Abstract
Background
Italy was the first country outside China to experience the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in a significant health burden. This study presents an analysis of the ...excess mortality across the 107 Italian provinces, stratified by sex, age group and period of the outbreak.
Methods
The analysis was performed using a two-stage interrupted time-series design using daily mortality data for the period January 2015–May 2020. In the first stage, we performed province-level quasi-Poisson regression models, with smooth functions to define a baseline risk while accounting for trends and weather conditions and to flexibly estimate the variation in excess risk during the outbreak. Estimates were pooled in the second stage using a mixed-effects multivariate meta-analysis.
Results
In the period 15 February–15 May 2020, we estimated an excess of 47 490 95% empirical confidence intervals (eCIs): 43 984 to 50 362 deaths in Italy, corresponding to an increase of 29.5% (95% eCI: 26.8 to 31.9%) from the expected mortality. The analysis indicates a strong geographical pattern, with the majority of excess deaths occurring in northern regions, where few provinces experienced increases up to 800% during the peak in late March. There were differences by sex, age and area both in the overall impact and in its temporal distribution.
Conclusion
This study offers a detailed picture of excess mortality during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. The strong geographical and temporal patterns can be related to the implementation of lockdown policies and multiple direct and indirect pathways in mortality risk.
Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is one of the major causes of death worldwide, with demonstrated adverse effects from both short-term and long-term exposure. Most of the epidemiological studies ...have been conducted in cities because of the lack of reliable spatiotemporal estimates of particles exposure in nonurban settings. The objective of this study is to estimate daily PM10 (PM < 10 μm), fine (PM < 2.5 μm, PM2.5) and coarse particles (PM between 2.5 and 10 μm, PM2.5–10) at 1-km2 grid for 2013–2015 using a machine learning approach, the Random Forest (RF). Separate RF models were defined to: predict PM2.5 and PM2.5–10 concentrations in monitors where only PM10 data were available (stage 1); impute missing satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data using estimates from atmospheric ensemble models (stage 2); establish a relationship between measured PM and satellite, land use and meteorological parameters (stage 3); predict stage 3 model over each 1-km2 grid cell of Italy (stage 4); and improve stage 3 predictions by using small-scale predictors computed at the monitor locations or within a small buffer (stage 5). Our models were able to capture most of PM variability, with mean cross-validation (CV) R2 of 0.75 and 0.80 (stage 3) and 0.84 and 0.86 (stage 5) for PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. Model fitting was less optimal for PM2.5–10, in summer months and in southern Italy. Finally, predictions were equally good in capturing annual and daily PM variability, therefore they can be used as reliable exposure estimates for investigating long-term and short-term health effects.
•Estimates of fine and coarse particles at fine spatiotemporal scale are lacking in Italy•We applied a multistage random forest model combining PM data with satellite, land-use and meteorology•We imputed missing satellite AOD data using ensemble atmospheric models•We estimated daily PM10, PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 at a 1-km2 grid over Italy for the years 2013-2015•Our model displayed good CV fitting (R2=0.75 for PM10, R2=0.80 for PM2.5, R2=0.64 for PM2.5-10) and negligible bias
The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, ...before and after summer 2003 (1996-2002 and 2004-2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.
Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have ...generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths.
We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days.
The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI eCI, 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively.
Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.
We aimed at investigating the relationship between particulate matter (PM) and daily admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) at national level in Italy.
Daily numbers of cardiovascular ...hospitalizations were collected for all 8084 municipalities of Italy, in the period 2013-2015. A satellite-based spatiotemporal model was used to estimate daily PM10 (inhalable particles) and PM2.5 (fine particles) concentrations at 1-km2 resolution. Multivariate Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the association between daily PM and cardiovascular admissions. Flexible functions were estimated to explore the shape of the associations at low PM concentrations, also in non-urban areas. We analysed 2 154 810 acute hospitalizations for CVDs (25% stroke, 24% ischaemic heart diseases, 22% heart failure, and 5% atrial fibrillation). Relative increases of total cardiovascular admissions, per 10 µg/m3 variation in PM10 and PM2.5 at lag 0-5 (average of last 6 days since admission), were 0.55% (95% confidence intervals: 0.32%, 0.77%) and 0.97% (0.67%, 1.27%), respectively. The corresponding estimates for heart failure were 1.70% (1.28%, 2.13%) and 2.66% (2.09%, 3.23%). We estimated significant effects of PM10 and PM2.5 also on ischaemic heart diseases, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, and ischaemic stroke. Associations were similar between less and more urbanized areas, and persisted even at low concentrations, e.g. below WHO guidelines.
