Many modelling groups that contribute to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) have found a larger equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) with their latest model versions compared with ...the values obtained with the earlier versions used in CMIP5. This is also the case for the EC-Earth model. Therefore, in this study, we investigate what developments since the CMIP5 era could have caused the increase in the ECS in this model. Apart from increases in the horizontal and vertical resolution, the EC-Earth model has also substantially changed the representation of aerosols; in particular, it has introduced a more sophisticated description of aerosol indirect effects. After testing the model with some of the recent updates switched off, we find that the ECS increase can be attributed to the more advanced treatment of aerosols, with the largest contribution coming from the effect of aerosols on cloud microphysics (cloud lifetime or second indirect effect). The increase in climate sensitivity is unrelated to model tuning, as all experiments were performed with the same tuning parameters and only the representation of the aerosol effects was changed. These results cannot be generalised to other models, as their CMIP5 and CMIP6 versions may differ with respect to aspects other than the aerosol–cloud interaction, but the results highlight the strong sensitivity of ECS to the details of the aerosol forcing.
Exposure to surface ozone has detrimental impacts on vegetation and crop yields. In this study, we estimate ozone impacts on crop production and subsequent impacts on land use in the 2005–2050 period ...using results of the TM5 atmospheric chemistry and IMAGE integrated assessment model. For the crops represented in IMAGE, we compute relative yield losses based on published exposure-response functions. We examine scenarios with either constant or declining emission factors in a weak climate policy future (radiative forcing target of 6.0 W/m2 at the end of the century), as well as co-benefits of stringent climate policy (targeted at 2.6 W/m2). Without a large decrease in air pollutant emissions, higher ozone concentrations could lead to an increase in crop damage of up to 20% locally in 2050 compared to the situation in which the changes in ozone are not accounted for. This may lead to a 2.5% global increase in crop area, and a regional increase of 8.9% in Asia. Implementation of air pollution policies could limit crop yield losses due to ozone to maximally 10% in 2050 in the most affected regions. Similar effects can be obtained as a result of co-benefits from climate policy (reducing ozone precursor emissions). We also evaluated the impact of the corresponding land-use changes on the carbon cycle. Under the worst-case scenario analysed in this study, future ozone increases are estimated to increase the cumulative net CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2050 by about 3.7 Pg C, which corresponds to about 10% of baseline land use emissions over the same period.
•We estimate ozone impacts on crop yields using high and low air pollution scenarios.•Substantial crop losses can be avoided by air pollution control, especially in Asia.•Climate policies can have co-benefits for crops due to reduced co-emissions.•Reduced ozone damage will also reduce land use and associated carbon emissions.
The aerosol single‐scattering albedo (SSA) over the global ocean is evaluated based on polarimetric measurements by the PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences ...coupled with Observations from a Lidar) satellite. For the first time, global ocean SSA and Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD) from this instrument are shown and evaluated against other observations (the Aerosol Robotic Network, AERONET, and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, OMI). The observational data sets compare reasonably well, with the majority of the colocated points within 0.05 of the AERONET measurements. PARASOL shows that SSA is characterized by high spatial and seasonal variability, also over the open ocean far from the inland emission regions. The near global coverage in the visible spectral range provided by the PARASOL retrievals represents a unique opportunity to evaluate aerosol optical properties simulated by global aerosol models, as performed in the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) framework. The SSA (AAOD) estimated by the AeroCom models is generally higher (smaller) than the SSA (AAOD) retrieved from PARASOL. On the other hand, the mean simulated aerosol optical depth is consistent or slightly underestimated compared with observations. An overestimate of the aerosol scattering, compared to absorption, by the models would suggest that these simulate an overly strong aerosol radiative cooling at top of atmosphere, over most of the ocean surfaces. This implies that aerosols have a potentially stronger direct and semidirect impact within the atmosphere than currently simulated.
Key Points
First global ocean comparison of PARASOL SSA with observations and models
PARASOL observes stronger aerosol absorption than models, larger in the tropics
Direct aerosol radiative effect at TOA is overestimated by models
This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on ...simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.
