Summary Background Incisional hernia is a frequent long-term complication after abdominal surgery, with a prevalence greater than 30% in high-risk groups. The aim of the PRIMA trial was to evaluate ...the effectiveness of mesh reinforcement in high-risk patients, to prevent incisional hernia. Methods We did a multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial at 11 hospitals in Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands. We included patients aged 18 years or older who were undergoing elective midline laparotomy and had either an abdominal aortic aneurysm or a body-mass index (BMI) of 27 kg/m2 or higher. We randomly assigned participants using a computer-generated randomisation sequence to one of three treatment groups: primary suture; onlay mesh reinforcement; or sublay mesh reinforcement. The primary endpoint was incidence of incisional hernia during 2 years of follow-up, analysed by intention to treat. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were estimated by logistic regression. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT00761475. Findings Between March, 2009, and December, 2012, 498 patients were enrolled to the study, of whom 18 were excluded before randomisation. Therefore, we included 480 patients in the primary analysis: 107 were assigned primary suture only, 188 were allocated onlay mesh reinforcement, and 185 were assigned sublay mesh reinforcement. 92 patients were identified with an incisional hernia, 33 (30%) who were allocated primary suture only, 25 (13%) who were assigned onlay mesh reinforcement, and 34 (18%) who were assigned sublay mesh reinforcement (onlay mesh reinforcement vs primary suture, OR 0·37, 95% CI 0·20–0·69; p=0·0016; sublay mesh reinforcement vs primary suture, 0·55, 0·30–1·00; p=0·05). Seromas were more frequent in patients allocated onlay mesh reinforcement (34 of 188) than in those assigned primary suture (five of 107; p=0·002) or sublay mesh reinforcement (13 of 185; p=0·002). The incidence of wound infection did not differ between treatment groups (14 of 107 primary suture; 25 of 188 onlay mesh reinforcement; and 19 of 185 sublay mesh reinforcement). Interpretation A significant reduction in incidence of incisional hernia was achieved with onlay mesh reinforcement compared with sublay mesh reinforcement and primary suture only. Onlay mesh reinforcement has the potential to become the standard treatment for high-risk patients undergoing midline laparotomy. Funding Baxter; B Braun Surgical SA.
Background Liver surgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC) is associated with postoperative mortality ranging from 5% to 18%. The aim of this study was to develop a preoperative risk score for ...postoperative mortality after liver resection for PHC, and to assess the effect of biliary drainage of the future liver remnant (FLR). Study Design A consecutive series of 287 patients submitted to major liver resection for presumed PHC between 1997 and 2014 at 2 Western centers was analyzed; 228 patients (79%) underwent preoperative drainage for jaundice. Future liver remnant volumes were calculated with CT volumetry and completeness of FLR drainage was assessed on imaging. Logistic regression was used to develop a mortality risk score. Results Postoperative mortality at 90 days was 14% and was independently predicted by age (odds ratio OR per 10 years = 2.1), preoperative cholangitis (OR = 4.1), FLR volume <30% (OR = 2.9), portal vein reconstruction (OR = 2.3), and incomplete FLR drainage in patients with FLR volume <50% (OR = 2.8). The risk score showed good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75 after bootstrap validation) and ranking patients in tertiles identified 3 (ie low, intermediate, and high) risk subgroups with predicted mortalities of 2%, 11%, and 37%. No postoperative mortality was observed in 33 undrained patients with FLR volumes >50%, including 10 jaundiced patients (median bilirubin level 11 mg/dL). Conclusions The mortality risk score for patients with resectable PHC can be used for patient counseling and identification of modifiable risk factors, which include FLR volume, FLR drainage status, and preoperative cholangitis. We found no evidence to support preoperative biliary drainage in patients with an FLR volume >50%.
