Measurement error is ubiquitous in experimental work. It leads to imperfect statistical controls, attenuated estimated effects of elicited behaviors, and biased correlations between characteristics. ...We develop statistical techniques for handling experimental measurement error. These techniques are applied to data from the Caltech Cohort Study, which conducts repeated incentivized surveys of the Caltech student body. We replicate three classic experiments, demonstrating that results change substantially when measurement error is accounted for. Collectively, these results show that failing to properly account for measurement error may cause a field-wide bias leading scholars to identify “new” phenomena.
Collaboration enables the sharing amongst individuals of resources and knowledge required to innovate. In recent years, this phenomenon has increasingly manifested in virtual collaborative spaces ...such as open‐source software communities because of the advancement in the use of online technologies and the heightened need for distance work. However, it is still unclear which underlying mechanisms foster collaboration in these spaces. By using the Linux kernel open‐source software community as a case study, we analyze data from the linux‐pci@vger.kernel.org mailing list to model the influence of proximity on the likelihood of collaboration between individuals. Our dataset is composed of 10,513 message replies to the PCI mailing list posted by its 654 active members in the years 2013 to 2015. Our results show that geographical proximity does not have a direct impact on collaboration, while organizational features defined by institutional and organizational proximity do significantly affect collaboration. Cognitive and social proximity also significantly, and positively, affects collaboration, but these relationships show an inverted u‐shaped form. Our results confirm the need to develop specific theorizing about virtual spaces, as they present unique features when compared to traditional physical environments.
Exploiting admission thresholds to the Bologna day care system, we show using a regression discontinuity (RD) design that one additional day care month at age 0–2 reduces intelligence quotient by ...0.5% (4.7% of a standard deviation) at age 8–14 in a relatively affluent population. The magnitude of this negative effect increases with family income. Similar negative impacts are found for personality traits. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis from psychology that children in day care experience fewer one-to-one interactions with adults, with negative effects in families where such interactions are of higher quality. We embed this hypothesis in a model that lends structure to our RD design.
Rural economies in many developing countries are characterized by a lean season in the months preceding harvest, when farmers have depleted their cash and grain savings from the previous year. To ...identify the impacts of liquidity during the lean season, we offered subsidized loans in randomly selected villages in rural Zambia. Ninety-eight percent of households took up the loan. Loan eligibility led to increases in on-farm labor and agricultural output, driving up wages in local labor markets. Larger effects for poorer households suggest that liquidity constraints contribute to inequality in rural economies.
Improving academic outcomes for economically disadvantaged students has proven challenging, particularly for children at older ages. We present two large-scale randomized controlled trials of a ...high-dosage tutoring program delivered to secondary school students in Chicago. One innovation is to use paraprofessional tutors to hold down cost, thereby increasing scalability. Participating in math tutoring increases math test scores by 0.18 to 0.40 standard deviations, and increases math and nonmath course grades. These effects persist into future years. The data are consistent with increased personalization of instruction as a mechanism. The benefit-cost ratio is comparable to many successful early childhood programs. (JEL H75, I21, I24, I26, I32, J13, J15)
Using a new survey of firm managers, we investigate whether inflation expectations in New Zealand are anchored or not. In spite of 25 years of inflation targeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ...firm managers display little anchoring of such expectations. We document this finding along a number of dimensions. Managers are unaware of the identities of central bankers or of central banks' objectives, and they are generally poorly informed about recent inflation dynamics. Their forecasts of future inflation reflect high levels of uncertainty and are extremely dispersed, and they are volatile along both short-run and long-run horizons. Similar results can be found for the United States using currently available surveys.
Using establishment-level panel data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program, I estimate the effect of minimum wage increases implemented by 10 states in 2014 and 2015. I show ...that minimum wage increases lead to wage spillovers within establishments. I find little evidence that minimum wage increases induce establishments to reorganize their occupational mix. Finally, I find that minimum wage increases propagate up the management hierarchy, leading to increased wages for supervisors. Nonetheless, I find that overall wage inequality decreases within establishments after minimum wage increases.
Abstract
We study how adverse economic shocks influence political outcomes in strong authoritarian regimes, by examining the export slowdown in China during the mid-2010s. We first show that ...prefectures that experienced a more severe export slowdown witnessed a significant increase in incidents of labor strikes, using a shift-share instrumental variables strategy. The prefecture party secretary was subsequently more likely to be replaced by the central government, particularly if the rise in strikes was greater than in other prefectures that saw comparable export slowdowns. These patterns are consistent with a simple framework we develop, where the central government makes strategic use of a turnover decision to induce effort from local officials in preserving social stability, and to screen them for retention. In line with the framework’s predictions, we find a heightened emphasis by local party secretaries—particularly younger officials whose career concerns are stronger—on upholding stability following negative export shocks. This is evident in both words (from textual analysis of official speeches) and deeds (from expenditures on public security and social spending).
We examine the nature of consumer demand for government-controlled online news outlets in Russia, testing whether such demand reflects a preference for progovernment ideological coverage or other ...factors unrelated to outlets’ ideological positions. We detect government-sensitive topics and measure outlets’ news-reporting decisions from news article texts, and we estimate a structural model of demand for news, using detailed browsing data that traces individual-level consumption. The average consumer has a distaste for progovernment ideology but a strong, persistent taste for state-owned outlets, primarily driven by third-party referrals and nonsensitive news content. We discuss implications for online media control and media power.
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