Population aging will affect the performance of pension funds and financial markets in the former transition economies and require determined policy actions to complete financial market development ...and to promote financial literacy through education.
Poznavanje demografskih pokazatelja i trendova pri analizi, reformi i planiranju svih javnih sustava čija održivost ovisi o dobnom sastavu stanovništva od izričitoga je značaja, stoga je cilj rada, ...zaključno s rezultatima posljednjega popisa stanovništva 2021. godine, utvrditi kretanja relevantnih demografskih pokazatelja i njima uvjetovano stanje hrvatskoga mirovinskog sustava. Analitički su postupci u radu pokazali kako demografski trendovi i pokazatelji Hrvatske već desetljećima uvjetuju neizvjesnu održivost svih javnih sustava zemlje koji ovise o dobnoj strukturi stanovništva, a rezultati popisa 2021. godine potvrdili su sve negativnosti suvremenih demografskih procesa koje su nagoviještali pokazatelji prirodnoga i prostornoga kretanja stanovništva Hrvatske u posljednjem međupopisnom razdoblju. Analizom utvrđeni sve manji obujam priljeva mladih naraštaja u radnu dob i sve veći obujam odljeva stanovništva iz radne dobi upućuju kako je održivost mirovinskoga sustava Hrvatske izrazito upitna. Neodrživost sustava temeljenog na međugeneracijskoj solidarnosti potvrđuje stopa ovisnosti, odnosno omjer broja korisnika mirovina i broja osiguranika, koji je 1980. godine iznosio 1:4,04, dok se 2021. godine smanjio na 1:1,28. Nastavkom negativnih pokazatelja prirodnoga i prostornoga kretanja stanovništva Hrvatske, uz izostanak mjera populacijske politike koje bi dosadašnje trendove usporile i promijenile, starenje stanovništva i u narednim će desetljećima nepovoljno utjecati na stopu ovisnosti, financijsko stanje i održivost mirovinskoga sustava.
Analytical procedures in the paper show that the demographic trends andindicators of the Republic of Croatia have for decades conditioned the uncerta-in sustainability of national systems that depend on the age structure of the po-pulation, and the results of the 2021 census confirmed all the negative aspectsof contemporary demographic processes that were indicated by the natural andspatial trends of the population of the Republic of Croatia in the last intercensalperiod. The unfavorable condition of the Croatian pension system is primarily aconsequence of the demographic aging of the Republic of Croatia which beganin the 1960s, and has significantly intensified in recent decades. The decrea-sing volume of the inflow of the young generation into the working age andthe increasing volume of the outflow of the population from the working agedetermined by the analysis suggest that the sustainability of the pension systemof the Republic of Croatia is extremely questionable. In addition to the demo-graphic aging and age composition of the population of the Republic of Croatia,other relevant demographic indicators that determine the condition of the pen-sion system; such as the aging index, the total fertility rate and life expectancy,are also significantly unfavorable. All the aforementioned indicators caused nu-merous disadvantages in the pension system, most clearly shown by the fallingsystem dependency ratio, from 1:4.04 in 1980 to 1:1.28 in 2021. The ratio ofthe average pension in the average monthly net salary paid is also unfavorable(36.4%), i.e. significantly lower than the optimal replacement ratio of 70%,and increases the risk of poverty in old age. The continuation of unfavorableindicators of the natural and spatial movement, along with the absence of po-pulation policy measures that would alleviate or change the unfavorable trends,the aging of the population in the coming decades will additionally adverselyaffect the system dependency ratio, financial condition and sustainability of thepension system, and the crisis of the pension system of the Republic of Croatia.
