Dust particles from high latitudes have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and the environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants, and nutrient ...sources. Identifying the locations of local dust sources and their emission, transport, and deposition processes is important for understanding the multiple impacts of high-latitude dust (HLD) on the Earth’s systems. Here, we identify, describe, and quantify the source intensity (SI) values, which show the potential of soil surfaces for dust emission scaled to values 0 to 1 concerning globally best productive sources, using the Global Sand and Dust Storms Source Base Map (G-SDS-SBM). This includes 64 HLD sources in our collection for the northern (Alaska, Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Sweden, and Russia) and southern (Antarctica and Patagonia) high latitudes. Activity from most of these HLD sources shows seasonal character. It is estimated that high-latitude land areas with higher (SI ≥ 0.5), very high (SI ≥ 0.7), and the highest potential (SI ≥ 0.9) for dust emission cover > 1 670 000 km2 , > 560 000 km2 , and > 240 000 km2 , respectively. In the Arctic HLD region (≥ 60◦ N), land area with SI ≥ 0.5 is 5.5 % (1 035 059 km2), area with SI ≥ 0.7 is 2.3 % (440 804 km2), and area with SI ≥ 0.9 is 1.1 % (208 701 km2). Minimum SI values in the northern HLD region are about 3 orders of magnitude smaller, indicating that the dust sources of this region greatly depend on weather conditions. Our spatial dust source distribution analysis modeling results showed evidence supporting a northern HLD belt, defined as the area north of 50◦ N, with a “transitional HLD-source area” extending at latitudes 50–58◦ N in Eurasia and 50–55◦ N in Canada and a “cold HLD-source area” including areas north of 60◦ N in Eurasia and north of 58◦ N in Canada, with currently “no dust source” area between the HLD and low-latitude dust (LLD) dust belt, except for British Columbia. Using the global atmospheric transport model SILAM, we estimated that 1.0 % of the global dust emission originated from the high-latitude regions. About 57 % of the dust deposition in snow- and ice-covered Arctic regions was from HLD sources. In the southern HLD region, soil surface conditions are favorable for dust emission during the whole year. Climate change can cause a decrease in the duration of snow cover, retreat of glaciers, and an increase in drought, heatwave intensity, and frequency, leading to the increasing frequency of topsoil conditions favorable for dust emission, which increases the probability of dust storms. Our study provides a step forward to improve the representation of HLD in models and to monitor, quantify, and assess the environmental and climate significance of HLD.
The commercial apple production in Norway is limited to the small regions along the fjords in the southwest part of the country and around lakes or near the sea in the southeast with favorable ...climate. Due to the rapid rate of climate change over the recent decades, it is expected that suitable heat conditions for apple growing will expand to the areas that were previously too cold. This study analyses the heat suitability of future climate (2021–2100) under the RCP8.5 scenario for 6 common apple varieties in Norway: Discovery, Gravenstein, Summerred, Aroma, Rubinstep and Elstar. Previously established heat requirement criteria (based on the temperature threshold for the full blooming and growing degree days sum between the full bloom and harvest) are applied to the temperature outputs of the regional climate models downscaled to 1 km resolution. The assessment indicates that as temperature rises, heat conditions suitable for cultivation of all 6 apple varieties will expand. According to the ensemble median value, areas with the favorable heat conditions for growing at least one of the considered apple varieties will increase 25 times in the period 2021–2040 and 60 times in the period 2041–2060, compared to the referent period 1971–2000. At the same time, areas suitable for all 6 apple varieties will increase 3 times in the first, and 3.8 times in the latter period. The favorable areas will advance from south and southeast northwards and inland in the eastern region, along the west and northwestern coastline towards higher latitudes, and along continental parts of fjords. The fastest expansion of heat suitable conditions is expected for Discovery and Gravenstein. The findings of this study are relevant for zoning apple production future potential and for strategical planning of climate change adaptation measures within the sector. Weather-related risks, such as risks from winter low temperatures, spring frost, drought and extreme precipitation were not considered.
Agricultural production is already, and obviously, affected by climate change. Adapting to climate change includes reducing future risks to ensure yield quality and quantity and considers seizing any ...potential opportunities induced by climate change. In higher latitude areas, such as Norway, cold climate limits the cultivation of fruits. An increase in temperature offers more favorable conditions for fruit production. In this study, using available phenological observations (full blooming) and harvest dates, and meteorological data from the experimental orchard of NIBIO Ullensvang, the minimum heat requirements for growing different apple varieties are determined. Those criteria are used for zoning of the areas with heat favorable conditions for apple growing. Data on six varieties were used, with lower and higher requirements for heat for fruit development (Discovery, Gravenstein, Summerred, Aroma, Rubinstep, and Elstar). High resolution daily temperature data were generated and used for zoning of the areas with heat favorable conditions for apple growing within the selected domain, which includes Western Norway, Southern Norway, Eastern Norway, and the western part of Trøndelag, Mid-Norway. Dynamics of the change in such surfaces was assessed for the period of 1961–2020. The total surface with favorable heat conditions for growing the varieties with lesser requirement for heat increased three times during this period. The growing of more heat-demanding varieties increased from near zero to about 2.5% of the studied land surface. In the period of 2011–2020, surface area with favorable heat conditions for apple growing was almost 27,000 km2, and a surface area of about 4600 km2 can sustain growing of more heat-demanding varieties. The presented results show the increasing potential of the climate of Norway for apple cultivation and highlight the importance of implementation of fruit production planned according to climate change trends, including the assessment of potential risks from climate hazards. However, the methodology for determining heat requirements can be improved by using phenological ripening dates if available, rather than harvest dates which are impacted by human decision. Zoning of areas with the potential of sustainable apple growing requires the use of future climate change assessments and information on land-related features.
