Across all three major modalities of cure—surgery, radiotherapy, and systemic therapy—a 4-week delay in treatment increases mortality by between 6% and 13% for solid cancers, with further increases ...if the delay is longer.4 Communities with the largest cancer burden and suffering the strongest effects of COVID-19 are often also the communities with the least access to timely cancer care, further exacerbating the differences in cancer care throughout the UK. There will be further collateral damage to the cancer diagnosis and treatment pathways with the upcoming winter hospital bed crisis, the threat of industrial action, the 2% annual rise in cancer incidence, and the current economic crisis. Implications for UK patients with cancer A European analysis predicted an expected 17% increase in the number of cancer deaths in the UK after delays in cancer diagnosis and treatment.13 Increasing numbers of patients are turning to the private sector and the disparity in health-care provision across the UK is worsening. Disruption to all three national screening programmes (ie, breast, cervical, and bowel cancer) had a disproportionate effect on women and is estimated to result in up to 687 additional breast cancer deaths, although the severity of the effects will depend on the speed of recovery of services.
Summary Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) constitutes a major public health problem, with up to half of screen-detected cancers representing pure forms of DCIS without evidence of invasion. A ...proportion of cases detected with routine screening would not have progressed to a life-threatening form of breast cancer during the patient's lifetime, and overdiagnosis of breast cancer is a cause for concern. Once DCIS has been detected, treatment is obligatory and present technologies do not allow accurate risk stratification such that intensity of treatment can be tailored to risk of recurrence and progression to invasive disease. Present management strategies are based on prognostic and predictive information derived from conventional histopathological and host factors. With increasing molecular characterisation of these preinvasive lesions, data will be available for how factors such as oestrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, HER2, and indicators of proliferative activity can provide additional information about both prognosis and benefit from adjuvant treatments such as radiotherapy and hormonal therapy. Low-risk patients are especially poorly defined in terms of need for adjuvant therapies, which can be associated with both short-term adverse sequelae and long-term effects (eg, cardiotoxicity) that can affect all-cause mortality. Optimum risk prediction in the future is likely to be achieved by integration of both conventional and molecular factors, which should be incorporated into a validated predictive model to help with clinical decision making.
PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to ...underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status.
Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT.
In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age of 40.
The PREDICT v2 is an improved prognostication and treatment benefit model compared with v1. The online version should continue to aid clinical decision making in women with early breast cancer.
The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK.
Using the Eastern ...Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation.
Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (18.9% vs. 19.0%) and WMCIU (17.5% vs. 18.3%) with area under receiver-operator-characteristic curves (AUC) of 0.81 and 0.79 respectively. Differences in breast cancer specific actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (12.9% vs. 13.5%) and <1.5% at eight years for WMCIU (12.2% vs. 13.6%) with AUC of 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. Model calibration was good for both ER positive and negative models although the ER positive model provided better discrimination (AUC 0.82) than ER negative (AUC 0.75).
We have developed a prognostication model for early breast cancer based on UK cancer registry data that predicts breast cancer survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer and includes mode of detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.
There are few randomized controlled trial data to confirm that improved homogeneity with simple intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) decreases late breast tissue toxicity. The Cambridge Breast ...IMRT trial investigated this hypothesis, and the 5-year results are reported.
Standard tangential plans of 1,145 trial patients were analyzed; 815 patients had inhomogeneous plans (≥ 2 cm(3) receiving 107% of prescribed dose: 40 Gy in 15 fractions over 3 weeks) and were randomly assigned to standard radiotherapy (RT) or replanned with simple IMRT; 330 patients with satisfactory dose homogeneity were treated with standard RT and underwent the same follow-up as the randomly assigned patients. Breast tissue toxicities were assessed at 5 years using validated methods: photographic assessment (overall cosmesis and breast shrinkage compared with baseline pre-RT photographs) and clinical assessment (telangiectasia, induration, edema, and pigmentation). Comparisons between different groups were analyzed using polychotomous logistic regression.
On univariate analysis, compared with standard RT, fewer patients in the simple IMRT group developed suboptimal overall cosmesis (odds ratio OR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.96; P = .027) and skin telangiectasia (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.92; P = .021). No evidence of difference was seen for breast shrinkage, breast edema, tumor bed induration, or pigmentation. The benefit of IMRT was maintained on multivariate analysis for both overall cosmesis (P = .038) and skin telangiectasia (P = .031).
Improved dose homogeneity with simple IMRT translates into superior overall cosmesis and reduces the risk of skin telangiectasia. These results are practice changing and should encourage centers still using two-dimensional RT to implement simple breast IMRT.
PREDICT (http://www.predict.nhs.uk) is a prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early breast cancer (EBC). The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of KI67 status in a ...new version (v3), and compare performance with the Predict model that includes HER2 status (v2).