This paper studies the impact of the recent weakening of Poland's fully funded defined contribution second pension pillar on (i) the long-term sustainability (the deficit and implicit debt) of the ...full pension system and (ii) the implications for pension benefits (gross replacement rates). Simulation results, based on a stylised version of the Polish pension system, show that, in the baseline scenario, the weakening of the second pillar would permanently lower future pension system debt, chiefly as a result of a cut in replacement rates. But using a combination of pessimistic assumptions including strong population ageing, low real wage growth and an indexation of existing pension benefits on nominal wage growth rather than inflation coupled with bringing in tax expenditures related to the third voluntary pension pillar and an increase in the share of minimum pensioners leads to higher pension system deficits and eventually more public debt at a very long horizon. The simulation results also suggest that if Poland had not transformed its pay-as-you-go first pension pillar into a defined contribution from a defined benefit system, the weakening of the second pillar would deteriorate fiscal sustainability relatively quickly in the baseline scenario. This result suggests that the Hungarian pension reversal would reduce deficit and debt only temporarily, mainly because of Hungary's costly defined benefit first pension pillar: the weakening of the second pillar is tantamount to swapping low current replacement rates (in the defined contribution second pillar) against high future replacement rates in the defined benefit first pension pillar.
중국 농촌 양로보험개혁의 과정과 과제 이성기; Sung Kee Lee; 원식조 ...
중소연구,
02/2013, Letnik:
36, Številka:
4
Journal Article
본고는 중곡 농촌 양로보험의 개혁 과정과 과제를 고찰하는 데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 양로보험 개혁의 배경, 양로보험 개혁의 과정과 내용, 양로보험 개혁의 과제, 대안으로서의 무각출연금 등을 분석하였다. 그 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 중국 농촌 양로보험 개혁은 두 단계로 진행되었는데, 첫 단계인 1980년대 중반 임의가입 양로보험은 정부의 ...방임으로 실패로 끝났으며, 두 번째 단계인2009년 신 양로 보험은 정부의 전폭적인 재정적·행정적 지원에 힘입어 상당히 성공적으로 진행되고 있다. 둘째, 긴 양로보험 개혁의 배경은 사회보장의 도농격차 심화, 한 자녀정책으로 인한 부양의무자 수의 감소, 농촌 청년층의 도시이주(민공), 노인부양 의식의 약화, 농지 감소, 내수 진작 등 다양하다. 셋째, 농촌 양로보험 개혁은 농민의 양로보험료 부담능력의 취약성, 개인계정의 낮은 수익률, 기초연금 액수의 비현실성, 연기금 관리운영에 대한 낮은 신뢰성, 연금시스템의 필요성에 대한 주민의 인식부족 등 상당히 심각한, 개혁의 성공을 위해서는 반드시 극복되어야 할 과제들을 안고 있다. 넷째, 농촌 양로보험의 대안으로 무각출 기초연금이 제시되고 있으나 막대한 재정소유라는 결정적인 약점을 지니고 있으며, 중앙정부와 지방정부의 재정능력과 지역 간 경제적 격차를 감안할 때 무각출 기초연금의 도입은 비현실적이다. 다섯째, 농촌 양로보험 개혁의 현실적인 대안은 개인계정 적립금 투자수익률의 개선과 도시근로자 양로보험을 모델로 한 제도개혁이다. 이를 위해 적립금 운용에 대한 과도한 정부규제의 완화, 연기금 관리운영 전문가의 양성, 양로보험 강제가입의 원칙 관철, 연기금의 전국적 통합 등의 후속조치기 필요하다.
The purpose of this paper is to review the process and the issues of the Chinese rural pension reforms. For the purpose, the background, the process and the contents of the reforms, and the non-contributory pension as an alternative were analysed. The results are as follows; First, the process of the chinese rural pension reforms have two stages. The first reform of 1980s was failed, because it was a voluntary system. But second reform of 2009 is being successfully advanced by the administrative and financial supports of the government. Second, the backgrounds of the reforms are various, such as deepening gap of urban and rural social security, decrease of supportive family members according to the one-child policy, young generation`s movement to cities for the hobs, weakness of filial pity, decease of rural lands, and the necessity of domestic demand. Third, the chinese rural pension reforms have many critical issues which must be overcome for its success. Those are weak economic capacities of the peasants, low interest rates of the individual accounts, low level of the basic pension, distrust of fund administration, and lack of necessity for public pension system. Fourth, the non-contributory pension system is an unrealistic alternative, because it needs huge finance, and it is impossible under the current gap between urban and rural governments. Fifth, increasing the interest rates of individual accounts, and institutional reforms of the rural pension modeling the urban pension are feasible alternatives. For those, deregulation of the strong control on the management of investing the individual accounts, training the professional fund managers, establishing the principle of compulsory coverage, national integration of the rural as well as the urban pension funds are necessary.
