Case-fatality from COVID-19 has been reported to be relatively high in patients age 65 years or older. We sought to determine the age-specific rates of COVID-19 mortality at the population level.
We ...obtained information regarding the total number of COVID-19 reported deaths for six consecutive weeks beginning at the 50th recorded death, among 16 countries that reported a relatively high number of COVID-19 cases as of April 12, 2020. We performed an ecological study to model COVID-19 mortality rates per week by age group (54 years or younger, 55-64 years, and 65 years or older) and sex using a Poisson mixed effects regression model.
Over the six-week period of data, there were 178,568 COVID-19 deaths from a total population of approximately 2.4 billion people. Age and sex were associated with COVID-19 mortality. Compared with individuals ages 54 years or younger, the incident rate ratio (IRR) was 8.1, indicating that the mortality rate of COVID-19 was 8.1 times higher (95%CI = 7.7, 8.5) among those 55 to 64 years, and more than 62 times higher (IRR = 62.1; 95%CI = 59.7, 64.7) among those ages 65 or older. Mortality rates from COVID-19 were 77% higher in men than in women (IRR = 1.77, 95%CI = 1.74, 1.79).
In the 16 countries examined, persons age 65 years or older had strikingly higher COVID-19 mortality rates compared to younger individuals, and men had a higher risk of COVID-19 death than women.
Randomized trials of the efficacy of multi-cancer early detection, by means of measurement of cell-free DNA and/or protein biomarkers in peripheral blood specimens, will attempt to document a ...difference in cancer mortality between persons assigned to intervention and control arms. Their ability to do so is limited by the relatively low rate of death from individual forms of cancer, the relatively low sensitivity of the tests currently being used, and the use of other cancer screening modalities among trial participants. However, if those same blood specimens also could be obtained from control arm participants in a given trial and then tested for the same markers, with results not known (or not made available) until the conclusion of follow-up for cancer mortality, it would be possible to compare mortality from given forms of cancer between test-positive individuals whose results were known and not known during the course of the trial. Such an analysis addresses the impact of a stimulus to offer targeted diagnostic testing, potentially leading to early treatment, against cancer mortality. Among persons who screen as positive, it should provide a relatively more sensitive means of gauging a possible mortality benefit resulting from multi-cancer screening.
Abstract
Multicancer early detection (MCED) tests may soon be available to screen for many cancers using a single blood test, yet little is known about these tests beyond their diagnostic ...performance. Taking lessons from the history of cancer early detection, we highlight 3 factors that influence how performance of early detection tests translates into benefit and benefit-harm trade-offs: the ability to readily confirm a cancer signal, the population testing strategy, and the natural histories of the targeted cancers. We explain why critical gaps in our current knowledge about each factor prevent reliably projecting the expected clinical impact of MCED testing at this point in time. Our goal is to communicate how much uncertainty there is about the possible effects of MCED tests on population health so that patients, providers, regulatory agencies, and the public are well informed about what is reasonable to expect from this potentially important technological advance. We also urge the community to invest in a coordinated effort to collect data on MCED test dissemination and outcomes so that these can be tracked and studied while the tests are rigorously evaluated for benefit, harm, and cost.
Abstract Objective We review the uses of electronic health care data algorithms, measures of their accuracy, and reasons for prioritizing one measure of accuracy over another. Study Design and ...Setting We use real studies to illustrate the variety of uses of automated health care data in epidemiologic and health services research. Hypothetical examples show the impact of different types of misclassification when algorithms are used to ascertain exposure and outcome. Results High algorithm sensitivity is important for reducing the costs and burdens associated with the use of a more accurate measurement tool, for enhancing study inclusiveness, and for ascertaining common exposures. High specificity is important for classifying outcomes. High positive predictive value is important for identifying a cohort of persons with a condition of interest but that need not be representative of or include everyone with that condition. Finally, a high negative predictive value is important for reducing the likelihood that study subjects have an exclusionary condition. Conclusion Epidemiologists must often prioritize one measure of accuracy over another when generating an algorithm for use in their study. We recommend researchers publish all tested algorithms—including those without acceptable accuracy levels—to help future studies refine and apply algorithms that are well suited to their objectives.