Summary Background Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with aspirin plus a P2Y12 inhibitor prevents ischaemic events after coronary stenting, but increases bleeding. Guidelines support weighting ...bleeding risk before the selection of treatment duration, but no standardised tool exists for this purpose. Methods A total of 14 963 patients treated with DAPT after coronary stenting—largely consisting of aspirin and clopidogrel and without indication to oral anticoagulation—were pooled at a single-patient level from eight multicentre randomised clinical trials with independent adjudication of events. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we identified predictors of out-of-hospital Thrombosis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) major or minor bleeding stratified by trial, and developed a numerical bleeding risk score. The predictive performance of the novel score was assessed in the derivation cohort and validated in patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention from the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial (n=8595) and BernPCI registry (n=6172). The novel score was assessed within patients randomised to different DAPT durations (n=10 081) to identify the effect on bleeding and ischaemia of a long (12–24 months) or short (3–6 months) treatment in relation to baseline bleeding risk. Findings The PRECISE-DAPT score (age, creatinine clearance, haemoglobin, white-blood-cell count, and previous spontaneous bleeding) showed a c-index for out-of-hospital TIMI major or minor bleeding of 0·73 (95% CI 0·61–0·85) in the derivation cohort, and 0·70 (0·65–0·74) in the PLATO trial validation cohort and 0·66 (0·61–0·71) in the BernPCI registry validation cohort. A longer DAPT duration significantly increased bleeding in patients at high risk (score ≥25), but not in those with lower risk profiles (pinteraction =0·007), and exerted a significant ischaemic benefit only in this latter group. Interpretation The PRECISE-DAPT score is a simple five-item risk score, which provides a standardised tool for the prediction of out-of-hospital bleeding during DAPT. In the context of a comprehensive clinical evaluation process, this tool can support clinical decision making for treatment duration. Funding None.
Summary Background The anatomical SYNTAX score is advocated in European and US guidelines as an instrument to help clinicians decide the optimum revascularisation method in patients with complex ...coronary artery disease. The absence of an individualised approach and of clinical variables to guide decision making between coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are limitations of the SYNTAX score. SYNTAX score II aimed to overcome these limitations. Methods SYNTAX score II was developed by applying a Cox proportional hazards model to results of the randomised all comers SYNTAX trial (n=1800). Baseline features with strong associations to 4-year mortality in either the CABG or the PCI settings (interactions), or in both (predictive accuracy), were added to the anatomical SYNTAX score. Comparisons of 4-year mortality predictions between CABG and PCI were made for each patient. Discriminatory performance was quantified by concordance statistics and internally validated with bootstrap resampling. External validation was done in the multinational all comers DELTA registry (n=2891), a heterogeneous population that included patients with three-vessel disease (26%) or complex coronary artery disease (anatomical SYNTAX score ≥33, 30%) who underwent CABG or PCI. The SYNTAX trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT00114972. Findings SYNTAX score II contained eight predictors: anatomical SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), presence of unprotected left main coronary artery (ULMCA) disease, peripheral vascular disease, female sex, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). SYNTAX score II significantly predicted a difference in 4-year mortality between patients undergoing CABG and those undergoing PCI (pinteraction 0·0037). To achieve similar 4-year mortality after CABG or PCI, younger patients, women, and patients with reduced LVEF required lower anatomical SYNTAX scores, whereas older patients, patients with ULMCA disease, and those with COPD, required higher anatomical SYNTAX scores. Presence of diabetes was not important for decision making between CABG and PCI (pinteraction 0·67). SYNTAX score II discriminated well in all patients who underwent CABG or PCI, with concordance indices for internal (SYNTAX trial) validation of 0·725 and for external (DELTA registry) validation of 0·716, which were substantially higher than for the anatomical SYNTAX score alone (concordance indices of 0·567 and 0·612, respectively). A nomogram was constructed that allowed for an accurate individualised prediction of 4-year mortality in patients proposing to undergo CABG or PCI. Interpretation Long-term (4-year) mortality in patients with complex coronary artery disease can be well predicted by a combination of anatomical and clinical factors in SYNTAX score II. SYNTAX score II can better guide decision making between CABG and PCI than the original anatomical SYNTAX score. Funding Boston Scientific Corporation.
