Cost-benefit analysis can be used to provide guidance for emerging policy priorities in reducing nitrogen (N) pollution. This paper provides a critical and comprehensive assessment of costs and ...benefits of the various flows of N on human health, ecosystems and climate stability in order to identify major options for mitigation. The social cost of impacts of N in the EU27 in 2008 was estimated between €75–485 billion per year. A cost share of around 60% is related to emissions to air. The share of total impacts on human health is about 45% and may reflect the higher willingness to pay for human health than for ecosystems or climate stability. Air pollution by nitrogen also generates social benefits for climate by present cooling effects of N containing aerosol and C-sequestration driven by N deposition, amounting to an estimated net benefit of about €5 billion/yr. The economic benefit of N in primary agricultural production ranges between €20–80 billion/yr and is lower than the annual cost of pollution by agricultural N which is in the range of €35–230 billion/yr. Internalizing these environmental costs would lower the optimum annual N-fertilization rate in Northwestern Europe by about 50 kg/ha. Acknowledging the large uncertainties and conceptual issues of our cost-benefit estimates, the results support the priority for further reduction of NH3 and NO x emissions from transport and agriculture beyond commitments recently agreed in revision of the Gothenburg Protocol.
Little things matterParticulate air pollution 2.5 micrometers or smaller in size (PM2.5) is a major cause of human mortality, and controlling its production is a health policy priority. Nitrogen ...oxides are an important precursor of PM2.5 and have been a focus of pollution control programs. However, Gu et al. now show that abating ammonia emissions is also an important component of PM2.5 reduction, and the societal benefits of abatement greatly outweigh the costs (see the Perspective by Erisman). Reducing ammonia emissions thus would be a cost-effective complement to nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide controls. —HJSFine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with a mass median aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 micrometers) in the atmosphere is associated with severe negative impacts on human health, and the gases sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia are the main PM2.5 precursors. However, their contribution to global health impacts has not yet been analyzed. Here, we show that nitrogen accounted for 39% of global PM2.5 exposure in 2013, increasing from 30% in 1990 with rising reactive nitrogen emissions and successful controls on sulfur dioxide. Nitrogen emissions to air caused an estimated 23.3 million years of life lost in 2013, corresponding to an annual welfare loss of 420 billion United States dollars for premature death. The marginal abatement cost of ammonia emission is only 10% that of nitrogen oxides emission globally, highlighting the priority for ammonia reduction.
Cropland is a main source of global nitrogen pollution
. Mitigating nitrogen pollution from global croplands is a grand challenge because of the nature of non-point-source pollution from millions of ...farms and the constraints to implementing pollution-reduction measures, such as lack of financial resources and limited nitrogen-management knowledge of farmers
. Here we synthesize 1,521 field observations worldwide and identify 11 key measures that can reduce nitrogen losses from croplands to air and water by 30-70%, while increasing crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) by 10-30% and 10-80%, respectively. Overall, adoption of this package of measures on global croplands would allow the production of 17 ± 3 Tg (10
g) more crop nitrogen (20% increase) with 22 ± 4 Tg less nitrogen fertilizer used (21% reduction) and 26 ± 5 Tg less nitrogen pollution (32% reduction) to the environment for the considered base year of 2015. These changes could gain a global societal benefit of 476 ± 123 billion US dollars (USD) for food supply, human health, ecosystems and climate, with net mitigation costs of only 19 ± 5 billion USD, of which 15 ± 4 billion USD fertilizer saving offsets 44% of the gross mitigation cost. To mitigate nitrogen pollution from croplands in the future, innovative policies such as a nitrogen credit system (NCS) could be implemented to select, incentivize and, where necessary, subsidize the adoption of these measures.
Abstract
Mitigating agricultural ammonia (NH
3
) emissions in China is urgently needed to avoid further damage to human and ecosystem health. Effective and feasible mitigation strategies hinge on ...integrated knowledge of the mitigation potential of NH
3
emissions and the associated economic costs and societal benefits. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of marginal abatement costs and societal benefits for NH
3
mitigation in China. The technical mitigation potential of agricultural NH
3
emissions is 38–67% (4.0–7.1 Tg N) with implementation costs estimated at US$ 6–11 billion. These costs are much lower than estimates of the overall societal benefits at US$ 18–42 billion. Avoiding unnecessary fertilizer use and protein-rich animal feed could provide 30% of this mitigation potential without additional abatement costs or decreases in agricultural productivity. Optimizing human diets with less animal-derived products offers further potential for NH
3
reduction of 12% by 2050.
Global pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land ...requirements, and nitrogen emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past few decades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970–2005 period. The results show that due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970–2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased by more than a factor of two in the 1970–2005 period (from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency improvements at the level of animal breeds, but also on four additional pillars: (i) use of alternative feed sources not competing with human food, (ii) reduction of the crude protein content in rations, (iii) the proper use of slurries as fertilizers through coupling of crop and livestock production and (iv) moderation of the human pork consumption.
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•IMAGE-Pig model describes the functioning of pig production systems in 26 regions.•Feed demand, feed efficiencies, and excretion are estimated (1970–2050).•Total feed use increased, as past efficiency improvements grew slower than demand.•SSP1 shows a more sustainable path, with reduced meat demand and efficiency gains.•By 2050 feed use and environmental impacts can be strongly reduced or increased.