IMPORTANCE: Diabetic kidney disease is the leading cause of chronic and end-stage kidney disease in the United States and worldwide. Changes in demographics and treatments may affect the prevalence ...and clinical manifestations of diabetic kidney disease. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the clinical manifestations of kidney disease among US adults with diabetes over time. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Serial cross-sectional studies of adults aged 20 years or older with diabetes mellitus participating in National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 1988 through 2014. EXPOSURES: Diabetes was defined as hemoglobin A1c greater than 6.5% or use of glucose-lowering medications. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g), macroalbuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥300 mg/g), reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2), and severely reduced eGFR (<30 mL/min/1.73 m2), incorporating data on biological variability to estimate the prevalence of persistent abnormalities. RESULTS: There were 6251 adults with diabetes included (1431 from 1988-1994, 1443 from 1999-2004, 1280 from 2005-2008, and 2097 from 2009-2014). The prevalence of any diabetic kidney disease, defined as persistent albuminuria, persistent reduced eGFR, or both, did not significantly change over time from 28.4% (95% CI, 23.8%-32.9%) in 1988-1994 to 26.2% (95% CI, 22.6%-29.9%) in 2009-2014 (prevalence ratio, 0.95 95% CI, 0.86-1.06 adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity; P = .39 for trend). However, the prevalence of albuminuria decreased progressively over time from 20.8% (95% CI, 16.3%-25.3%) in 1988-1994 to 15.9% (95% CI, 12.7%-19.0%) in 2009-2014 (adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.76 95% CI, 0.65-0.89; P < .001 for trend). In contrast, the prevalence of reduced eGFR increased from 9.2% (95% CI, 6.2%-12.2%) in 1988-1994 to 14.1% (95% CI, 11.3%-17.0%) in 2009-2014 (adjusted prevalence ratio, 1.61 95% CI, 1.33-1.95 comparing 2009-2014 with 1988-1994; P < .001 for trend), with a similar pattern for severely reduced eGFR (adjusted prevalence ratio, 2.86 95% CI, 1.38-5.91; P = .004 for trend). Significant heterogeneity in the temporal trend for albuminuria was noted by age (P = .049 for interaction) and race/ethnicity (P = .007 for interaction), with a decreasing prevalence of albuminuria observed only among adults younger than 65 years and non-Hispanic whites, whereas the prevalence of reduced GFR increased without significant differences by age or race/ethnicity. In 2009-2014, approximately 8.2 million adults with diabetes (95% CI, 6.5-9.9 million adults) had albuminuria, reduced eGFR, or both. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among US adults with diabetes from 1988 to 2014, the overall prevalence of diabetic kidney disease did not change significantly, whereas the prevalence of albuminuria declined and the prevalence of reduced eGFR increased.
Some forms of cancer screening have the potential to reduce cancer incidence, if the screening modality can identify not only a malignancy but a treatable premalignant condition (such as a colon ...polyp) as well. Cohort studies of the efficacy of these forms of screening in reducing the incidence of cancer face many challenges, notably the difficulty in distinguishing whether a test performed in a given individual was screening or diagnostic in nature. Downward bias in the estimated efficacy of screening resulting from misclassification of test indication is a particular problem in cohort studies that seek to gauge cancer incidence beginning at the time of screening (and a corresponding point in time among unscreened persons). The downward bias is accentuated in those cohort studies that have sought to mimic the "intention-to-treat" analytical approach used in randomized trials, in which initially unscreened persons are retained in this category even if later they themselves undergo screening.
Recent studies suggest that cancer increases risk of atrial fibrillation. Whether atrial fibrillation is a marker for underlying occult cancer is unknown.
We conducted a cohort study (1980-2011) of ...all Danish patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation. To examine cancer risk, we computed absolute risk at 3 months and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) by comparing observed cancer incidence among patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation with that expected based on national cancer incidence during the period.
