This paper presents a micro-study of a small rural community of German inhabitants on the early modern estate of Česká Kamenice in the border area of north Bohemia. The aim of the study is to detail ...selected demographic, social and economic aspects of the life of the early modern rural inhabitants. The micro-study focuses on the institution of servitude, the circumstances of entering into marriage, transfer of ownership rights of serf property and forms of familial cohabitation. The findings are viewed through the prism of European marriage-patterns theory, proto-industrialisation theory and ecotype theory.
В статье рассмотрена методология осуществления профилактической работы должностными лицами органов исполнительной власти субъектов Российской Федерации, местного самоуправления, организациями, ...гражданами в жилом секторе. Представлена система исходных данных для разработки комплекса профилактических мероприятий в жилом секторе с учетом социально-демографического развития субъектов Российской Федерации. По итогам исследований, проведенных в рамках научно-исследовательской работы, сформирован перечень профилактических мероприятий на объектах жилого сектора, а также исчерпывающий перечень требований к осуществлению профилактической работы в жилом секторе и представлена методика профилактической работы в жилом секторе.
The article considers the methodology of preventive activities performed by officials of Executive authorities of the subjects of the Russian Federation, as well as local government, organizations, and citizens in the residential sector. There is presented the system of initial data for development of a set of preventive measures in the residential sector, considering the socio-demographic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The list of preventive measures at residential facilities as well as an exhaustive list of requirements for implementation of preventive activities in the residential sector were developed following the results of scientific investigations in the context of research work. The procedure of preventive activities in the residential sector is presented.
Austria’s water utilities are facing new challenges due to advancing climate change. In recent years, changes in water demand have been observed. Water demand forecast models are required to assess ...these changes and react to them in a sustainable way. In this study, an existing modeling approach was extended with new climate indices. The multiple linear regression model was applied to different study sites. The model was trained with a training dataset and validated with a test dataset. The performance of the model was assessed using common parameters, such as the mean absolute percentage error. In a further step, the modeling approach was applied to climate projections to estimate the change in water demand for three different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The change in water demand due to population growth was then considered and combined with the change due to climate change. RCP2.6 shows an average 14% increase in water demand for the period 2051–2070, with climate change (average increase of 0.7%) playing a negligible role. For RCP4.5, an increase of 16% is predicted, while the highest increase of 19% is observed in RCP8.5. Population growth is responsible for most of the increase.
Objective of the study: to assess the main indicators of the reproductive potential of women in Ukraine in dynamics over the period 2000-2018.Materials and methods. Analysis was performed using the ...data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the State Institution “Center for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine” for the period 2000–2018. The methods of a systematic approach, structural-logical, epidemiological analysis were used.Results. Reproductive process dynamic in Ukraine in the XXI century had nonlinear character – increase in the general fertility rate from 7.7 per 1000 population in 2000 to 11.4 in 2012 and the total fertility rate from 1.11 to 1.6, respectively with further deterioration trend – 8.7 and 1.3 in 2018, respectively. Low rates of population reproduction in Ukraine in the XXI century were kept on the background of insufficient resources to ensure the reproduction of the country's population – decrease of the number of women of childbearing age from 12,582.7 thousand in 2000 to 9,998.6 thousand in 2018 with adverse changes in the age profile towards older age groups, high level incidence of reproductive system in women.In 2000–2018 years there is a high level with a negative trend in the prevalence of menstrual disorders (increase by 38.5%), cervical inflammatory diseases (increase by 82.5%), malignant neoplasms of uterine body (increase by 39,9%), mammary glands (increase by 11.99%), cervix (increase by 5.06%), high frequency, with a negative trend, in the incidence of diabetes in pregnant (increase by 662.5%), thyroid disease (increase by 17.3%), circulatory system diseases (increase by 34.4%), urogenital system (increase by 8.7%). In the same time it was achieved a reduction of reproductive losses due to forced abortions by 1.75 times, decrease of mortality during first year of life by 1.7 times and feto-infantile losses of 1.4 times. Conclusion. In recent decades, in Ukraine kept unfavorable demographic situation - decrease in population due to extremely high mortality with low birth rates and low life expectancy.
