The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%-100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are ...consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.
The partitioning of aerosol particles between the cloud and the interstitial phase (i.e., unactivated aerosol) has been investigated during several Cloud and Aerosol Characterization Experiments ...(CLACE‐3, CLACE‐3 and CLACE‐4) conducted in winter and summer 2004 and winter 2005 at the high alpine research station Jungfraujoch (3580 m altitude, Switzerland). Ambient air was sampled using different inlets in order to determine the activated fraction of aerosol particles, FN, defined as the fraction of the total aerosol number concentration (with particle diameter dp > 100 nm) that has been incorporated into cloud particles. The liquid and ice water content of mixed‐phase clouds were characterized by analyzing multiple cloud probes. The dependence of the activated fraction on several environmental factors is discussed on the basis of more than 900 h of in‐cloud observations and parameterizations for key variables are given. FN is found to increase with increasing liquid water content and to decrease with increasing particle number concentration in liquid clouds. FN also decreases with increasing cloud ice mass fraction and with decreasing temperature from 0 to −25°C. The Wegener‐Bergeron‐Findeisen process probably contributed to this trend, since the presence of ice crystals causes liquid droplets to evaporate, thus releasing the formerly activated particles back into the interstitial phase. Ice nucleation could also have prevented additional cloud condensation nuclei from activating. The observed activation behavior has significant implications for our understanding of the indirect effect of aerosols on climate.
This paper studies the influence of particle chemical composition on the phase of cold clouds observed during two intensive measurement periods of the Cloud and Aerosol Characterization Experiments ...conducted at the Jungfraujoch site (Switzerland). Cloud droplets and particles were sampled simultaneously using a suite of optical, chemical, and microphysical instruments connected downstream of a total inlet and an interstitial inlet. Sulphate and organic matter were the most abundant semivolatile species observed in the particulate phase during both campaigns. Periods of relatively large loadings of organic and inorganic species were also accompanied by enhancement of light‐absorbing aerosol concentrations. The cloud phase exhibited sharp transitions, alternating between highly glaciated and liquid phases over a few seconds within the same cloud event. It was also observed that conditions of elevated pollution were accompanied by an increase in occurrence of glaciated periods. The 24‐hour cloud event investigated on the 8 March 2004 was in the mixed phase for approximately 260 minutes, in the glaciated phase for approximately 64 minutes and in the liquid phase for the remainder of the time. On the 23 March 2004, another 24‐hour cloud event was captured in which the number of minutes as mixed‐phase and glaciated cloud were 196 and 31, respectively. The loadings of BC as well as organic and inorganic species were larger during the first period. The investigation was extended for the whole data set, and a statistical analysis was performed across the chemical data measured off the total inlet. The amount of organic and inorganic material found in liquid and glaciated clouds was statistically different, with organic and inorganic material as well as BC being enriched in glaciated conditions. The case studies and the statistical analysis together suggest an influence of the particle chemical composition on the cloud phase, which may be important in perturbing cloud microphysics in polluted regions.
A method to determine the particle nucleation rate directly from atmospheric measurements is presented. During the Southern Ontario Oxidant Study (SONTOS) field campaign in rural Ontario, Canada, ...particle size distributions and concentrations of a range of photochemical species were measured. On 25 August 1993, the size distribution showed a pronounced peak in the concentration of nucleation mode particles. This correlated with, but lagged behind, a peak in the SO2 concentration. The data imply that nucleation occurred aloft as an SO2 plume was entrained into the growing boundary layer. The particle growth rates were determined from the evolution of the measured particle size distributions, while accounting for coagulation and dilution. In principle, measurements of precursor species are not needed. However, in this case study, the ground‐based measurements did not reflect the aerosol concentrations in the plume aloft; as a result, extrapolation of the growth rate was necessary. This was accomplished by using a one‐dimensional model to calculate the gas phase sulfuric acid concentration. The particle growth rate due to condensation of H2SO4 was calculated and used to extrapolate the observed growth backward to obtain the time of formation. From the particle number in a certain size interval, suitably corrected for losses by coagulation and dilution, and the time interval in which they formed, the nucleation rate can be determined. We obtained nucleation rates of 5–40 cm−3 s−1 for sulfuric acid mixing ratios of 3–10 pptv. These nucleation rates are higher than predicted by classical binary nucleation theory for H2SO4 and H2O.
Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its ...size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents’ quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contributionmay have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents’ views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.
Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is ...a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a “poster species” for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere.
This study reports the first long‐term trend analysis of aerosol optical measurements at the high‐alpine site Jungfraujoch, which started 10.5 years ago. Since the aerosol variables are approximately ...lognormally distributed, the seasonal Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied as nonparametric methods to detect the long‐term trends for each month. The yearly trend was estimated by a least‐mean‐square fit, and the number of years necessary to detect this trend was calculated. The most significant trend is the increase (4–7% yr−1) in light‐scattering coefficients during the September to December period. The light absorption and backscattering coefficients and the aerosol number concentration also show a positive trend during this time of the year. The hemispheric backscattering fraction and the scattering exponent calculated with the smaller wavelengths (450 and 550 nm), which relate to the small aerosol size fraction, decrease except during the summer, whereas the scattering exponent calculated with the larger wavelengths (550 and 700 nm) remains constant. Generally, the summer months at the Jungfraujoch, which are strongly influenced by planetary boundary layer air masses, do not show any long‐term trend. The trends determined by least‐mean‐square fits of the scattering and backscattering coefficients, the hemispheric backscattering fractions, and the scattering exponent are significant, and the number of years necessary to detect them is shorter than 10 years. For these variables, the trends and the slopes estimated by the seasonal Kendall test are therefore confirmed by the least‐mean‐square fit results.
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