The validation study was based on 1,726 patients with EBC treated in Nottingham between 1989 and 1998. KI67 positivity for PREDICT is defined as >10% of tumour cells staining positive. ROC curves were constructed for Predict models with (v3) and without (v2) KI67 input. Comparison was made using the method of DeLong.
In 1274 ER+ patients the predicted number of events at 10 years increased from 196 for v2 to 204 for v3 compared to 221 observed. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) improved from 0.7611 to 0.7676 (p=0.005) in ER+ patients and from 0.7546 to 0.7595 (p=0.0008) in all 1726 patients (ER+ and ER-).
Addition of KI67 to PREDICT has led to a statistically significant improvement in the model performance for ER+ patients and will aid clinical decision making in these patients. Further studies should determine whether other markers including gene expression profiling provide additional prognostic information to that provided by PREDICT.
This single-center randomized trial was designed to investigate whether intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) reduces late toxicity in patients with early-stage breast cancer.
The standard ...tangential plans of 1,145 nonselected patients were analyzed. The patients with inhomogeneous plans were randomized to a simple method of forward-planned IMRT or standard radiotherapy (RT). The primary endpoint was serial photographic assessment of breast shrinkage.
At 2 years, no significant difference was found in the development of any photographically assessed breast shrinkage between the patients randomized to the interventional or control group (odds ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.58; p = .41). The patients in the control group were more likely to develop telangiectasia than those in the IMRT group (odds ratio, 1.68; 95% confidence interval 1.13-2.40; p = .009). Poor baseline surgical cosmesis resulted in poor overall cosmesis at 2 years after RT. In patients who had good surgical cosmesis, those randomized to IMRT were less likely to deteriorate to a moderate or poor overall cosmesis than those in the control group (odds ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-1.03, p = .061).
IMRT can lead to a significant reduction in telangiectasia at comparatively early follow-up of only 2 years after RT completion. An important component of breast induration and shrinkage will actually result from the surgery and not from the RT. Surgical cosmesis is an important determinant of overall cosmesis and could partially mask the longer term benefits of IMRT at this early stage.
Abstract Introduction A recent feasibility study (ICG-10) has confirmed high sensitivity of ICG fluorescence mapping for sentinel SLN detection in early breast cancer with 95% of nodes both blue and ...fluorescent. This follow-on study has specifically evaluated a combination of ICG and blue dye for SLN localization. Methods Fifty consecutive patients (49 female; 1 male) with unilateral clinically node negative invasive (37) and non-invasive (13) breast cancer underwent SLN biopsy with blue dye and ICG. Median patient age was 48 years and median invasive tumour size 19 mm for primary surgical patients. All patients had a normal pre-operative axillary ultrasound. Nodal and procedural detection rates were calculated for ICG alone and in combination with blue dye. Results A total of 87 nodes were retrieved with an average nodal count of 1.8 per patient (range 1–4). Eighty four nodes were blue and fluorescent and 3 fluorescent only. Nodal detection rates for ICG alone and combined with blue dye were 100% (87/87) and 96% (84/87) respectively. Metastases were present in 18 nodes (all blue and fluorescent) with 10 patients node positive overall (20%). The procedural detection rate for blue dye and ICG was 96% (48/50) and 2 patients had fluorescent only nodes which were deemed sentinel (4%). Conclusion Fluorescent imaging with ICG is a sensitive, valuable and safe method for SLN biopsy. A combination of blue dye and ICG is useful dual approach when radioisotope is unavailable. ICG has the potential to be a sole tracer agent with improved patient convenience and costs.
PREDICT Breast ( www.breast .predict.nhs.uk ) is a prognostication tool for early invasive breast cancer. The current version was based on cases diagnosed in 1999-2003 and did not incorporate the ...benefits of radiotherapy or the harms associated with therapy. Since then, there has been a substantial improvement in the outcomes for breast cancer cases. The aim of this study was to update PREDICT Breast to ensure that the underlying model is appropriate for contemporary patients. Data from the England National Cancer Registration and Advisory Service for invasive breast cancer cases diagnosed 2000-17 were used for model development and validation. Model development was based on 35,474 cases diagnosed and registered by the Eastern Cancer Registry. A Cox model was used to estimate the prognostic effects of the year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, tumour size, tumour grade and number of positive nodes. Separate models were developed for ER-positive and ER-negative disease. Data on 32,408 cases from the West Midlands Cancer Registry and 100,551 cases from other cancer registries were used for validation. The new model was well-calibrated; predicted breast cancer deaths at 5-, 10- and 15-year were within 10 per cent of the observed validation data. Discrimination was also good: The AUC for 15-year breast cancer survival was 0.809 in the West Midlands data set and 0.846 in the data set for the other registries. The new PREDICT Breast model outperformed the current model and will be implemented in the online tool which should lead to more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients.
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