Цель исследования: оценить основные показатели репродуктивного потенциала женщин Украины в динамике за период 2000–2018 годов.Материалы и методы. При проведении анализа были использованы данные Государственной службы статистики Украины и Государственного Учреждения «Центр медицинской статистики МЗ Украины» за период 2000–2018 гг. Применены методы системного подхода, структурно-логического, эпидемиологического анализа.Результаты. Динамика репродуктивного процесса в Украине в XXI веке имела нелинейный характер: рост общего коэффициента рождаемости с 7,7 на 1000 населения в 2000 г. до 11,4 в 2012 г. и суммарного коэффициента рождаемости с 1,11 до 1,6 соответственно и дальнейшая тенденция к ухудшению – 8,7 и 1,3 в 2018 г. соответственно. Низкие показатели воспроизводства населения Украины в XXI веке сохранялись на фоне недостаточных для обеспечения этого ресурсов – уменьшения численности женщин фертильного возраста с 12 582,7 тыс. в 2000 г. до 9998,6 тыс. в 2018 г. при неблагоприятных изменениях возрастного профиля рождаемости в сторону старших возрастных групп, высоком уровне заболеваемости репродуктивной системы женщин.В 2000–2018 гг. при отрицательной тенденции распространенности отмечается высокий уровень нарушений менструаций (прирост на 38,5%), воспалительных заболеваний шейки матки (прирост на 82,5%), злокачественных новообразований тела матки (прирост на 39,9%), молочных желез (прирост на 11,99%), шейки матки (прирост на 5,06%), большая частота при отрицательной тенденции заболеваемости беременных сахарным диабетом (прирост на 662,5%), болезнями щитовидной железы (прирост на 17,3%), системы кровообращения (прирост на 34,4%), мочеполовой системы (прирост на 8,7%). В то же время достигнуто уменьшение репродуктивных потерь за счет вынужденных абортов в 1,75 раза, умерших на первом году жизни – в 1,7 раза, фетоинфантильных потерь – в 1,4раза.Вывод. В Украине в последние десятилетия сохраняется неблагоприятная демографическая ситуация – уменьшение численности населения в результате сверхвысокой смертности при низкой рождаемости и низкой ожидаемой продолжительности жизни.
Мета дослідження: оцінити основні показники репродуктивного потенціалу жінок України в динаміці за період 2000–2018 років.Матеріали та методи. При проведенні аналізу були використані дані Державної служби статистики України та Державної Установи «Центр медичної статистики МОЗ України» за період 2000–2018 рр. Застосовано методи системного підходу, структурно-логічного, епідеміологічного аналізу.Результати. Динаміка репродуктивного процесу в Україні в ХХІ столітті мала нелінійний характер: зростання загального коефіцієнта народжуваності з 7,7 на 1000 наявного населення у 2000 р. до 11,4 у 2012 р. і сумарного коефіцієнта народжуваності з 1,11 до 1,6 відповідно з подальшою тенденцією до погіршення – 8,7 і 1,3 у 2018 р. відповідно. Низькі показники відтворення населення України в ХХІ столітті утримувалися на фоні недостатніх для забезпечення цього ресурсів – зменшення чисельності жінок фертильного віку з 12 582,7 тис. у 2000 р. до 9998,6 тис. у 2018 р. при несприятливих змінах вікового профілю народжуваності в бік старших вікових груп, високому рівні захворюваності репродуктивної системи у жінок.У 2000–2018 рр. відмічається високий рівень при негативній тенденції поширеності розладів менструацій (приріст на 38,5%), запальних хвороб шийки матки (приріст на 82,5%), злоякісних новоутворень тіла матки (приріст на 39,9%), молочних залоз (приріст на 11,99%), шийки матки (приріст на 5,06%), велика частота при негативній тенденції захворюваності вагітних цукровим діабетом (приріст на 662,5%), хворобами щитоподібної залози (приріст на 17,3%), системи кровообігу (приріст на 34,4%), сечостатевої системи (приріст на 8,7%). Водночас досягнуто зменшення репродуктивних втрат за рахунок вимушених абортів у 1,75 разу, померлих на першому році життя – у 1,7 разу, фетоінфантильних втрат – у 1,4 разу.Висновок. В Україні в останні десятиліття зберігається несприятлива демографічна ситуація – зменшення чисельності населення в результаті надвисокої смертності при низькій народжуваності та низькій очікуваній тривалості життя.
