Between November 20, 1918, and March 12, 1919, the US Public Health Service carried out a vast population-based survey to assess the incidence rate and mortality of the influenza pandemic among 146 ...203 persons in 18 localities across the United States. The survey attempted to retrospectively assess all self-reported or diagnosed cases of influenza since August 1, 1918. It indicated that the cumulative incidence of symptomatic influenza over 6 months had been 29.4% (range = 15% in Louisville, KY, to 53.3% in San Antonio, TX). The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 1.70%, and it ranged from 0.78% in San Antonio to 3.14% in New London, Connecticut. Localities with high cumulative incidence were not necessarily those with high CFR. Overall, assuming the survey missed asymptomatic cases, between August 1, 1918, and February 21, 1919, maybe more than 50% of the population was infected, and about 1% of the infected died. Eight months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States has not yet launched a survey that would provide population-based estimates of incidence and CFRs analogous to those generated by the 1918 US Public Health Service house-to-house canvass survey of influenza.
DISASTERS AND COMMUNITY RESILIENCE RAO, HAYAGREEVA; GREVE, HENRICH R.
Academy of Management journal,
02/2018, Letnik:
61, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Why are some communities resilient in the face of disasters, and why are others unable to recover? We suggest that two mechanisms matter: the framing of the cause of the disaster, and the community ...civic capacity to form diverse non-profits. We propose that disasters that are attributed to other community members weaken cooperation and reduce the formation of new cooperatives that serve the community, unlike disasters attributed to chance or to nature, which strengthen cooperation and increase the creation of cooperatives. We analyze the Spanish Flu, a contagious disease that was attributed to infected individuals, and compare it with spring frost, which damaged crops and was attributed to nature. Our measure of resilience is whether the community members could form retail cooperatives—non-profit community organizations. We find that communities hit by the Spanish Flu during the period 1918–1919 were unable to form new retail cooperatives in the short and long run after the epidemic, but this effect was reduced over time and countered by civic capacity. Implications for research on disasters and institutional legacies are outlined.
The global influenza pandemic that emerged in 1918 has become the event of reference for a broad spectrum of policymakers seeking to learn from the past. This article sheds light on multiple waves of ...excess mortality that occurred in the US state of Michigan at the time with insights into how epidemics might evolve and propagate across space and time. We analyzed original monthly data on all-cause deaths by county for the 83 counties of Michigan and interpreted the results in the context of what is known about the pandemic. Counties in Michigan experienced up to four waves of excess mortality over a span of two years, including a severe one in early 1920. Some counties experienced two waves in late 1918 while others had only one. The 1920 wave propagated across the state in a different manner than the fall and winter 1918 waves. The twin waves in late 1918 were likely related to the timing of the statewide imposition of a three-week social distancing order. Michigan's experience holds sobering lessons for those who wish to understand how immunologically naïve populations encounter novel viral pathogens.
With luck, public health control measures may be able to put the Covid-19 demons back in the jar. If they do not, we face a daunting challenge equal to, or perhaps greater than, that posed by the ...influenza pandemic of a century ago.
Abstract
In commemoration of the centennial of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the American Journal of Epidemiology has convened a collection of 12 articles that further illuminate the epidemiology of ...that pandemic and consider whether we would be more prepared if an equally deadly influenza virus were to emerge again. In the present commentary, we place these 12 articles in the context of a growing body of work on the archeo-epidemiology of past pandemics, the socioeconomic and geographic drivers of influenza mortality and natality impact, and renewed interest in immune imprinting mechanisms and the development of novel influenza vaccines. We also highlight persisting mysteries in the origins and severity of the 1918 pandemic and the need to preserve rapidly decaying information that may provide treasure troves for future generations.
Abstract
Although much progress has been made to uncover age-specific mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in populations around the world, more studies in different populations are ...needed to make sense of the heterogeneous death impact of this pandemic. We assessed the absolute and relative magnitudes of 3 pandemic waves in the city of Madrid, Spain, between 1918 and 1920, on the basis of age-specific all-cause and respiratory excess death rates. Excess death rates were estimated using a Serfling model with a parametric bootstrapping approach to calibrate baseline death levels with quantified uncertainty. Excess all-cause and pneumonia and influenza mortality rates were estimated for different pandemic waves and age groups. The youngest and oldest persons experienced the highest excess mortality rates, and young adults faced the highest standardized mortality risk. Waves differed in strength; the peak standardized mortality risk occurred during the herald wave in spring 1918, but the highest excess rates occurred during the fall and winter of 1918/1919. Little evidence was found to support a “W”-shaped, age-specific excess mortality curve. Acquired immunity may have tempered a protracted fall wave, but recrudescent waves following the initial 2 outbreaks heightened the total pandemic mortality impact.
