We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process ...understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult‐to‐quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6‐3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3‐4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5‐95% ranges are 2.3‐4.7 K, bounded by 2.0‐5.7 K (although such high‐confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing‐feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.
Using a sample of four galaxy clusters at 1.35 < z < 1.65 and 10 galaxy clusters at 0.85 < z < 1.35, we measure the environmental quenching timescale, tQ, corresponding to the time required after a ...galaxy is accreted by a cluster for it to fully cease star formation. Cluster members are selected by a photometric-redshift criterion, and categorized as star-forming, quiescent, or intermediate according to their dust-corrected rest-frame colors and magnitudes. We employ a "delayed-then-rapid" quenching model that relates a simulated cluster mass accretion rate to the observed numbers of each type of galaxy in the cluster to constrain tQ. For galaxies of mass M* 1010.5 M , we find a quenching timescale of tQ = Gyr in the z ∼ 1.5 cluster sample, and Gyr at z ∼ 1. Using values drawn from the literature, we compare the redshift evolution of tQ to timescales predicted for different physical quenching mechanisms. We find tQ to depend on host halo mass such that quenching occurs over faster timescales in clusters relative to groups, suggesting that properties of the host halo are responsible for quenching high-mass galaxies. Between z = 0 and z = 1.5, we find that tQ evolves faster than the molecular gas depletion timescale and slower than an estimated star formation rate-outflow timescale, but is consistent with the evolution of the dynamical time. This suggests that environmental quenching in these galaxies is driven by the motion of satellites relative to the cluster environment, although due to uncertainties in the atomic gas budget at high redshift, we cannot rule out quenching due to simple gas depletion.
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