Large continental earthquakes necessarily involve failure of multiple faults or segments. But these same critically-stressed systems sometimes fail in drawn-out sequences of smaller earthquakes over ...days or years instead. These two modes of failure have vastly different implications for seismic hazard and it is not known why fault systems sometimes fail in one mode or the other, or what controls the termination and reinitiation of slip in protracted seismic sequences. A paucity of modern observations of seismic sequences has hampered our understanding to-date, but a series of three Mw>6 earthquakes from August to November 2016 in Central Italy represents a uniquely well-observed example. Here we exploit a wealth of geodetic, seismological and field data to understand the spatio-temporal evolution of the sequence. Our results suggest that intersections between major and subsidiary faults controlled the extent and termination of rupture in each event in the sequence, and that fluid diffusion, channelled along these same fault intersections, may have also determined the timing of rupture reinitiation. This dual control of subsurface structure on the stop-start rupture in seismic sequences may be common; future efforts should focus on investigating its prevalence.
•3 M > 6 earthquakes in Central Italy are a uniquely well-observed seismic sequence.•Pre-existing fault structures controlled the extent of rupture in each event.•Fluid diffusion along these structures may have determined timing of sequence.•Dual control of structure on stop-start rupture in seismic sequences may be common.
We analyse Swarm satellite magnetic field and electron density data one month before and one month after 12 strong earthquakes that have occurred in the first 2.5 years of Swarm satellite mission ...lifetime in the Mediterranean region (magnitude M6.1+) or in the rest of the world (M6.7+). The search for anomalies was limited to the area centred at each earthquake epicentre and bounded by a circle that scales with magnitude according to the Dobrovolsky’s radius. We define the magnetic and electron density anomalies statistically in terms of specific thresholds with respect to the same statistical quantity along the whole residual satellite track (|geomagnetic latitude| ≤ 50°, quiet geomagnetic conditions). Once normalized by the analysed satellite tracks, the anomalies associated to all earthquakes resemble a linear dependence with earthquake magnitude, so supporting the statistical correlation with earthquakes and excluding a relationship by chance.
In order to better understand how the world viewed the US 2016 presidential election, the issues that mattered around the world, and how nations made sense of how their media systems constructed ...presentations of the presidential election, Robert S. Hinck, Skye C. Cooley, and Randolph Kluver examine global news narratives during the campaign and immediately afterwards.
Analyzing 1,578 news stories from 62 sources within three regional media ecologies in China, Russia, and the Middle East, Hinck, Cooley, and Kluver demonstrate how the US election was incorporated into narrative constructions of the global order. They establish that the narratives told about the US election through national and regional media provide insights into how foreign nations construct US democracy, and reflect local understandings regarding the issues, and impacts, of US policy towards those nations.
Avoiding jargon-laden prose, Global Media and Strategic Narratives of Contested Democracy is as accessible as it is wide-ranging. Its empirical detail will expand readers’ understanding of soft power as narrative articulations of foreign nation’s policies, values, and beliefs within localized media systems. Communication/media studies students, as well as political scientists whose studies includes media and global politics, will welcome its publication.
Immediately after a large earthquake, the main question asked by the public and decision-makers is whether it was the mainshock or a foreshock to an even stronger event yet to come. So far, ...scientists can only offer empirical evidence from statistical compilations of past sequences, arguing that normally the aftershock sequence will decay gradually whereas the occurrence of a forthcoming larger event has a probability of a few per cent. Here we analyse the average size distribution of aftershocks of the recent Amatrice-Norcia and Kumamoto earthquake sequences, and we suggest that in many cases it may be possible to discriminate whether an ongoing sequence represents a decaying aftershock sequence or foreshocks to an upcoming large event. We propose a simple traffic light classification to assess in real time the level of concern about a subsequent larger event and test it against 58 sequences, achieving a classification accuracy of 95 per cent.
The Central Italy earthquake sequence nominally began on 24 August 2016 with a M6.1 event on a normal fault that produced devastating effects in the town of Amatrice and several nearby villages and ...hamlets. A major international response was undertaken to record the effects of this disaster, including surface faulting, ground motions, landslides, and damage patterns to structures. This work targeted the development of high-value case histories useful to future research. Subsequent events in October 2016 exacerbated the damage in previously affected areas and caused damage to new areas in the north, particularly the relatively large town of Norcia. Additional reconnaissance after a M6.5 event on 30 October 2016 documented and mapped several large landslide features and increased damage states for structures in villages and hamlets throughout the region. This paper provides an overview of the reconnaissance activities undertaken to document and map these and other effects, and highlights valuable lessons learned regarding faulting and ground motions, engineering effects, and emergency response to this disaster.