The 2018-2019 period marks the centennial of the "Spanish" influenza pandemic, which caused at least 50 million deaths worldwide. The unprecedented nature of the pandemic's sudden appearance and high ...fatality rate serve as a stark reminder of the threat influenza poses. Unusual features of the 1918-1919 pandemic, including age-specific mortality and the high frequency of severe pneumonias, are still not fully understood. Sequencing and reconstruction of the 1918 virus has allowed scientists to answer many questions about its origin and pathogenicity, although many questions remain. This Review summarizes key findings and still-to-be answered questions about this deadliest of human events.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused major sanitary crisis worldwide. Half of the world has been placed in quarantine. In France, this large-scale health crisis urgently ...triggered the restructuring and reorganization of health service delivery to support emergency services, medical intensive care units and continuing care units. Health professionals mobilized all their resources to provide emergency aid in a general climate of uncertainty. Concerns about the mental health, psychological adjustment, and recovery of health care workers treating and caring for patients with COVID-19 are now arising. The goal of the present article is to provide up-to-date information on potential mental health risks associated with exposure of health professionals to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Authors performed a narrative review identifying relevant results in the scientific and medical literature considering previous epidemics of 2003 (SARS-CoV-1) and 2009 (H1N1) with the more recent data about the COVID-19 pandemic. We highlighted most relevant data concerning the disease characteristics, the organizational factors and personal factors that may contribute to developing psychological distress and other mental health symptoms.
The disease characteristics of the current COVID-19 pandemic provoked a generalized climate of wariness and uncertainty, particularly among health professionals, due to a range of causes such as the rapid spread of COVID-19, the severity of symptoms it can cause in a segment of infected individuals, the lack of knowledge of the disease, and deaths among health professionals. Stress may also be caused by organizational factors, such as depletion of personal protection equipment, concerns about not being able to provide competent care if deployed to new area, concerns about rapidly changing information, lack of access to up-to-date information and communication, lack of specific drugs, the shortage of ventilators and intensive care unit beds necessary to care for the surge of critically ill patients, and significant change in their daily social and family life. Further risk factors have been identified, including feelings of being inadequately supported, concerns about health of self, fear of taking home infection to family members or others, and not having rapid access to testing through occupational health if needed, being isolated, feelings of uncertainty and social stigmatization, overwhelming workload, or insecure attachment. Additionally, we discussed positive social and organizational factors that contribute to enhance resilience in the face of the pandemic. There is a consensus in all the relevant literature that health care professionals are at an increased risk of high levels of stress, anxiety, depression, burnout, addiction and post-traumatic stress disorder, which could have long-term psychological implications.
In the long run, this tragic health crisis should significantly enhance our understanding of the mental health risk factors among the health care professionals facing the COVID-19 pandemic. Reporting information such as this is essential to plan future prevention strategies. Protecting health care professionals is indeed an important component of public health measures to address large-scale health crisis. Thus, interventions to promote mental well-being in health care professionals exposed to COVID-19 need to be immediately implemented, and to strengthen prevention and response strategies by training health care professionals on mental help and crisis management.
El presente artículo tiene como objetivo estudiar la gripe de 1918-1919 en Segovia, explicando su origen, evolución, mortalidad diferencial, profilaxis y las consecuencias más importantes que se ...derivaron de ella. Con este fin, se ha trabajado con la documentación existente en el Archivo Municipal de Segovia, las partidas de defunción del registro civil, estadística municipal, provincial y nacional, el Boletín Oficial de la Provincia y los principales periódicos segovianos. En primer lugar, nos centramos en la aparición de la epidemia, propagación, llegada a España y las víctimas causadas, atendiendo a su sexo, edad, procedencia, localización, estado civil y profesión. Las medidas preventivas y paliativas se analizan desde varios puntos de vista: organizativas, control de población, transportes, higiene, comercio, personal sanitario y dependencias hospitalarias. En cuanto a las secuelas que dejó en la provincia, se abordan desde dos enfoques: por un lado, el económico, aquéllas relacionadas con la escasez y subida de los precios de primera necesidad, y por otro, las que afectaron al normal desarrollo de la actividad en general.
We study the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on short- and medium-term economic performance in Sweden. The pandemic was one of the severest and deadliest pandemics in human history, but it has ...hitherto received only scant attention in the economic literature--despite representing an unparalleled labour supply shock. In this paper, we exploit seemingly exogenous variation in incidence rates between Swedish regions to estimate the impact of the pandemic. The pandemic led to a significant increase in poorhouse rates. There is also evidence that capital returns were negatively affected by the pandemic. However, contrary to predictions, we find no discernible effect on earnings.
PDF
