Multiple theories addressing firms' reactions to exchange partner misconduct coalesce to depict a trade-off. On the one hand, maintaining commitments to transgressors poses negative spillover risks, ...so theories posit firms are more likely to avoid such risks by ending commitments as negative spillover rises. On the other hand, exchange relationships often create embedded value, so theorizing also posits firms are more likely to avoid risking loss by maintaining commitments as relationships are more embedded. We argue this "maintain or end" choice oversimplifies a complex situation in which there are mixed gambles (i.e., choices offering both positive and negative outcomes). We integrate theorizing on mixed gambles and negative spillover to develop a broader conceptualization of alternative strategies for firms to reconcile these risk trade-offs beyond a binary "maintain or end" reaction, theorizing firms may: (a) increase or decrease commitments to transgressors, (b) hedge against risks by adding new partners while maintaining existing ones, or (c) "boomerang" by restarting exchange after previously ending commitments. Using firms' relationships with politicians accused of misconduct to test our arguments, findings support our theorizing. Collectively, we offer a more complete understanding of firms' reactions to exchange partner misconduct, extending theory and practical knowledge in multiple ways.
Missing Events in Event Studies Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin; Wright, Jonathan H.
The American economic review,
12/2020, Letnik:
110, Številka:
12
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multidimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in ...headline numbers and to latent factors, reflecting other news in the release. Non-headline news, for which there are no expectations surveys, is unobservable to the econometrician but nonetheless elicits a market response. We estimate the model by the Kalman filter, which efficiently combines OLS and heteroskedasticity-based event study estimators in one step. With the inclusion of a single latent surprise factor, essentially all yield curve variance in event windows are explained by news.
Mortality Change among Less Educated Americans Novosad, Paul; Rafkin, Charlie; Asher, Sam
American economic journal. Applied economics,
10/2022, Letnik:
14, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Measurements of mortality change among less educated Americans can be biased because the least educated groups (e.g., dropouts) become smaller and more negatively selected over time. We show that ...mortality changes at constant education percentiles can be bounded with minimal assumptions. Middle-age mortality increases among non-Hispanic Whites from 1992 to 2018 are driven almost entirely by the bottom 10 percent of the education distribution. Drivers of mortality change differ substantially across groups. Deaths of despair explain most of the mortality change among young non-Hispanic Whites, but less among older Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks. Our bounds are applicable in many other contexts. (JEL I12, I26, J15)
This study documents that worker‐level variation in tasks has played a key role in the widening of the German Native‐Foreign Wage Gap. I find idiosyncratic differences account for up to 34 per cent ...of the wage gap. Importantly, natives specialize in high‐paying interactive activities not only between, but also within occupations. In contrast, foreign workers specialize in low‐paying manual activities. This enhanced degree of task specialization accounts for 11 per cent of the gap among high‐wage earners and 25 per cent among low‐wage earner, thus offering new insight into sources for imperfect substitution of native and foreign workers and consequently small migration‐induced wage effects.
Historically, Estonia and Finland shared similar cultural, political, and economic characteristics apart from the almost 50 years of Soviet rule (1944-1991) in Estonia (Raun 1987). During that time, ...Estonia lacked political freedom and became a centrally planned economy. Meanwhile, Finland remained a democracy with a market economy. After Estonia gained independence in 1991, the resemblance of the institutional landscape in the two neighboring countries started to be restored. This article investigates the dynamics of individual economic wellbeing in Estonia and Finland over three periods: (1) 1923-1938, when both countries were similarly situated; (2) 1960-1988, during which Estonia was under Soviet control; and (3) 1992-2018, after Estonian independence. Economic well-being is calculated using the purchasing power of wages in terms of the affordability of a minimal food basket. The results show that, in 1938, the purchasing power of wages in Estonia was 4 percent lower than in Finland; in 1988, it was 42 percent lower; and, by 2018, the gap had fallen to 17 percent. Consequently, as measured by the purchasing power of wages, well-being in Estonia and Finland was similar before the Soviet occupation, widely diverged during Soviet rule, and converged after Estonian independence, with the transition from plan to market.
Die Jahre 2007 und 2008 verliefen für die deutsche Bauwirtschaft insgesamt erfreulich. Insbesondere der Wirtschaftsbau konnte ein ausgeprägtes Wachstum verzeichnen. In der mittel- und langfristigen ...Sicht werden die hohen Wachstumsraten der letzten Jahre (durchschnittlich gut 3% pro Jahr) jedoch bei Weitem nicht erreicht. Die zukünftige Entwicklung wird einen nur moderaten Aufwärtstrend aufweisen. Nach den Berechnungen des ifo Instituts dürfte das durchschnittliche reale Wachstum der Baunachfrage im Verlauf der nächsten zehn Jahre noch knapp 1/2% p.a. betragen. Dabei ist zu berücksichtigen, dass die Bauproduktion 2009, zunächst sogar deutlich, schrumpfen wird. Im Wohnungsbau resultieren schon seit Jahren immer mehr Aktivitäten aus Baumaßnahmen an bereits bestehenden Wohngebäuden. Dieser Trend dürfte auch im Prognosezeitraum anhalten. Nach den Schätzungen dürften 2018 knapp 160 000 Wohnungen in Ein- und Zweifamiliengebäuden und rund 115 000 Wohnungen in Mehrfamiliengebäuden fertiggestellt werden. Dies sind zwar rund 100 000 Einheiten mehr als im vorigen Jahr, aber rund 180 000 weniger als im Durchschnitt der Jahre 1993 bis 2000. Insgesamt wird der Wohnungsbau, vor allem aufgrund weiterhin hoher Modernisierungsaufwendungen kräftiger steigen als die beiden anderen Bausparten. Im Nichtwohnbau wird der öffentliche Bau aufgrund der Konjunkturprogramme zur Stützung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Nachfrage 2009 und 2010 erheblich stimuliert werden – während gleichzeitig die gewerbliche Nachfrage sinkt. Langfristig wird es aber in beiden Bereichen kaum Wachstum geben. Das heißt, die Bauvolumina des Jahres 2018 werden jeweils nur knapp über dem Niveaus des Jahres 2008 liegen.
Long‐term visions serve to focus on essentials for sustained economic and social welfare. We now have to face up to the challenge of globalisation (growing international capital mobility), at a time ...when we are undoing our historic, self‐imposed protectionism. This also creates new opportunities, in particular in the dynamic Asia‐Pacific economies.
There still is a ‘window of opportunity’ before an aging population will become a dominant problem. In the next 25 years, business will have to cope with high real interest rates and major uncertainties that now surround environmental policies.
If we are to take on these challenges in constructive and beneficial ways, we have to develop an institutional order that enables the utilisation of knowledge by enterprising people. This requires a simple, transparent and reliable legal and regulatory framework, which supports competitive market processes, and the defence of openness to international trade and capital flows against particular interest groups.
It seems plausible that the Downunder economy can grow over the next 25 years at about 3.5 per cent per capita if the right institutional conditions are created. If we fail to do so, a growing share of the capital, the skills and the enterprise made Down‐under will move to offshore locations which encourage a better use of knowledge and capital by enterprising people. This would deprive many of economic opportunity. The central challenge therefore is to develop a system of government and labour relations which makes the Downunder economy internationally attractive.
PDF