After decades of decline, first signs of a central and inner city revitalisation were noticed towards the end of the 1980s in North American metropolitan areas. The repopulation and redevelopment of ...the metropolitan cores – often referred to as “reurbanisation”, “urban renaissance” or “back-to-the-city-movement” – has accelerated since then and is today one of the outstanding characteristics of recent urban development in the US. In Western and Central European urban regions, reurbanisation patterns were detected some years later although starting from a different level, as the inner cities have never faced a process of decay to the extent that was known in North American cities. At present, reurbanisation is intensely debated in urban and regional research. Although the evidence of reurbanisation is hardly questioned any longer, there is considerable uncertainty about how this new pattern of population change can be explained, how long it will last and how it will change the spatial urban structure of metropolitan areas in the long run. In this paper, we comparatively investigate recent trends of urban development in the US and Germany based on both survey and case study methods, with a focus on demographic patterns and housing. Our results suggest that reurbanisation is a universal trend in large metro regions in the Global North, manifesting itself as a significant repopulation and densification of core areas. At the same time, we found considerable divergence in terms of scale, dynamics and sociodemographic composition of reurbanisation patterns in the selected regions of the US and Germany. * This article belongs to a special issue on reurbanisation.
In this article, we explore the demographic future of the world with a focus on scenarios for Russia and Germany. We seek an alternative to the Western standards of scenarios for global demographic ...development. We consider demographic development both in a positive and negative sense. Our analysis rests on such theoretical structures as the general theory of population, the classical theory of demographic transition, the concepts of the ‘second’, ‘third’, and ‘fourth’ demographic transitions, and scenarios for the ‘Eurasian demographic development path’. We employ a range of methods from comparative demography as well as historical analogies, expert evaluations and demographic forecasts. We analyse the patterns of current demographic development in Russia and Germany to explore various demographic scenarios. In the conclusion, we stress the need for Russia and other countries, including Germany, to embark on the ‘Eurasian demographic development path’ in view of the countries’ geographical positions and demographic values, with children being a dominant one. Otherwise, both Germany and Russia may disappear as national states as early as this century. The findings of this study can be used to improve the demographic policies of Russia and Germany.
This study provides a statistical forecast for the development of total elbow arthroplasties (TEAs) in Germany until 2045. The authors used an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), ...Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS), and Poisson model to forecast trends in total elbow arthroplasty based on demographic information and official procedure statistics. They predict a significant increase in total elbow joint replacements, with a higher prevalence among women than men. Comprehensive national data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt) were used to quantify TEA’s total number and incidence rates. Poisson regression, exponential smoothing with Error-Trend-Seasonality, and autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were used to predict developments in the total number of surgeries until 2045. Overall, the number of TEAs is projected to increase continuously from 2021 to 2045. This will result in a total number of 982 (TEAs) in 2045 of mostly elderly patients above 80 years. Notably, female patients will receive TEAs 7.5 times more often than men. This is likely influenced by demographic and societal factors such as an ageing population, changes in healthcare access and utilization, and advancements in medical technology. Our projection emphasises the necessity for continuous improvements in surgical training, implant development, and rehabilitation protocols.
Introduction. The whole world is concerned about the severe socio-economic consequences of the pandemic, the most threatening of which should be considered the death of a large number of people, the ...general economic downturn, inflation reducing living standards, the threat of increasing hunger, the aggravation of humanitarian problems in poorly developed countries due to a reduction in foreign aid, etc. But if the negative economic consequences are compensated over time (many countries of the world, and Russia is one of the first on this list, have already returned to the pre-pandemic level in 2021), then the human losses suffered by many countries are irreplaceable. Doctors talk about the need to combat post-COVID syndrome, which can also worsen the health and quality of life of citizens. As demographic history shows, such events affect the development of the population for quite a long time. States have struggled with the new dangerous infection in different ways. The set of measures to counter COVID-19 in some countries was based on a policy of “zero tolerance”, others limited themselves to the introduction of only some temporary and not very strict prohibitions. The results of the measures taken also differ dramatically: some countries have been pushed back many years in terms of life expectancy, while in others this indicator has increased. The purpose of this article is to study the demographic consequences of the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic for Russia, which will assess the effectiveness of the anti-epidemic measures taken and better prepare for the occurrence of a similar situation in the future.
