Ha um discurso recorrente nas sociedades ocidentais que denuncia uma crise das instituicoes, incluindo a imprensa e o jornalismo. Parte dessa ideia parece estar apoiada nas pesquisas de opiniao ...publica dos ultimos anos, que apontam para quedas gradativas na confianca na midia. Neste artigo, analisamos 15 pesquisas de medicao da confianca na midia, e a amostra contem estudos dos mais tradicionais institutos da Europa, Estados Unidos e Brasil. O resultado e um panorama dos instrumentos de acompanhamento da confianca, que apresentam lacunas em suas metodologias e limites nas formas de medicao de um elemento tao dinamico e volatil das relacoes humanas. Palavras-chave: pesquisas de opiniao; estudos comparados; crise do jornalismo; credibilidade. There is a recurring discourse in Western societies that denounces a crisis in institutions, including the press and journalism. Part of this idea seems to be supported by public opinion polls in recent years, which point to gradual declines in trust in the media. In this article, we analyzed 15 surveys measuring trust in the media, and the sample contains studies from the most traditional institutes in Europe, the United States and Brazil. The result is an overview of trust monitoring instruments, which present gaps in their methodologies and limits in the ways of measuring such a dynamic and volatile element of human relations. Keywords: opinion polls; comparative studies; journalism crisis; credibility. Hay un discurso recurrente en las sociedades occidentales que denuncia una crisis de las instituciones, incluidas la prensa y el periodismo. Parte de esta idea parece estar respaldada por las encuestas de opinion publica de los ultimos anos, que apuntan a una disminucion gradual de la confianza en los medios. En este articulo analizamos 15 encuestas que miden la confianza en los medios y la muestra contiene estudios de los institutos mas tradicionales de Europa, Estados Unidos y Brasil. El resultado es un panorama de los instrumentos de monitoreo de la confianza, que presentan brechas en sus metodologias y limites en las formas de medir un elemento tan dinamico y volatil de las relaciones humanas. Palabras clave: encuestas de opinion; estudios comparativos; crisis del periodismo; credibilidad.
This meta-analysis integrated 16 nationally representative U.S. public opinion polls on gender stereotypes (N = 30,093 adults), extending from 1946 to 2018, a span of seven decades that brought ...considerable change in gender relations, especially in women's roles. In polls inquiring about communion (e.g., affectionate, emotional), agency (e.g., ambitious, courageous), and competence (e.g., intelligent, creative), respondents indicated whether each trait is more true of women or men, or equally true of both. Women's relative advantage in communion increased over time, but men's relative advantage in agency showed no change. Belief in competence equality increased over time, along with belief in female superiority among those who indicated a sex difference in competence. Contemporary gender stereotypes thus convey substantial female advantage in communion and a smaller male advantage in agency but also gender equality in competence along with some female advantage. Interpretation emphasizes the origins of gender stereotypes in the social roles of women and men.
Ovaj se rad bavi analizom podrske porezu na nekretnine u Hrvatskoj. Tko podrzava taj porez, a tko mu se protivi? Analiza se sluzi anketama Fakulteta politickih znanosti iz 2016. i 2020. godine. Na ...taj se nacin moze usporediti struktura javnoga misljenja prije i poslije velike javne rasprave iz 201 7. godine, koja je rezultirala odgadanjem poreza. Rad se nastavlja na prijasnje analize, koje su pokazale povezanost stranacke identifikacije i podrske porezu na nekretnine. Rad siri te analize novim podacima. Pokazuje se da 2016. godine ta veza i dalje postoji, ali da ona nestaje 2020. godine. Rad ispituje i kakva je priroda ekonomskih stavova samih gradana te postavlja pitanje moze li se nakon rasprave o porezu na nekretnine govoriti o eventualnoj novoj liberalnoj orijentaciji u strukturi javnoga misljenja u Hrvatskoj. Analiza sugerira da u Hrvatskoj i dalje pretezu umjereno lijevi ekonomski stavovi, ali da se nakon burne javne diskusije o porezu na nekretnine dogadaju odredene promjene ekonomskih stavova, u kojima se liberalni i intervencionisticki stavovi medusobno ispreplecu. Kljucne rijeci: porez na nekretnine, javno misljenje, liberalizam, porezi This article analyses public support for a property tax in Croatia. Who supports this tax and who opposes it? The analysis uses public opinion polls conducted by the Faculty of Political Science in 2016 and 2020. This makes it possible to compare the structure of public opinion before and after the large public debate from 201 7 which resulted in a postponement of the tax. The article relies on previous work that showed a link between party identification and support for property taxation and extends this analysis with new data. The article shows that this link still existed in 2016 but that it disappeared in 2020. The article also examines the nature of citizens' economic views and asks if a new liberal orientation arose in the structure of public opinion in Croatia, following the debate on the property tax. The analysis suggests that moderately left-wing opinions still prevail in Croatia, but following the turbulent public discussion of the property tax, new combinations of economic views appear in which liberal and interventionist views intermingle. Keywords: property tax, public opinion, liberalism, taxation
The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings ...in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.