This paper presents an analysis of the mineral dust aerosol modelled by five Earth system models (ESMs) within the project entitled Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, ...kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach (CRESCENDO). We quantify the global dust cycle described by each model in terms of global emissions, together with dry and wet deposition, reporting large differences in the ratio of dry over wet deposition across the models not directly correlated with the range of particle sizes emitted. The multi-model mean dust emissions with five ESMs is 2836 Tg yr−1 but with a large uncertainty due mainly to the difference in the maximum dust particle size emitted. The multi-model mean of the subset of four ESMs without particle diameters larger than 10 µ m is 1664 (σ=651) Tg yr−1. Total dust emissions in the simulations with identical nudged winds from reanalysis give us better consistency between models; i.e. the multi-model mean global emissions with three ESMs are 1613 (σ=278) Tg yr−1, but 1834 (σ=666) Tg yr−1 without nudged winds and the same models. Significant discrepancies in the globally averaged dust mass extinction efficiency explain why even models with relatively similar global dust load budgets can display strong differences in dust optical depth. The comparison against observations has been done in terms of dust optical depths based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite products, showing global consistency in terms of preferential dust sources and transport across the Atlantic. The global localisation of source regions is consistent with MODIS, but we found regional and seasonal differences between models and observations when we quantified the cross-correlation of time series over dust-emitting regions. To faithfully compare local emissions between models we introduce a re-gridded normalisation method that can also be compared with satellite products derived from dust event frequencies. Dust total deposition is compared with an instrumental network to assess global and regional differences. We find that models agree with observations within a factor of 10 for data stations distant from dust sources, but the approximations of dust particle size distribution at emission contributed to a misrepresentation of the actual range of deposition values when instruments are close to dust-emitting regions. The observed dust surface concentrations also are reproduced to within a factor of 10. The comparison of total aerosol optical depth with AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) stations where dust is dominant shows large differences between models, although with an increase in the inter-model consistency when the simulations are conducted with nudged winds. The increase in the model ensemble consistency also means better agreement with observations, which we have ascertained for dust total deposition, surface concentrations and optical depths (against both AERONET and MODIS retrievals). We introduce a method to ascertain the contributions per mode consistent with the multi-modal direct radiative effects, which we apply to study the direct radiative effects of a multi-modal representation of the dust particle size distribution that includes the largest particles.
In this study, we investigated the role of climatic variability and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in driving long‐term tree growth in canopy beech trees along a geographic gradient in the montane ...belt of the Italian peninsula, from the Alps to the southern Apennines. We sampled dominant trees at different developmental stages (from young to mature tree cohorts, with tree ages spanning from 35 to 160 years) and used stem analysis to infer historic reconstruction of tree volume and dominant height. Annual growth volume (GV) and height (GH) variability were related to annual variability in model simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition and site‐specific climatic variables, (i.e. mean annual temperature, total annual precipitation, mean growing period temperature, total growing period precipitation, and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index) and atmospheric CO2 concentration, including tree cambial age among growth predictors. Generalized additive models (GAM), linear mixed‐effects models (LMM), and Bayesian regression models (BRM) were independently employed to assess explanatory variables. The main results from our study were as follows: (i) tree age was the main explanatory variable for long‐term growth variability; (ii) GAM, LMM, and BRM results consistently indicated climatic variables and CO2 effects on GV and GH were weak, therefore evidence of recent climatic variability influence on beech annual growth rates was limited in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula; (iii) instead, significant positive nitrogen deposition (Ndep) effects were repeatedly observed in GV and GH; the positive effects of Ndep on canopy height growth rates, which tended to level off at Ndep values greater than approximately 1.0 g m−2 y−1, were interpreted as positive impacts on forest stand above‐ground net productivity at the selected study sites.
We investigated the role of climatic variability and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in driving long‐term – over the last 160 years – trees growth in canopy beech trees along a geographic gradient in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula, from the Alps to the southern Apennines. In this graph we show the results of a Bayesian regression model on the effects of tree age and environment drivers (Y‐axis: Age = tress cambial age; Ca = atmospheric CO2 concentration; T = mean annual temperature; P = total annual precipitation; Ndep = annual rate of nitrogen deposition; SPEI = standardized precipitation‐evapotranspiration index) on stem annual volume growth (Gv, upper panel) and stem annual height growth (GH, lower panel). Positive and negative valued indicate positive and negative effects, respectively. Bars represent the 95% confidence interval, if overlapping the zero dotted line slopes were not significant.
Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality-so ...called 'win-win' mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of −0.15 K by mid-century and −0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality.
