A field trial was conducted to investigate the impact of oral vaccination of free-living badgers against natural-transmitted Mycobacterium bovis infection. For a period of three years badgers were ...captured over seven sweeps in three zones and assigned for oral vaccination with a lipid-encapsulated BCG vaccine (Liporale-BCG) or with placebo. Badgers enrolled in Zone A were administered placebo while all badgers enrolled in Zone C were vaccinated with BCG. Badgers enrolled in the middle area, Zone B, were randomly assigned 50:50 for treatment with vaccine or placebo. Treatment in each zone remained blinded until the end of the study period. The outcome of interest was incident cases of tuberculosis measured as time to seroconversion events using the BrockTB Stat-Pak lateral flow serology test, supplemented with post-mortem examination. Among the vaccinated badgers that seroconverted, the median time to seroconversion (413 days) was significantly longer (p = 0.04) when compared with non-vaccinated animals (230 days). Survival analysis (modelling time to seroconversion) revealed that there was a significant difference in the rate of seroconversion between vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers in Zones A and C throughout the trial period (p = 0.015). For badgers enrolled during sweeps 1-2 the Vaccine Efficacy (VE) determined from hazard rate ratios was 36% (95% CI: -62%- 75%). For badgers enrolled in these zones during sweeps 3-6, the VE was 84% (95% CI: 29%- 97%). This indicated that VE increased with the level of vaccine coverage. Post-mortem examination of badgers at the end of the trial also revealed a significant difference in the proportion of animals presenting with M. bovis culture confirmed lesions in vaccinated Zone C (9%) compared with non-vaccinated Zone A (26%). These results demonstrate that oral BCG vaccination confers protection to badgers and could be used to reduce incident rates in tuberculosis-infected populations of badgers.
Green spaces play a crucial role in supporting urban ecological and social systems, a fact recognised in public policy commitments in both the UK and Europe. The amount of provision, the distribution ...of green space and the ease of access to such spaces are key contributors to social and ecological function in urban environments. We measured distance along the transport network to public green space available to households in Sheffield, and compared this with the distribution of private garden space. In addition, we used a geodemographic database, Mosaic UK, to examine how access to green space varies across different sectors of society. Public green spaces are chronically underprovided relative to recommended targets. For example, 64% of Sheffield households fail to meet the recommendation of the regulatory agency English Nature (EN), that people should live no further than 300
m from their nearest green space. Moreover, this figure rises to 72% if we restrict attention to municipal parks recognised by the local council. There is an overall reduction in coverage by green space when moving from neighbourhoods where green space is primarily publicly provided to those where it is privately provided. While access to public green space varies significantly across different social groups, those enjoying the greatest access include more deprived groups and older people. This study highlights the need for additional green space to be created and existing green space to be protected in light of increasing development pressure.
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•Increasing number of ecosystem services indicators generated, but impact questioned.•Credibility, salience and legitimacy (CSL) are crucial for informing decision making.•In ...addition, feasibility (F) criteria ensure continued assessment and use of indicators.•Sixteen selection criteria synthesized from practical experience and the literature.•A checklist to develop effective ecosystem service indicators.
Decision makers are increasingly interested in information from ecosystem services (ES) assessments. Scientists have for long recognised the importance of selecting appropriate indicators. Yet, while the amount and variety of indicators developed by scientists seems to increase continuously, the extent to which the indicators truly inform decision makers is often unknown and questioned. In this viewpoint paper, we reflect and provide guidance on how to develop appropriate ES indicators for informing decision making, building on scientific literature and practical experience collected from researchers involved in seven case studies. We synthesized 16 criteria for ES indicator selection and organized them according to the widely used categories of credibility, salience, legitimacy (CSL). We propose to consider additional criteria related to feasibility (F), as CSL criteria alone often seem to produce indicators which are unachievable in practice. Considering CSLF together requires a combination of scientific knowledge, communication skills, policy and governance insights and on-field experience. In conclusion, we present a checklist to evaluate CSLF of your ES indicators. This checklist helps to detect and mitigate critical shortcomings in an early phase of the development process, and aids the development of effective indicators to inform actual policy decisions.