Median follow-up time was 3.4 years among 269 742 atrial fibrillation patients. Within 3 months of follow-up, 6656 cancers occurred (absolute risk, 2.5%; 95% confidence intervals CI, 2.4%-2.5%) versus 1302 expected, yielding a SIR of 5.11; 95% CI, 4.99-5.24. Associations were particularly strong for cancers of the lung, kidney, colon, ovary, and for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The SIR within 3 months of follow-up was 7.02; 95% CI, 6.76-7.28 for metastatic and 3.53; 95% CI, 3.38-3.68 for localized cancer. Beyond 3 months of follow-up, overall cancer risk was modestly increased (SIR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.12-1.15).
Patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation had a markedly increased relative risk of a cancer diagnosis within the next three months, however, corresponding absolute risk was small.
ObjectiveScreening colonoscopy's effectiveness in reducing colorectal cancer mortality risk in community populations is unclear, particularly for right-colon cancers, leading to recommendations ...against its use for screening in some countries. This study aimed to determine whether, among average-risk people, receipt of screening colonoscopy reduces the risk of dying from both right-colon and left-colon/rectal cancers.DesignWe conducted a nested case–control study with incidence-density matching in screening-eligible Kaiser Permanente members. Patients who were 55–90 years old on their colorectal cancer death date during 2006–2012 were matched on diagnosis (reference) date to controls on age, sex, health plan enrolment duration and geographical region. We excluded patients at increased colorectal cancer risk, or with prior colorectal cancer diagnosis or colectomy. The association between screening colonoscopy receipt in the 10-year period before the reference date and colorectal cancer death risk was evaluated while accounting for other screening exposures.ResultsWe analysed 1747 patients who died from colorectal cancer and 3460 colorectal cancer-free controls. Compared with no endoscopic screening, receipt of a screening colonoscopy was associated with a 67% reduction in the risk of death from any colorectal cancer (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.33, 95% CI 0.21 to 0.52). By cancer location, screening colonoscopy was associated with a 65% reduction in risk of death for right-colon cancers (aOR=0.35, CI 0.18 to 0.65) and a 75% reduction for left-colon/rectal cancers (aOR=0.25, CI 0.12 to 0.53).ConclusionsScreening colonoscopy was associated with a substantial and comparably decreased mortality risk for both right-sided and left-sided cancers within a large community-based population.
Background & Aims Although patients with Barrett’s esophagus commonly undergo endoscopic surveillance, its effectiveness in reducing mortality from esophageal/gastroesophageal junction ...adenocarcinomas has not been evaluated rigorously. Methods We performed a case-control study in a community-based setting. Among 8272 members with Barrett’s esophagus, we identified 351 esophageal adenocarcinoma: 70 in persons who had a prior diagnosis of Barrett’s esophagus (who were eligible for surveillance); 51 of these patients died, 38 as a result of the cancers (cases). Surveillance histories were contrasted with a sample of 101 living persons with Barrett’s esophagus (controls), matched for age, sex, and duration of follow-up evaluation. Results Surveillance within 3 years was not associated with a decreased risk of death from esophageal adenocarcinoma (adjusted odds ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.36–2.75). Fatal cases were nearly as likely to have received surveillance (55.3%) as were controls (60.4%). A Barrett’s esophagus length longer than 3 cm and prior dysplasia each were associated with subsequent mortality, but adjustment for these did not change the main findings. Although all patients should be included in evaluations of effectiveness, excluding deaths related to cancer treatment and patients who failed to complete treatment, changed the magnitude, but not the significance, of the association (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.13–1.64). Conclusions Endoscopic surveillance of patients with Barrett’s esophagus was not associated with a substantially decreased risk of death from esophageal adenocarcinoma. The results do not exclude a small to moderate benefit. However, if such a benefit exists, our findings indicate that it is substantially smaller than currently estimated. The effectiveness of surveillance was influenced partially by the acceptability of existing treatments and the occurrence of treatment-associated mortality.
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