Risks associated with dust hazards are often underappreciated, a gap between the knowledge pool and public awareness that can be costly for impacted communities. This study reviews the emission ...sources and chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of airborne soil particles (dust) and their effects on human and environmental health and safety in the Pan‐American region. American dust originates from both local sources (western United States, northern Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) and long‐range transport from Africa and Asia. Dust properties, as well as the trends and interactions with criteria air pollutants, are summarized. Human exposure to dust is associated with adverse health effects, including asthma, allergies, fungal infections, and premature death. In the Americas, a well‐documented and striking effect of soil dust is its association with Coccidioidomycosis, commonly known as Valley fever, an infection caused by inhalation of soil‐dwelling fungi unique to this region. Besides human health, dust affects environmental health through nutrients that increase phytoplankton biomass, contaminants that diminish water supply and affect food (crops/fruits/vegetables and ready‐to‐eat meat), spread crop and marine pathogens, cause Valley fever among domestic and wild animals, transport heavy metals, radionuclides and microplastics, and reduce solar and wind power generation. Dust is also a safety hazard to road transportation and aviation, in the southwestern US where blowing dust is one of the deadliest weather hazards. To mitigate the harmful effects, coordinated regional and international efforts are needed to enhance dust observations and prediction capabilities, soil conservation measures, and Valley fever and other disease surveillance.
Plain Language Summary
Soil particles suspended in the air, commonly known as dust, impose substantial risks to many sectors of society, including human health, environmental health, transportation safety and the general economy. This work focuses on the dust effects in the Pan‐American region, where the knowledge is rather fragmented, but impacts are costly. Dust in the Americas either comes from local sources or is transported by winds from Asia and Africa. Human exposure to dust can cause adverse health effects, such as asthma, Valley fever, and even death. Dust affects the environment by supplying nutrients to ecosystems, contaminating water and food, spreading pathogens, microplastics, heavy metals and radionuclides, and reducing solar and wind power generation. Dust is also one of the deadliest weather hazards particularly in the southwestern United States. Finally, the measures to mitigate these harmful effects include coordinated dust prediction and early warning, soil conservation, and public health surveillance.
Key Points
Human exposure to dust has been associated with adverse health effects, including asthma, fungal infections, and premature death
Dust provides nutrients to ecosystems, pollutes water and food, spreads pathogens and radionuclides, and reduces solar generation
Dust is a major safety hazard to road transportation, aviation, and marine navigation
The Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System (IAPS) was a two-year project for the development of the long term forecast (LRF) for agricultural producers. Using LRF in decision-making, to ...reduce the risks and seize the opportunities, represents short-term adaptation to climate change. High-resolution ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) were made for a period of 7 months and were initiated on the first day of each month. For the initial testing of the capacity of LRF to provide useful information for producers, 2017 was chosen as the test year as it had a very hot summer and severe drought, which caused significant impacts on agricultural production. LRF was very useful in predicting the variables which bear the memory of the longer period, such are growing degree days for the prediction of dates of the phenophases’ occurrences and the soil moisture of deeper soil layers as an indicator for the drought. Other project activities included field observations, communication with producers, web portal development, etc. Our results showed that the selected priority forecasting products were also identified by the producers as being the highest weather-related risks, the operational forecast implementation with the products designed for the use in agricultural production is proven to be urgent and necessary for decision-making, and required investments are affordable. The total cost of the full upgrade of agrometeorological climate services to meet current needs (including monitoring, seamless forecasting system development and the development of tools for information dissemination) was found to be about three orders of magnitude lower than the assessed losses in agricultural production in the two extreme years over the past decade.
Icelandic topsoil sediments, as confirmed by numerous scientific studies, represent the largest and the most important European source of mineral dust. Strong winds, connected with the intensive ...cyclonic circulation in the North Atlantic, induce intense emissions of mineral dust from local sources all year and carry away these fine aerosol particles for thousands of kilometers. Various impacts of airborne mineral dust particles on local air quality, human health, transportation, climate and marine ecosystems motivated us to design a fully dynamic coupled atmosphere–dust numerical modelling system in order to simulate, predict and quantify the Icelandic mineral dust process including: local measurements and source specification over Iceland. In this study, we used the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) with improved Icelandic high resolution dust source specification and implemented spatially variable particle size distribution, variable snow cover and soil wetness. Three case studies of intense short- and long-range transport were selected to evaluate the model performance. Results demonstrated the model’s capability to forecast major transport features, such as timing, and horizontal and vertical distribution of the processes. This modelling system can be used as an operational forecasting system, but also as a reliable tool for assessing climate and environmental Icelandic dust impacts.