Postnatal mortality among replacement stock has a detrimental effect on the social, economic, and environmental sustainability of dairy production. Calf mortality rates vary between countries and ...show differences in temporal trends; most, however, are characterized by high levels of between-farm variability. Explaining this variation can be difficult because herd-level information on management practices relevant to calf health is often not available. The Irish Johne's Control Programme (IJCP) contains a substantial on-farm monitoring program called the Veterinary Risk Assessment and Management Plan (VRAMP). Although this risk assessment is largely focused on factors relevant to the transmission of paratuberculosis, many of its principles are good practice biocontainment policies that are also advocated for the protection of calf health. The objectives of this study were (1) to quantify mortality in ear-tagged Irish dairy calves between 2016 and 2020 using both survival and risk approaches, (2) to determine risk factors for 100-d cumulative mortality hazard in ear-tagged Irish dairy calves between 2016 and 2020, (3) to determine whether 100-d cumulative mortality hazard was higher in ear-tagged calves within herds registered in the IJCP versus those that were not registered in the IJCP and whether there were differences between these cohorts over time, and (4) within IJCP herds, to determine whether VRAMP score or changes in VRAMP score were associated with 100-d cumulative mortality hazard. Excluding perinatal mortality, the overall 100-d cumulative mortality hazard was 4.1%. Calf mortality was consistently underestimated using risk approaches that did not account for calf censoring. Cox proportional hazards models showed that cumulative mortality hazard was greater in male calves; particularly, calves born to Jersey breed dams and those with a beef breed sire. Mortality hazard increased with increasing herd size, was highest in calves born in herds that contract-reared heifers, and lowest in those born in mixed dairy-beef enterprises. Mortality hazard decreased over time with the mortality hazard in 2020 being 0.83 times that of 2016. Mortality hazard was higher in IJCP-registered herds than nonregistered herds (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI 1.01–1.12), likely reflecting differences in herds that enrolled in the national program. However, we detected a significant interaction between IJCP status (enrolled vs. not enrolled) and year (hazard ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–1.00), indicating that the decrease in mortality hazard between 2016 and 2020 was greater in IJCP herds versus non-IJCP herds. Finally, increasing VRAMP scores (indicating higher risk for paratuberculosis transmission) were positively associated with increased calf mortality hazard. Postnatal calf mortality rates in Irish dairy herds declined between 2016 and 2020. Our study suggests that implementation of recommended biocontainment practices to control paratuberculosis in IJCP herds was associated with a reduction in calf mortality hazard.
A detailed understanding of herd types is needed for animal disease control and surveillance activities, to inform epidemiological study design and interpretation, and to guide effective policy ...decision-making. In this paper, we present a new approach to classify herd types in livestock systems by combining expert knowledge and a machine-learning algorithm called self-organising-maps (SOMs). This approach is applied to the cattle sector in Ireland, where a detailed understanding of herd types can assist with on-going discussions on control and surveillance for endemic cattle diseases. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the SOM algorithm has been used to differentiate livestock systems. In compliance with European Union (EU) requirements, relevant data in the Irish livestock register includes the birth, movements and disposal of each individual bovine, and also the sex and breed of each bovine and its dam. In total, 17 herd types were identified in Ireland using 9 variables. We provide a data-driven classification tree using decisions derived from the Irish livestock registration data. Because of the visual capabilities of the SOM algorithm, the interpretation of results is relatively straightforward and we believe our approach, with adaptation, can be used to classify herd type in any other livestock system.
Many studies report age as a risk factor for BoHV-1 infection or seropositivity. However, it is unclear whether this pattern reflects true epidemiological causation or is a consequence of study ...design and other issues. Here, we seek to understand the age-related dynamics of BoHV-1 seroprevalence in seasonal calving Irish dairy herds and provide decision support for the design and implementation of effective BoHV-1 testing strategies. We analysed seroprevalence data from dairy herds taken during two Irish seroprevalence surveys conducted between 2010 and 2017. Age-dependent seroprevalence profiles were constructed for herds that were seropositive and unvaccinated. Some of these profiles revealed a sudden increase in seroprevalence between adjacent age-cohorts, from absent or low to close to 100% of seropositive animals. By coupling the outcome of our data analysis with simulation output of an individual-based model at the herd scale, we have shown that these sudden increases are related to extensive virus circulation within a herd for a limited time, which may then subsequently remain latent over the following years. BoHV-1 outbreaks in dairy cattle herds affect animals independent of age and lead to almost 100% seroconversion in all age groups, or at least in all animals within a single epidemiological unit. In the absence of circulating infection, there is a year-on-year increase in the age-cohort at which seroprevalence changes from low to high. The findings of this study inform recommendations regarding testing regimes in the context of contingency planning or an eradication programme in seasonal calving dairy herds.
We used logistic regression to investigate whether the risk of an Irish cattle herd undergoing a bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdown increased with the size of the Ingoing Contact Chain (ICC) of ...previous herd to herd cattle movements, in a sequence up to eight moves back from the most recent, direct, movement into the herd. We further examined whether taking into account the bTB test history of each herd in the chain would improve model fit. We found that measures of cattle movements directly into the herd were risk factors for subsequent bTB restrictions, and the number of herds that animals were coming from was the most important of these. However, in contrast to a previous study in Great Britain, the ICC herd count at steps more remote than direct movements into the herd did not result in better fitting models than restricting the count to direct movements. Restricting the ICC counts to herds which had previously or would in the future test positive for bTB resulted in improved model fits, but this was not the case if only the previous test status was considered. This suggests that in many cases bTB infected animals are moving out of herds before being identified through testing, and that risk-based trading approaches should not rely solely on the previous test history of source herds as a proxy for future risk. Model fit was also improved by the inclusion of variables measuring bTB history of the herd, bTB in neighbouring herds, herd size, herd type, the movement network measures “in strength” and “betweenness”, altitude, modelled badger abundance and county. Rainfall was not a good predictor. The most influential measures of bTB in nearby herds (a proxy for neighbourhood infection) were the proportion of herds with a history of bTB whose centroids were within 6 km, or whose boundaries were within 4 km, of the index herd. As well as informing national control and surveillance measures, our models can be used to identify areas where bTB rates are anomalously high, to prompt further investigation in these areas.