PM was robustly associated with peaks in daily cardiovascular admissions, especially for heart failure, both in large cities and in less urbanized areas of Italy. Current WHO Air Quality Guidelines for PM10 and PM2.5 are not sufficient to protect public health.
We studied the potential synergy between air pollution and meteorology and their impact on mortality in nine European cities with data from 2004 to 2010. We used daily series of Apparent Temperature ...(AT), measurements of particulate matter (PM
), ozone (O₃), and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and total non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. We applied Poisson regression for city-specific analysis and random effects meta-analysis to combine city-specific results, separately for the warm and cold seasons. In the warm season, the percentage increase in all deaths from natural causes per °C increase in AT tended to be greater during high ozone days, although this was only significant for all ages when all causes were considered. On low ozone days, the increase in the total daily number of deaths was 1.84% (95% CI 0.87, 2.82), whilst it was 2.20% (95% CI 1.28, 3.13) in the high ozone days per 1 °C increase in AT. Interaction with PM
was significant for cardiovascular (CVD) causes of death for all ages (2.24% on low PM
days (95% CI 1.01, 3.47) whilst it is 2.63% (95% CI 1.57, 3.71) on high PM
days) and for ages 75+. In days with heat waves, no consistent pattern of interaction was observed. For the cold period, no evidence for synergy was found. In conclusion, some evidence of interactive effects between hot temperature and the levels of ozone and PM
was found, but no consistent synergy could be identified during the cold season.
Air temperature has been the most commonly used exposure metric in assessing relationships between thermal stress and mortality. Lack of the high-quality meteorological station data necessary to ...adequately characterize the thermal environment has been one of the main limitations for the use of more complex thermal indices. Global climate reanalyses may provide an ideal platform to overcome this limitation and define complex heat and cold stress conditions anywhere in the world. In this study, we explored the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) based on ERA5 – the latest global climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) – as a health-related tool. Employing a novel ERA5-based thermal comfort dataset ERA5-HEAT, we investigated the relationships between the UTCI and daily mortality data in 21 cities across 9 European countries. We used distributed lag nonlinear models to assess exposure-response relationships between mortality and thermal conditions in individual cities. We then employed meta-regression models to pool the results for each city into four groups according to climate zone. To evaluate the performance of ERA5-based UTCI, we compared its effects on mortality with those for the station-based UTCI data. In order to assess the additional effect of the UTCI, the performance of ERA5-and station-based air temperature (T) was evaluated. Whilst generally similar heat- and cold-effects were observed for the ERA5-and station-based data in most locations, the important role of wind in the UTCI appeared in the results. The largest difference between any two datasets was found in the Southern European group of cities, where the relative risk of mortality at the 1st percentile of daily mean temperature distribution (1.29 and 1.30 according to the ERA5 vs station data, respectively) considerably exceeded the one for the daily mean UTCI (1.19 vs 1.22). These differences were mainly due to the effect of wind in the cold tail of the UTCI distribution. The comparison of exposure-response relationships between ERA5-and station-based data shows that ERA5-based UTCI may be a useful tool for definition of life-threatening thermal conditions in locations where high-quality station data are not available.
•The suitability of ERA5-based UTCI for health-related studies was demonstrated.•ERA5-based UTCI was evaluated with respect to station-based observations.•ERA5-and station-based air temperature was assessed as a reference thermal metric.•Consistent exposure-response relationships were modelled by ERA5 and station data.•The effect of wind on mortality in cold environments calls for future investigation.
•185,000 Nationwide occupational injuries in construction sector were analyzed;•A significant association of occupational injuries with high temperatures was found;•Occupation injuries among ...construction workers increased during heat waves;•Workers operating with hand-held tools, machine and handling of objects were at risk;•Construction, quarry and industrial sites were the work environments most at risk.
Extreme temperatures have impact on the health and occupational injuries. The construction sector is particularly exposed. This study aims to investigate the association between extreme temperatures and occupation injuries in this sector, getting an insight in the main accidents-related parameters.