This article aims to present a historical analysis of corruption and its intricacies, in addition to discussing society's perception of corruption based on opinion polls. The methodology was based on ...literature review and analysis of empirical studies. It was found that corruption is an existing phenomenon in society and that, despite being widely reprehensible, initiatives to fight it receive strong resistance, given that its confrontation affects social layers with great political and economic power. The work, then, made it possible to establish that progress in the fight against corruption depends on constant social engagement, which includes everything from the improvement of public policies to effective popular demonstrations. Keywords: Corruption. Criminology. Fighting corruption. Perception of corruption. Este artigo tem o objetivo de apresentar uma analise historica da corrupcao e seus meandros, alem de discorrer sobre a percepcao da corrupcao pela sociedade a partir de pesquisas de opiniao. A metodologia se lastreou na revisao bibliografica e na analise de estudos empiricos. Confirmando a hipotese da pesquisa, constatou-se que a corrupcao e um fenomeno existente na sociedade e que, apesar de amplamente reprovavel, as iniciativas de combate-la recebem forte resistencia, dado que seu enfrentamento afeta camadas sociais com grande poder politico e economico. O trabalho, entao, permitiu estabelecer que o avanco no combate a corrupcao depende de constante engajamento social, o que inclui desde o aperfeicoamento de politicas publicas ate efetivas manifestacoes populares. Palavras-chave: Corrupcao. Criminologia. Combate a corrupcao. Percepcao da corrupcao. SUMARIO: Introducao. 1 O estudo da criminologia na perspectiva da criminalidade do colarinho branco. 2 A percepcao da corrupcao e sua analise empirica. 3 O movimento anticorrupcao e seus reflexos. Conclusao. Referencias.
Abstract Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting ...intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error. Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real‐world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race. The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness. The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion‐poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.
The American National Election Studies (ANES) is the premier social science survey program devoted to voting and elections. Conducted during the presidential election years and midterm Congressional ...elections, the survey is based on interviews with voters and delves into why they make certain choices. In this edited volume, John Aldrich and Kathleen McGraw bring together a group of leading social scientists that developed and tested new measures that might be added to the ANES, with the ultimate goal of extending scholarly understanding of the causes and consequences of electoral outcomes.
Cognitive cascades: How to model Rabb, Nicholas; Cowen, Lenore; de Ruiter, Jan P ...
PloS one,
01/2022, Letnik:
17, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Understanding the spread of false or dangerous beliefs-often called misinformation or disinformation-through a population has never seemed so urgent. Network science researchers have often taken a ...page from epidemiologists, and modeled the spread of false beliefs as similar to how a disease spreads through a social network. However, absent from those disease-inspired models is an internal model of an individual's set of current beliefs, where cognitive science has increasingly documented how the interaction between mental models and incoming messages seems to be crucially important for their adoption or rejection. Some computational social science modelers analyze agent-based models where individuals do have simulated cognition, but they often lack the strengths of network science, namely in empirically-driven network structures. We introduce a cognitive cascade model that combines a network science belief cascade approach with an internal cognitive model of the individual agents as in opinion diffusion models as a public opinion diffusion (POD) model, adding media institutions as agents which begin opinion cascades. We show that the model, even with a very simplistic belief function to capture cognitive effects cited in disinformation study (dissonance and exposure), adds expressive power over existing cascade models. We conduct an analysis of the cognitive cascade model with our simple cognitive function across various graph topologies and institutional messaging patterns. We argue from our results that population-level aggregate outcomes of the model qualitatively match what has been reported in COVID-related public opinion polls, and that the model dynamics lend insights as to how to address the spread of problematic beliefs. The overall model sets up a framework with which social science misinformation researchers and computational opinion diffusion modelers can join forces to understand, and hopefully learn how to best counter, the spread of disinformation and "alternative facts."
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