Most global strategies for future food security focus on sustainable intensification of production of food and involve increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and manure. The external costs of current ...high nitrogen (N) losses from agriculture in the European Union, are 0.3-1.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008. We explore the potential of sustainable extensification for agriculture in the EU and The Netherlands by analysing cases and scenario studies focusing on reducing N inputs and livestock densities. Benefits of extensification are higher local biodiversity and less environmental pollution and therefore less external costs for society. Extensification also has risks such as a reduction of yields and therewith a decrease of the GDP and farm income and a smaller contribution to the global food production, and potentially an i0ncrease of global demand for land. We demonstrate favourable examples of extensification. Reducing the N fertilization rate for winter wheat in Northwest Europe to 25-30% below current N recommendations accounts for the external N cost, but requires action to compensate for a reduction in crop yield by 10-20%. Dutch dairy and pig farmers changing to less intensive production maintain or even improve farm income by price premiums on their products, and or by savings on external inputs. A scenario reducing the Dutch pig and poultry sector by 50%, the dairy sector by 20% and synthetic N fertilizer use by 40% lowers annual N pollution costs by 0.2-2.2 billion euro (40%). This benefit compensates for the loss of GDP in the primary sector but not in the supply and processing chain. A 2030 scenario for the EU27 reducing consumption and production of animal products by 50% (demitarean diet) reduces N pollution by 10% and benefits human health. This diet allows the EU27 to become a food exporter, while reducing land demand outside Europe in 2030 by more than 100 million hectares (2%), which more than compensates increased land demand when changing to organic farming. We conclude that in Europe extensification of agriculture is sustainable when combined with adjusted diets and externalization of environmental costs to food prices.
This paper presents EuropeAgriDB v1.0, a dataset of crop production and nitrogen (N) flows in European cropland 1961-2019. The dataset covers 26 present-day countries, detailing the cropland N ...harvests in 17 crop categories as well as cropland N inputs in synthetic fertilizers, manure, symbiotic fixation, and atmospheric deposition. The study builds on established methods but goes beyond previous research by combining data from FAOSTAT, Eurostat, and a range of national data sources. The result is a detailed, complete, and consistent dataset, intended as a basis for further analyses of past and present agricultural production patterns, as well as construction of scenarios for the future.
Historical trends and levels of nitrogen (N) budgets and emissions to air and water in the European Union and the United States are markedly different. Agro‐environmental policy approaches also ...differ, with emphasis on voluntary or incentive‐based schemes in the United States versus a more regulatory approach in the European Union. This paper explores the implications of these differences for attaining long‐term policy targets for air and water quality. Nutrient surplus problems were more severe in the European Union than in the United States during the 1970s and 1980s. The EU Nitrates and National Emission Ceilings directives contributed to decreases in fertilizer use, N surplus, and ammonia (NH3) emissions, whereas in the United States they stabilized, although NH3 emissions are still increasing. These differences were analyzed using statistical data for 1900–2005 and the global IMAGE model. IMAGE could reproduce NH3 emissions and soil N surpluses at different scales (European Union and United States, country and state) and N loads in the Rhine and Mississippi. The regulation‐driven changes during the past 25 yr in the European Union have reduced public concerns and have brought agricultural N loads to the aquatic environment closer to US levels. Despite differences in agro‐environmental policies and agricultural structure (more N‐fixing soybean and more spatially separated feed and livestock production in the United States than in the European Union), current N use efficiency in US and EU crop production is similar. IMAGE projections for the IAASTD‐baseline scenario indicate that N loading to the environment in 2050 will be similar to current levels. In the United States, environmental N loads will remain substantially smaller than in the European Union, whereas agricultural production in 2050 in the United States will increase by 30% relative to 2005, as compared with an increase of 8% in the European Union. However, in the United States, even rigorous mitigation with maximum recycling of manure N and a 25% reduction in fertilizer use will not achieve the policy target to halve the N export to the Gulf of Mexico.
This paper tests the hypothesis that relocation of pig production within the EU27 can reduce the external costs of nitrogen (N) pollution. The external cost of pollution by ammonia and nitrate from ...agriculture in the European Union (EU27) in 2008 was estimated at 61–215 billion € (0.5 to 1.8% of the GDP). Per capita it ranged from more than 1000 € in north-west EU27 to 50 € in Romania. The average contribution of pig production was 15%. Using provincial data (224 NUTS2 regions in EU27), the potential reduction of external N cost by relocation of pig production was estimated at 14 billion € (10% of the total). Regions most eligible for decreasing the pig stock were in western Germany, Flemish region, Denmark, the Netherlands and Bretagne, while Romania is most eligible for increasing pig production. Relocating 20 million pigs (13% of the total EU stock) decreased average external costs per capita from 900 to 785 € in the 13 NUTS2 regions where pigs were removed and increased from 69 to 107 € in 11 regions receiving pigs. A second alternative configuration of pig production was targeted at reducing exceedance of critical N deposition and closing regional nutrient cycles. This configuration relocates pigs within Germany and France, for example from Bretagne to Northern France and from Weser-Ems to Oberbayern. However, total external cost increases due to an increase of health impacts, unless when combined with implementation of best N management practices. Relocation of the pig industry in the EU27 will meet many socio-economic barriers and realisation requires new policy incentives.
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