The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence started with an M
JMA
6.5 foreshock occurring along the northern part of the Hinagu fault, central Kyushu, Japan, and the M
JMA
7.3 mainshock occurred just 28 h ...after the foreshock. We analyzed the source rupture processes of the foreshock and mainshock by using the kinematic waveform inversion technique on strong motion data. The foreshock was characterized by right-lateral strike-slip occurring on a nearly vertical fault plane along the northern part of the Hinagu fault, and it had two large-slip areas: one near the hypocenter and another at a shallow depth. The rupture of the mainshock started from the deep portion of a northwest-dipping fault plane along the northern part of the Hinagu fault, then continued to transfer to the Futagawa fault. Most of the significant slip occurred on the Futagawa fault, and the shallow portion of the Hinagu fault also had a relatively large slip. The slip amount on the shallowest subfaults along the Futagawa fault was approximately 1–4 m, which is consistent with the emergence of surface breaks associated with this earthquake. Right-lateral strike-slip dominated on the fault segment along the Hinagu fault, but normal-slip components were estimated to make a significant contribution on the fault segment along the Futagawa fault. The large fault-parallel displacements recorded at two near-fault strong motion stations coincided with the spatiotemporal pattern of the fault slip history during the mainshock. The spatial relationship between the rupture areas of the foreshock and mainshock implies a complex fault structure in this region.
We investigate a large geodetic data set of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS measurements to determine the source parameters for the three main shocks of the 2016 Central ...Italy earthquake sequence on 24 August and 26 and 30 October (Mw 6.1, 5.9, and 6.5, respectively). Our preferred model is consistent with the activation of four main coseismic asperities belonging to the SW dipping normal fault system associated with the Mount Gorzano‐Mount Vettore‐Mount Bove alignment. Additional slip, equivalent to a Mw ~ 6.1–6.2 earthquake, on a secondary (1) NE dipping antithetic fault and/or (2) on a WNW dipping low‐angle fault in the hanging wall of the main system is required to better reproduce the complex deformation pattern associated with the greatest seismic event (the Mw 6.5 earthquake). The recognition of ancillary faults involved in the sequence suggests a complex interaction in the activated crustal volume between the main normal faults and the secondary structures and a partitioning of strain release.
Key Points
Coseismic ground deformation of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence measured with InSAR and GPS data
At least four main normal fault segments played an active role in the sequence
Antithetic faults and/or preexisting compressional structures may have been reactivated during the sequence with extensional kinematics
We constructed the rupture process model for the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake from broadband teleseismic body waveforms (P-waves) by using a novel waveform inversion method that takes into ...account the uncertainty of Green’s function. The estimated source parameters are: seismic moment = 5.1 × 10
19
Nm (Mw = 7.1), fault length = 40 km, and fault width = 15 km. The mainshock rupture mainly propagated northeastward from the epicenter, for about 30 km, along an active strike-slip fault. The rupture propagation of the mainshock decelerated and terminated near the southwest side of the Aso volcano; the aftershock activity was low around the northeastern edge of the major slip area. Our results suggest that the rupture process of the mainshock and the distribution of aftershocks were influenced by the high-temperature area around the magma chamber of Mt. Aso.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are required to report earthquake locations and magnitudes as quickly as possible before the damaging S wave arrival to mitigate seismic hazards. Deep learning ...techniques provide potential for extracting earthquake source information from full seismic waveforms instead of seismic phase picks. We developed a novel deep learning EEW system that utilizes fully convolutional networks to simultaneously detect earthquakes and estimate their source parameters from continuous seismic waveform streams. The system determines earthquake location and magnitude as soon as very few stations receive earthquake signals and evolutionarily improves the solutions by receiving continuous data. We apply the system to the 2016 M 6.0 Central Apennines, Italy Earthquake and its first‐week aftershocks. Earthquake locations and magnitudes can be reliably determined as early as 4 s after the earliest P phase, with mean error ranges of 8.5–4.7 km and 0.33–0.27, respectively.
Plain Language Summary
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems detect hazardous earthquakes, estimate their source parameters, and transmit warnings to the public. Conventional EEW algorithms depend on picking and analyzing the first seismic compressional wave (i.e., P wave). Seismic waveforms contain more information and can potentially be used to estimate earthquake source parameters with the fewest possible number of stations and to promptly transmit warning information. Deep learning techniques provide opportunities for extracting and exploiting the features behind seismic waveforms. In this study, we develop a fully automatic real‐time EEW system by directly mapping seismic waveform data to earthquake source parameters using deep learning techniques. We apply this system to the 2016 M 6.0 Central Apennines, Italy Earthquake and its first‐week aftershocks. Our results show EEW can be reliably issued as early as 4 s after the earliest P arrival.
Key Points
A fully convolutional network is designed for real‐time earthquake detection, location, and magnitude estimation
Earthquake locations and magnitudes can be determined as early as a few seconds of earthquake signals received at very few stations
The system evolutionarily improves and updates earthquake source parameters by receiving continuous data
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