•We modelled bTB in Irish Cattle herds, including Ingoing Contact Chains of movements as predictors.•Direct moves into herds were the most important.•Past and future test history of trading herds was the best predictor.•Other predictors were TB in nearby herds, herd size and type, In strength, betweenness, modelled badger density and altitude.
•Much variation was observed across Ireland in the distribution of movement and the distances moved.•Moves between herds tended to occur at close range, and often within the same county.•In contrast ...to similar studies, there was limited evidence that the data followed a power law.•Some herds combined a very high number of movements and long residence in the herd.•Different measures of the amount of movement experienced by a herd were often poorly correlated.
Our aim was to examine, for the first time, the spatial and network characteristics of cattle movements between herds in the Republic of Ireland (ROI), to inform policy and research of relevance to the surveillance and management of disease in Irish cattle. We analysed movements in 2016 as discrete herd to herd pairings (degree), herd to herd pairings by date of move (contacts) and herd to herd pairings by date and individual animal (transfers), and looked at each of these as movements out of a herd (out degree, out contacts, out transfers) and into a herd (in degree, in contacts, in transfers). We found that the frequency distributions, by herd, of these six move types were all heavily right skewed but in the case of the ‘out’ data types more closely followed a log-normal than the scale free distribution often reported for livestock movement data. For each distinct herd to herd contact in a given direction, over 90 % occurred only once, whereas the maximum number of occurrences was 62. Herd-level Spearman rank correlations between inward moves (represented as in degree, in contacts, in transfers) and outward moves (out degree, out contacts, out transfers) were weak or even negative whereas correlations between different measures of outward moves or inward moves (e.g. out degree vs. out contacts, in transfers vs. in degree) were stronger. Correlations between these variables and the network measure betweenness varied between r = 0.513 and r = 0.587. Some herds took part in a relatively large number of movements whilst also retaining their cattle for long periods (> 100 days) between moves. In and out degree, contacts and transfers were mapped across Ireland on a 5 km grid, and additionally normalized per 1000 animals and per herd. We found considerable variation in the number of movements by county. Approximately half of transfers were conducted within a single county, but the number and distance of between county movements varied considerably by county of origin and county of destination, with the proportion of moves completed within a single county correlated with its size. Herds exchanging cattle via a market were generally further apart than when moves were made directly herd to herd. For contacts, the distances moved away from the herd were on average greater for origin herds in the west of ROI whereas distances moved to a herd were generally greater for destination herds in the centre-east and the north-west.
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis which results in a significant economic cost to cattle industries and governments where it is endemic. In ...Ireland, the European badger is the main wildlife reservoir of infection. In this study, we investigated whether (motorway) road construction was associated with an increased risk of bTB in associated cattle herds. For this study, we considered three observation periods: pre-construction (2011–2014), construction (2015–2017) and post-construction (2018–2019). We selected 1543 herds situated, based on proximity, between >50 m and <5 km of the roadworks, and extracted information about their herd-size, herd-type, inward animal movements, bTB history, and distance to the roadworks. Generalized linear mixed models were performed, whose outcome were whether a herd experienced a bTB breakdown with ≥1 or ≥3 standard reactor/s, respectively. Herds located at a distance of >3 km from the roadworks were found to be at reduced risk of a bTB breakdown over the construction period compared with those situated within 1 km of the roadworks for ≥1 reactor/s (>3 km and construction vs. <1 km: OR: 0.595, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 0.354−0.999) or ≥3 reactors (>3 km and construction vs. <1 km: OR: 0.431, 95 % CI: 0.174–1.067). Other previously reported risk factors such as inward movements, herd-size and herd-type were also associated with bTB risk in the final models (≥1 reactor/s and ≥3 reactors). These findings appear to be consistent with bTB breakdowns being a consequence as opposed to coincident to road construction, given the temporal and spatial consistency of the evidence. The potential for badger social group disturbance leading to the spatial spread of infection to cattle herds, as previously described in the United Kingdom, could be a hypothetical mechanism to explain these findings. However, our findings are not consistent with previous Irish studies, including recent work from another road construction project, albeit running alongside and cross over an existing road rather than construction of a new road as in this case, or experiences from national targeted badger removal. Further research is warranted to verify this pattern occurs elsewhere, and the underlying biological mechanism. Until further data are available, we recommend that badgers are vaccinated, as a precautionary measure, in advance of the commencement of major roadworks.
The aim of this study was to create a clear visual representation of the live movements of cattle in the Republic of Ireland over the course of the year 2016. The animation created can be viewed ...online: https://youtu.be/PTCdPMnenBw This animation was created to be a communication tool to enable stakeholders to appreciate the extent of high risk cattle movements (farm to farm, farm to market to farm) in the Republic of Ireland and to highlight the potential role that these movements may play in the spread of infectious diseases of cattle in Ireland from one farm to another.
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