large, poor countries show the highest estimates.•Income elasticity of impact is key parameter.
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population ...data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2—4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25—123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3—9.3% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$ 12—71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.
UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from ...coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.
Summary
Mesenchymal stromal cell (MSC) infusions have been reported to be effective in patients with steroid‐refractory, acute graft‐versus‐host disease (aGvHD) but comprehensive data on paediatric ...patients are limited. We retrospectively analysed a cohort of 37 children (aged 3 months‐17 years) treated with MSCs for steroid‐refractory grade III–IV aGvHD. All patients but three received multiple MSC infusions. Complete response (CR) was observed in 24 children (65%), while 13 children had either partial (n = 8) or no response (n = 5). Cumulative incidence of transplantation‐related mortality (TRM) in patients who did or did not achieve CR was 17% and 69%, respectively (P = 0·001). After a median follow‐up of 2·9 years, overall survival (OS) was 37%; it was 65% vs. 0% in patients who did or did not achieve CR, respectively (P = 0·001). The median time from starting steroids for GvHD treatment to first MSC infusion was 13 d (range 5–85). Children treated between 5 and 12 d after steroid initiation showed a trend for better OS (56%) and lower TRM (17%) as compared with patients receiving MSCs 13–85 d after steroids (25% and 53%, respectively; P = 0·22 and 0·06, respectively). Multiple MSC infusions are safe and effective for children with steroid‐refractory aGvHD, especially when employed early in the disease course.
Hydropedology is an interdisciplinary field that studies the interactions between soil and water, recognizing that soils influence hydrological processes through their hydraulic properties, and serve ...as indicators of hydrological behaviour through their morphological properties that are shaped by water regimes. Given the practical implications of hydropedology and its integration into South Africa's latest soil classification system, an updated categorization of soil forms and 1 657 (1 629 + 28) families was necessary, organizing them into three overarching response groups based on their predominant hydrological responses: recharge, interflow, and responsive. Within these groups, recharge soils are further classified into deep, shallow, and slow subgroups, interflow soils encompass soil/bedrock, shallow, and slow categories, while responsive soils are subdivided into responsive shallow and responsive wet. This paper aims to enhance the reader's comprehension of hydrological responses and simplify the intricacies integrated into South Africa's official soil classification system.
IntroductionIn pancreatic cancer, preoperative biliary drainage (PBD) increases complications compared with surgery without PBD, demonstrated by a recent randomised controlled trial (RCT). This ...outcome might be related to the plastic endoprosthesis used. Metal stents may reduce the PBD-related complications risk.MethodsA prospective multicentre cohort study was performed including patients with obstructive jaundice due to pancreatic cancer, scheduled to undergo PBD before surgery. This cohort was added to the earlier RCT (ISRCTN31939699). The RCT protocol was adhered to, except PBD was performed with a fully covered self-expandable metal stent (FCSEMS). This FCSEMS cohort was compared with the RCT’s plastic stent cohort. PBD-related complications were the primary outcome. Three-group comparison of overall complications including early surgery patients was performed.Results53 patients underwent PBD with FCSEMS compared with 102 patients treated with plastic stents. Patients’ characteristics did not differ. PBD-related complication rates were 24% in the FCSEMS group vs 46% in the plastic stent group (relative risk of plastic stent use 1.9, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p=0.011). Stent-related complications (occlusion and exchange) were 6% vs 31%. Surgical complications did not differ, 40% vs 47%. Overall complication rates for the FCSEMS, plastic stent and early surgery groups were 51% vs 74% vs 39%.ConclusionsFor PBD in pancreatic cancer, FCSEMS yield a better outcome compared with plastic stents. Although early surgery without PBD remains the treatment of choice, FCSEMS should be preferred over plastic stents whenever PBD is indicated.Trial registration number:Dutch Trial Registry (NTR3142).
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