The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 injected a large amount of SO2 into the stratosphere, which formed sulfate aerosols. Increased scattering and absorption of UV radiation by the enhanced ...stratospheric SO2 and aerosols decreased the amount of UV radiation reaching the troposphere, causing changes in tropospheric photochemistry. These changes affected the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and the removal rate of CH4 in the years following the eruption. We use the three‐dimensional chemistry transport model TM5 coupled to the aerosol microphysics module M7 to simulate the evolution of SO2 and sulfate aerosols from the Pinatubo eruption. Their effect on tropospheric photolysis frequencies and concentrations of OH and CH4 is quantified for the first time. We find that UV attenuation by stratospheric sulfur decreased the photolysis frequencies of both ozone and NO2 by about 2% globally, decreasing global OH concentrations by a similar amount in the first 2 years after the eruption. SO2 absorption mainly affects OH primary production by ozone photolysis, while aerosol scattering also alters OH recycling. The effect of stratospheric sulfur on global OH and CH4 is dominated by the effect of aerosol extinction, while SO2 absorption contributes by 12.5% to the overall effect in the first year after the eruption. The reduction in OH concentrations causes an increase in the CH4 growth rate of 4 and 2 ppb/yr in the first and second years after the eruption, respectively, contributing 11 Tg to the 27 Tg observed CH4 burden change in late 1991 and early 1992.
Key Points
We modeled the effect of Pinatubo sulfur on tropospheric photochemistry
SO2 absorption and aerosol extinction reduce tropospheric UV levels
The tropospheric OH sink of CH4 decreased by 17.8 Tg during June 1991–June 1993
The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) allows estimates of effective radiative forcing (ERF) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6). We analyze the RFMIP ...output, including the new experiments from models that use the same parameterization for anthropogenic aerosols (RFMIP‐SpAer), to characterize and better understand model differences in aerosol ERF. We find little changes in the aerosol ERF for 1970–2014 in the CMIP6 multi‐model mean, which implies greenhouse gases primarily explain the positive trend in the total anthropogenic ERF. Cloud‐mediated effects dominate the present‐day aerosol ERF in most models. The results highlight a regional increase in marine cloudiness due to aerosols, despite suppressed cloud lifetime effects in that RFMIP‐SpAer experiment. Negative cloud‐mediated effects mask positive direct effects in many models, which arise from strong anthropogenic aerosol absorption. The findings suggest opportunities to better constrain simulated ERF by revisiting the optical properties and long‐range transport of aerosols.
Plain Language Summary
Aerosols are particles in the atmosphere with sizes ranging from nanometers to tens of micrometers, which are emitted by natural and anthropogenic processes or formed from gases in the atmosphere. The extent to which anthropogenic aerosols affect the radiation budget of Earth is important to better understand anthropogenic climate changes. Aerosol effects on the radiation budget are simulated by complex Earth system models that informed the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our study addresses why such model experiments show different magnitudes for aerosol radiative effects. The results point to opportunities to further improve models with existing observations of aerosol optical properties and aerosol transport over oceans in addition to the much‐studied aerosol effects on clouds.
Key Points
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) averaged trend in aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) is small for 1970–2014 and weakly positive for 2000–2014
Positive direct aerosol radiative effects in CMIP6 models are associated with strong aerosol absorption
Diverse and often strong cloud‐mediated effects primarily determine the magnitude of aerosol ERF in CMIP6
Future changes in aerosol concentrations will influence the climate system over the coming decades. In this study we evaluate the equilibrium climate response to aerosol reductions in different parts ...of the world in 2050, using the global climate model EC-Earth. The aerosol concentrations are based on a set of scenarios similar to RCP6.0, developed using the IMAGE integrated assessment model and exploring stringent and weaker air pollution control. Reductions in aerosol concentrations lead to an increase in downward surface solar radiation under all-sky conditions in various parts of the world, especially in Asia where the local brightening may reach about 10 Wm⁻². The associated increase in surface temperature may be as high as 0.5 °C. This signal is dominated by the reduced cooling effect of sulphate which in some areas is partially compensated by the decreased warming effect of black carbon. According to our simulations, the mitigation of BC may lead to decreases in mean summer surface temperature of up to 1 °C in central parts of North America and up to 0.3 °C in northern India. Aerosol reductions could significantly affect the climate at high latitudes especially in the winter, where temperature increases of up to 1 °C are simulated. In the Northern Hemisphere, this strong surface temperature response might be related to changes in circulation patterns and precipitation at low latitudes, which can give rise to a wave train and induce changes in weather patterns at high latitudes. Our model does not include a parameterization of aerosol indirect effects so that responses could be stronger in reality. We conclude that different, but plausible, air pollution control policies can have substantial local climate effects and induce remote responses through dynamic teleconnections.
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