Abstract Objective Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal ...validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting We illustrated different analytic methods for validation using a sample of 14,857 patients hospitalized with heart failure at 90 hospitals in two distinct time periods. Bootstrap resampling was used to assess internal validity. Meta-analytic methods were used to assess geographic transportability. Each hospital was used once as a validation sample, with the remaining hospitals used for model derivation. Hospital-specific estimates of discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (calibration intercepts and slopes) were pooled using random effects meta-analysis methods. I2 statistics and prediction interval width quantified geographic transportability. Temporal transportability was assessed using patients from the earlier period for model derivation and patients from the later period for model validation. Results Estimates of reproducibility, pooled hospital-specific performance, and temporal transportability were on average very similar, with c-statistics of 0.75. Between-hospital variation was moderate according to I2 statistics and prediction intervals for c-statistics. Conclusion This study illustrates how performance of prediction models can be assessed in settings with multicenter data at different time periods.
Abstract Background Cigarette smoking is a well-known risk factor for development of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, some studies have suggested a “smoker’s paradox,” meaning neutral or ...favorable outcomes in smokers who have developed CAD, especially myocardial infarction (MI). Objectives The study aimed to examine the association of smoking status with clinical outcomes in the randomized controlled SYNTAX (SYNergy Between PCI With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery) trial at 5-year follow-up. Methods Detailed smoking history was collected at baseline, 6-month, 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year follow-up. The composite endpoints included death/MI/stroke (primary endpoint) plus major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) (combination of death/MI/stroke and target lesion revascularization) according to patient smoking status. The comparison of 5-year clinical outcomes between the groups according to smoking status was performed with Cox regression using smoking status at baseline or smoking as a time-dependent covariate. Results A sizeable proportion (n = 322, 17.9%) of patients had changing smoking status during 5-year follow-up. One in 5 patients with complex CAD was smoking at baseline. However, 60% stopped after revascularization while others continued to smoke. Smokers had worse clinical outcomes due to a higher incidence of recurrent MI in both revascularization arms. Smoking was an independent predictor of the composite endpoint of death/MI/stroke (hazard ratio HR: 1.8; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.3 to 2.5; p = 0.001) and MACCE (HR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.7; p = 0.02). Conclusions Smoking is associated with poor clinical outcomes after revascularization in patients with complex CAD. This places further emphasis on efforts at smoking cessation to improve revascularization benefits. (SYNTAX Study: TAXUS Drug-Eluting Stent Versus Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery for the Treatment of Narrowed Arteries; NCT00114972 )
Abstract Objectives The study sought to validate the SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score II mortality prediction model after percutaneous ...coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting in a large pooled population of patients with multivessel coronary disease (MVD) and/or unprotected left main disease (UPLMD) enrolled in the PRECOMBAT (Bypass Surgery Versus Angioplasty Using Sirolimus-Eluting Stent in Patients With Left Main Coronary Artery Disease) and BEST (Artery Bypass Surgery and Everolimus-Eluting Stent Implantation in the Treatment of Patients with Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease) randomized controlled trials. Background For patients with MVD and/or UPLMD, the choice of the best revascularization strategy remains challenging. Methods Pooled individual patient-level data from PRECOMBAT and BEST were used to assess calibration and discrimination of the SYNTAX score II prediction model for all-cause mortality after PCI and coronary artery bypass grafting at 4-year follow-up. The study population comprised 1,480 patients (600 with UPLMD, 880 with MVD). Results The overall incidence of all-cause mortality was 6.1% after a median follow-up period of 4.9 years. Validation plots showed good model calibration overall and across treatment groups but tended to overestimate all-cause mortality in the highest risk quintiles of patients in the whole population and the PCI arm. The SYNTAX score II showed moderate discrimination ability for the whole population (C index = 0.685) but better for patients receiving PCI than CABG (C index = 0.718 vs. 0.662 in patients with UPLMD, C index = 0.700 vs. 0.661 in those with MVD). Observed all-cause mortality was higher when the treatment received was at variance with that recommended by the model and similar when it was concordant. Conclusions The SYNTAX score II has good calibration but only moderate discrimination ability for long-term mortality prediction in this randomized population. This score provides an important tool to help guide the heart team’s decision-making process regarding the selection of the best revascularization strategy for patients with MVD and/or UPLMD. (Bypass Surgery Versus Angioplasty Using Sirolimus-Eluting Stent in Patients With Left Main Coronary Artery Disease, NCT00422968 ; Bypass Surgery Versus Everolimus-Eluting Stent Implantation for Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease, NCT00997828 )
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