Materials and Methods. The study was based on data from Rosstat, materials from reputable international organizations, publications of scientists engaged in the study of population problems. The analysis of the demographic situation was carried out on the basis of the systematic approach and specific methods of demographic analysis, content analysis was used to summarize the materials of published scientific research, a tabular method was used to visualize the results.
Results. The study has revealed that in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the life expectancy of the urban population decreased to a greater extent than that of the rural population. The increase in mortality did not affect children, adolescents and young people under 25 years of age. Mortality among women in the Russian Federation has increased to a greater extent than among men, and this is typical for most age groups. Women aged 65‒69 were the most vulnerable to the virus – the increase in mortality in this age group was the largest.
Discussion and Conclusion. In addition to direct demographic losses from COVID-19 (144.7 thousand people in 2020), an increase in mortality from other causes – respiratory diseases, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, as well as digestive diseases and accidental alcohol poisoning, which violated the long-term trend, has been recorded. Indirect demographic losses from COVID-19 in 2020, calculated by estimating the increase in mortality from these causes, amounted to 143.7 thousand people. Migration growth in the Russian Federation in the first year of the pandemic decreased by 2 times, but remained at the level of 2018. Due to the strict restrictions imposed on the movement of the population, the process of urbanization in the country has slowed down, the migration decline of the rural population has decreased. The results of the study can be useful for scientists dealing with demographic development, as well as used to assess the effectiveness of measures taken to combat the spread of coronavirus infection in 2020. Research in this direction should be continued after the publication of data for 2021 and the results of the All-Russian Population Census.
The aim of the paper is a critical sociological analysis of the space of preschool institutions and the design the capacity of the space of preschool institutions, in accordance with the norms ...proposed within the European social model and the Master Plan of Belgrade. In accordance with the model assumptions, the practice of recommended norms is expected to produce transformational potential by initiating a chain of positive changes, starting with the elimination of systemic risks through decommodification of care for preschool children and production of politically correct space of higher use value, through increasing the coverage of the preschool contingent by state primary schools, to a favorable impact on stimulating birth. Paper Subject -use value of preschool institutions in Serbia, and the Belgrade municipalities Zvezdara and Savski Venac. Statistical analysis, preschool institutions spatial capacity analysis, comparative method, critical analysis were the analysis used in this paper. The following indicators were used to measure the use value of preschool institutions space: percentage of children attending preschools in Serbia, percentage of children attending preschools according to the type of preschool ownership, percentage of children attending public preschools, compliance of the available space in public preschools in the municipalities of Zvezdara and Savski Venac with the valid norms. The final section contains a proposal of spatial capacities which are believed to have sufficient transformational potential, for the purposes of initiating the positive chain of changes in the direction of sustainable social and demographic development.
This article analyzes the demographic development of the city Kraljevo after the Second World War. In the focus of the scientific article is the most dynamic period from 1944 to 1955. We also tried ...to analyze urban conditions in order to contribute to the knowledge of the standard of living at that time. By researching the case study of the city of Kraljevo, we tried to contribute to a more detailed understanding of the social circumstances in Serbia after the Second World War. The increase in the population of the Kraljevo in the post-war period was conditioned, first of all, by migrations. Because of its geographical position, and the renewed and newly established industrial facilities, Kraljevo has become a desirable transit station and finally a destination for a large number of migrants. This scientific article deals with the real impact of daily migrations on the relation between the village and the city, and their formation of social physiognomy and urban image of the city. It is widely known that migrations from villages to cities are very characteristic for the time, but Kraljevo belongs to the group of cities where we can clearly see the existence of some other atypical motives. Discrimination and repression were the most important causes of migrants originating in Kosovo and Metohija. Most of these migrants were Serbs. A relatively high level of natural growth was maintained for a long time in Kraljevo. This was, primarly the result of migrant settlement, because most of them were in reproductive age. The process of 'demographic transition', and phenomenon known as baby boom were the direct consequences of an increase in living standards, liberalization, modernization, better quality of health care, etc. Despite the efforts of institutional regulation, the process of urbanization and urban planning was under the influence of mass immigration and the styrian construction of suburban settlements.
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