The article under the title "ANALYSIS OF THE PENSION SYSTEM OF THE USSR" deals with numerous aspects of development of the pension system of the former USSR. Since the improvement of the Russian ...pension system is presently high on the agenda, the author believes that analyzing the own historical experience in the first line is essential in order to create a sound and efficient pension system in Russia. The study presented in the article aims to execute an in-depth analysis of legislature on the soviet pension system with the view to recreate the architecture of the pension system of the USSR. In addition, the study also reflects on the official statistics for the said period to make a qualified and fundamental conclusion on the efficiency of the soviet pension system. The evolution of the pension system, based on statistical data evidently proves the efficiently of the soviet pension system. It is highly recommended that the positive aspects of the soviet pension system are taken into consideration when reforming the actual pension system of Russian Federation.
The article under the title "ANALYSIS OF THE PENSION SYSTEM OF THE USSR" deals with numerous aspects of development of the pension system of the former USSR. Since the improvement of the Russian ...pension system is presently high on the agenda, the author believes that analyzing the own historical experience in the first line is essential in order to create a sound and efficient pension system in Russia. The study presented in the article aims to execute an in-depth analysis of legislature on the soviet pension system with the view to recreate the architecture of the pension system of the USSR. In addition, the study also reflects on the official statistics for the said period to make a qualified and fundamental conclusion on the efficiency of the soviet pension system. The evolution of the pension system, based on statistical data evidently proves the efficiently of the soviet pension system. It is highly recommended that the positive aspects of the soviet pension system are taken into consideration when reforming the actual pension system of Russian Federation.
This paper proposes an overlapping generation model along the lines of the papers by Fanti and Gori (2008). Its objective is to study the effect of demographic shocks on the level pension ...respectively in the PAYG and funded system within the context of increased life expectancy at long-run.
China entered an aging society in the late 1990s, with the deepening of aging and the emergence of pension problems. China's population pension market is extremely large, but the reality is that ...today's pension burden is mainly borne by families, and the social pension burden and pension security pressure are increasingly heavy. There are still some gaps in the mechanism and system matching with the pension financial policy, and there are cognitive biases at different levels in all sectors of society, which makes the pace of pension financial reform slow down. The financial industry mainly includes banking, trust, insurance and securities. These industries constantly innovate their business in an aging society due to changes in demand, which has led to the constant adjustment and improvement of aging finance. Based on the state space model, this paper analyzes the present situation of Chinese residents' pension, puts forward the concept of pension finance, and systematically demonstrates the necessity of the development of pension finance, so as to improve the pension system and support the development of Chinese residents' pension cause.
Bolivias informal sector is the largest in Latin America, by many definitions and measures. Bolivias high informality rate has been blamed on many factors including the burden of regulation, the ...weakness of public institutions, and the lack of perceived benefits to being formal. The high level of informality has a number of negative implications related to for low productivity, low growth, and low quality of jobs.This book presents fresh ualitative and quantitative analyses to better understand the reasons why firms are informal and the impact of normalization on their profitability, in order to inform policy actions appropriate to the reality of Bolivia.The crucial finding of the analysis is that the impact of tax registration on profitability depends on firm size and the ability to issue tax receipts. The smallest and the largest firms in the sample have lower profits as a result of tax registration because their cost of formalizing exceeds benefits. Firms in the middle range benefit from tax registration in large part due to increasing the customer base by issuing tax receipts.It presents a set of prioritized policy implications for policy makers. In the short term, the priority should be to increase the benefits of formalization through training, access to credit and markets, and business support. The second is to increase information on how to formalize and its benefits. In the medium term, the priority is to simplify formalization, regulatory and taxation procedures and reduce their costs. Increasing even-handed enforcement of taxation and regulation is also important but not a priority for micro and small firms. Measures to boost the productivity of micro and small firms in general will both help overall economic growth, employment, and, formalization.
There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is ...considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.
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