Occupational injuries in the construction sector, with characteristic of accidents, were retrieved from Italian compensation data during years 2014–2019. Air temperatures were derived from ERA5-land Copernicus dataset. A region based time-series analysis, in which an over-dispersed Poisson generalized linear regression model, accounting for potential non-linearity of the exposure- response curve and delayed effect, was applied, and followed by a meta-analysis of region-specific estimates to obtain a national estimate. The relative risk (RR) and attributable cases of work-related injuries for an increase in mean temperature above the 75th percentile (hot) and for a decrease below the 25th percentile (cold) were estimated, with effect modifications by different accidents-related parameters.
The study identified 184,936 construction occupational injuries. There was an overall significant effect for high temperatures (relative risk (RR) 1.216 (95% CI: (1.095–1.350))) and a protective one for low temperatures (RR 0.901 (95% CI: 0.843–0.963)). For high temperatures we estimated 3,142 (95% CI: 1,772–4,482) attributable cases during the studied period. RRs from 1.11 to 1.30 were found during heat waves days. Unqualified workers, as well as masons and plumbers, were found to be at risk at high temperatures. Construction, quarry and industrial sites were the risky working environments, as well as specific physical activities like working with hand-held tools, operating with machine and handling of objects. Contact with sharp, pointed, rough, coarse ‘Material Agent’ were the more risky mode of injury in hot conditions.
Prevention policies are needed to reduce the exposure to high temperatures of construction workers. Such policies will become a critical issue considering climate change.
The effects of heat on health have been well documented, while less is known about the effects among agricultural workers. Our aim is to estimate the effects and impacts of heat on occupational ...injuries in the agricultural sector in Italy. Occupational injuries in the agricultural sector from the Italian national workers' compensation authority (INAIL) and daily mean air temperatures from Copernicus ERA5-land for a five-year period (2014-2018) were considered. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to estimate the relative risk and attributable injuries for increases in daily mean air temperatures between the 75th and 99th percentile and during heatwaves. Analyses were stratified by age, professional qualification, and severity of injury. A total of 150,422 agricultural injuries were considered and the overall relative risk of injury for exposure to high temperatures was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.08; 1.18). A higher risk was observed among younger workers (15-34 years) (1.23 95% CI: 1.14; 1.34) and occasional workers (1.25 95% CI: 1.03; 1.52). A total of 2050 heat-attributable injuries were estimated in the study period. Workers engaged in outdoor and labour-intensive activities in the agricultural sector are at greater risk of injury and these results can help target prevention actions for climate change adaptation.
The health effects of acute exposure to temperature extremes are established; those of long-term exposure only recently received attention. We performed a systematic review to assess the associations ...of long-term (>3 months) exposure to higher or lower temperature on total and cardiopulmonary mortality and morbidity, screening 3455 studies and selecting 34. The studies were classified in those observing associations within a population over years with changing annual temperature indices and those comparing areas with a different climate. We also assessed the risk of bias, adapting appropriately an instrument developed by the World Health Organization for air pollution. Studies reported that annual temperature indices for extremes and variability were associated with annual increases in mortality, indicating that effects of temperature extremes cannot be attributed only to short-term mortality displacement. Studies on cardiovascular mortality indicated stronger associations with cold rather than hot temperature, whilst those on respiratory outcomes reported effects of both heat and cold but were few and used diverse health outcomes. Interactions with air pollution were not generally assessed. The few studies investigating effect modification showed stronger effects among the elderly and those socially deprived. Comparisons of health outcome prevalence between areas reported lower blood pressure and a tendency for higher obesity in populations living in warmer climates. Our review indicated interesting associations between long-term exposure to unusual temperature levels in specific areas and differences in health outcomes and cardiovascular risk factors between geographical locations with different climate, but the number of studies by design and health outcome was small. Risk of bias was identified because of the use of crude exposure assessment and inadequate adjustment for confounding. More and better designed studies, including the investigation of effect modifiers, are needed.
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•Higher/lower annual temperature → higher annual total and cause-specific mortality•Increased annual temperature → increased ischemic stroke and respiratory admissions•People living in warmer areas tend to have lower blood pressure and higher obesity.•Higher age and lower SES increase susceptibility.•The evidence base is sparse. More and better designed studies are needed.
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