On 2 June 2014, at about 13 UTC, a dust storm arrived in Tehran as a severe hazard that caused injures, deaths, failures in power supply, and traffic disruption. Such an extreme event is not ...considered as common for the Tehran area, which has raised the question of the dust storm’s origin and the need for increasing citizens’ preparedness during such events. The analysis of the observational data and numerical simulations using coupled dust-atmospheric models showed that intensive convective activity occurred over the south and southwest of Tehran, which produced cold downdrafts and, consequently, high-velocity surface winds. Different dust source masks were used as an input for model hindcasts of the event (forecasts of the past event) to show the capability of the numerical models to perform high-quality forecasts in such events and to expand the knowledge on the storm’s formation and progression. In addition to the proven capability of the models, if engaged in operational use to contribute to the establishment of an early warning system for dust storms, another conclusion appeared as a highlight of this research: abandoned agricultural areas south of Tehran were responsible for over 50% of the airborne dust concentration within the dust storm that surged through Tehran. Such a dust source in the numerical simulation produced a PM10 surface dust concentration of several thousand μm/m3, which classifies it as a dust source hot-spot. The produced evidence indivisibly links issues of land degradation, extreme weather, environmental protection, and health and safety.
Climate change, through changes in temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme events, has influenced agricultural production and food security over the past several decades. In order to ...assess climate and weather-related risks to fruit and grape production in Serbia, changes in bioclimatic indices and frequency of the occurrence of unfavourable weather events are spatially analysed for the past two decades (1998–2017) and the standard climatological period 1961–1990. Between the two periods, the Winkler and Huglin indices changed into a warmer category in most of the viticultural regions of Serbia. The average change shift was about 200 m towards higher elevations. Regarding the frequency of spring frost, high summer temperatures and water deficit, the most vulnerable regions in terms of fruit and grape production are found alongside large rivers (Danube, Sava, Great and South Morava), as well as in the northern part of the country. Regions below 300 m are under increased risk of high summer temperatures, as the number and duration of occurrences increased significantly over the studied periods. The high-resolution spatial analysis presented here gives an assessment of the climate change influence on the fruit and grapes production. The presented approach may be used in regional impact assessments and national planning of adaptation measures, and it may help increase resilience of agricultural production to climate change.
Abstract Mineral dust produced by wind erosion of arid and semiarid surfaces is a major component of atmospheric aerosol that affects climate, weather, ecosystems, and socioeconomic sectors such as ...human health, transportation, solar energy, and air quality. Understanding these effects and ultimately improving the resilience of affected countries requires a reliable, dense, and diverse set of dust observations, fundamental for the development and the provision of skillful dust-forecast-tailored products. The last decade has seen a notable improvement of dust observational capabilities in terms of considered parameters, geographical coverage, and delivery times, as well as of tailored products of interest to both the scientific community and the various end-users. Given this progress, here we review the current state of observational capabilities, including in situ, ground-based, and satellite remote sensing observations in northern Africa, the Middle East, and Europe for the provision of dust information considering the needs of various users. We also critically discuss observational gaps and related unresolved questions while providing suggestions for overcoming the current limitations. Our review aims to be a milestone for discussing dust observational gaps at a global level to address the needs of users, from research communities to nonscientific stakeholders.
The mineralogical composition of airborne dust particles is an important but often neglected parameter for several physiochemical processes, such as atmospheric radiative transfer and ocean ...biochemistry. We present the development of the METAL-WRF module for the simulation of the composition of desert dust minerals in atmospheric aerosols. The new development is based on the GOCART-AFWA dust module of WRF-Chem. A new wet deposition scheme has been implemented in the dust module alongside the existing dry deposition scheme. The new model includes separate prognostic fields for nine (9) minerals: illite, kaolinite, smectite, calcite, quartz, feldspar, hematite, gypsum, and phosphorus, derived from the GMINER30 database and also iron derived from the FERRUM30 database. Two regional model sensitivity studies are presented for dust events that occurred in August and December 2017, which include a comparison of the model versus elemental dust composition measurements performed in the North Atlantic (at Izaña Observatory, Tenerife Island) and in the eastern Mediterranean (at Agia Marina Xyliatos station, Cyprus Island). The results indicate the important role of dust minerals, as dominant aerosols, for the greater region of North Africa, South Europe, the North Atlantic, and the Middle East, including the dry and wet depositions away from desert sources. Overall, METAL-WRF was found to be capable of reproducing the relative abundances of the different dust minerals in the atmosphere. In particular, the concentration of iron (Fe), which is an important element for ocean biochemistry and solar absorption, was modeled in good agreement with the corresponding measurements at Izaña Observatory (22% overestimation) and at Agia Marina Xyliatos site (4% overestimation). Further model developments, including the implementation of newer surface mineralogical datasets, e.g., from the NASA-EMIT satellite mission, can be implemented in the model to improve its accuracy.
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