Populist Leaders and the Economy Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph
The American economic review,
12/2023, Letnik:
113, Številka:
12
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25 percent of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new long-run ...cross-country database to study the macroeconomic history of populism. We identify 51 populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900 to 2020 and show that the economic cost of populism is high. After 15 years, GDP per capita is 10 percent lower compared to a plausible nonpopulist counterfactual. Economic disintegration, decreasing macroeconomic stability, and the erosion of institutions typically go hand in hand with populist rule. (JEL D72, E23, N10, N40, O43)
Abstract
We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs about risk. ...We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and, therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality.
Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
Seven new scholarly essays present original research that includes rare historical and photographic materials highlighting the significance of Islamic civilization and its vexed legacy in a variety ...of contemporary European countries and challenging the perception of European identity as exclusively Christian. This volume unearths a rich, complex history of relationships between Muslims and Christians in Europe whose value lies in the close and continued connections between them that began so long ago on European soil.
What is the connection between philosophical enquiries and storytelling in contemporary narrative? Is it possible to outline some features of a so-called philosophical fiction in Western literature ...throughout the last two centuries? This book aims to provide a plural answer, hosting extensive essays by seven young researchers coming from different fields (Theory of literature, German, American, Russian and Italian contemporary literature, history and evolution of the essayistic form). A short The volume is addressed to all those with a strong interest in both evolution of philosophical speech and history of the novel and has a strong vocation to promote interdisciplinarity in literary studies.
Die Vorlesung präsentiert im Überblick die Romanischen Literaturen der Welt auf ihrem Weg von den historischen Avantgarden zu Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts bis zu den Literaturen nach der Postmoderne ...zu Beginn unseres Jahrhunderts. Sie erfasst damit einen historischen Zeit-Raum, der etwas mehr als ein gesamtes Jahrhundert einschließt, sowie zugleich eine territorialisierbare Raum-Zeit, welche eine ungeheure Mannigfaltigkeit an literarischen Entwicklungen nicht allein in den romanischen Literaturen Europas, sondern auch weiter Gebiete der außereuropäischen Welt miteinschließt.
Mortality dynamics are subject to jumps that are due to events such as wars and pandemics. Such jumps can have a significant impact on prices of securities that are designed for hedging catastrophic ...mortality risk, and therefore should be taken into account in modeling. Although several single-population mortality models with jump effects have been developed, they are not adequate for modeling trades in which the hedger's population is different from the population associated with the security being traded. In this article, we first develop a two-population mortality model with transitory jump effects, and then we use the proposed model and an economic-pricing framework to examine how mortality jumps may affect the supply and demand of mortality-linked securities.
In the 20th century, cumulative millions of readers received books by mail from clubs like the Book-of-the-Month Club, the Book Society or Bertelsmann Club. This Element offers an introduction to ...book clubs as a distribution channel and cultural phenomenon, and shows that book clubs and book commerce are linked inextricably. It argues that a global perspective is necessary to understand the cultural and economic impact of book clubs in the 20th and into the 21st century. It also explores central reasons for book club membership, condensing them into four succinct categories: convenience, community, concession and, most importantly, curation. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
A life settlement is a financial transaction in which the owner of a life insurance policy sells his or her policy to a third party. We present an overview of the life settlement market, exhibit its ...susceptibility to longevity risk, and discuss it as part of a new asset class of longevity-related securities. We discuss pricing where the investor has updated information concerning the expected life expectancy of the insured as well as perhaps other medical information obtained from a medical underwriter. We show how to incorporate this information into the investor's valuation in a rigorous and statistically justified manner. To incorporate medical information, we apply statistical information theory to adjust an appropriate prespecified standard mortality table so as to obtain a new mortality table that exactly reflects the known medical information. We illustrate using several mortality tables including a new extension of the Lee–Carter model that allows for jumps in mortality and longevity over time. The information theoretically adjusted mortality table has a distribution consistent with the underwriter's projected life expectancy or other medical underwriter information and is as indistinguishable as possible from the prespecified mortality model. An analysis using several different potential standard tables and medical information sets illustrates the robustness and versatility of the method.
Moore's Law and Learning by Doing Jovanovic, Boyan; Rousseau, Peter L.
Review of economic dynamics,
04/2002, Letnik:
5, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We model Moore's law as efficiency of computer producers that rises as a by-product of their experience. We find the following: (1) Because computer prices fall much faster than the prices of ...electricity-driven and diesel-driven capital ever did, growth in the coming decades should be very fast. (2) The obsolescence of firms today occurs faster than before, partly because the physical capital they own becomes obsolete faster. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: O3.
PDF