Understanding the public by analysing the wants, interests and expectations regarding their involvement in archaeology is one of the strategic aims of Europae Archaeologiae Consilium (EAC). Cultural ...heritage has been the topic of several public opinion polls in Poland over the past few years. In 2011 and 2015, the Narodowy Instytut Dziedzictwa (National Institute of Cultural Heritage) carried out two representative surveys. Subsequent polls focusing on more specific issues or groups of respondents were undertaken in 2015, 2017 and 2018. Other data from Poland come from the 2017 Special Eurobarometer survey on cultural heritage. They can be contrasted with archaeology-orientated opinion polls: a Europe-wide survey carried out within the NEARCH project led by Inrap (French National Institute for Preventive Archaeological Research) and several smaller-scale projects, which might be treated as starting points for more representative research.
The scope of these surveys includes: public perception of cultural heritage and archaeology, subjective value of cultural heritage, attitudes towards archaeology, relevance of archaeology for the present (also in terms of the socio-economic potential of archaeological heritage), people's interaction with archaeology and archaeological heritage, sources of information about archaeological heritage etc.
Comparison of these data will serve to establish the relevance of surveys for archaeological heritage management. The author will also examine if the specific nature of archaeological heritage is reflected in the surveys and how the public feels about its most hidden heritage. Based on the results of her analysis, the author will look at the desired scope of a survey aimed at filling the identified gaps and shaped to fit the needs of evidence-based archaeological heritage management.
The article presents the results of an author's study aimed at tracking the practice of research agencies in Bulgaria regarding the observance of professional standards in publishing empirical data ...from “sociological” pre-election surveys during the election campaigns for the National Assembly, President, and European Parliament in the period 2014 – 2021. To achieve the goal of the study, a monitoring tool was prepared and used, answering the question: to what extent is it legal and in accordance with professional standards to present and publish data from sociological (pre-election) surveys during the election campaigns in the period under review. The leading indicators for monitoring are derived from the Electoral Code, the codes of ethics, and statements of ESOMAR, BSA, BAMOR, and ABRO.
In the studies reported here, we conducted longitudinal analyses of preelection polling data to test whether an Ebola outbreak predicted voting intentions preceding the 2014 U.S. federal elections. ...Analyses were conducted on nationwide polls pertaining to 435 House of Representatives elections and on state-specific polls pertaining to 34 Senate elections. Analyses compared voting intentions before and after the initial Ebola outbreak and assessed correlations between Internet search activity for the term "Ebola" and voting intentions. Results revealed that (a) the psychological salience of Ebola was associated with increased intention to vote for Republican candidates and (b) this effect occurred primarily in states characterized by norms favoring Republican Party candidates (the effect did not occur in states with norms favoring Democratic Party candidates). Ancillary analyses addressed several interpretational issues. Overall, these results suggest that disease outbreaks may influence voter behavior in two psychologically distinct ways: increased inclination to vote for politically conservative candidates and increased inclination to conform to popular opinion.
Building upon two political opinion polls, we formally test for structural breaks in the approval rates of major Croatian political parties, the Government, and the general societal direction. ...Departing from the mainstream studies of political sentiment, we find asymmetries between the macroeconomy and incumbent's approval rates. Namely, only major economic turmoil can alter the way citizens evaluate political parties. The found structural breaks are driven by corruption scandals involving high party officials, and by major negative economic shocks, confirming the loss aversion concept. During economic booms, political sentiment exhibits a separate trajectory, independent of the macroeconomy. We also test for threshold effects in the generating process of political sentiment, finding that it reacts significantly only to large unemployment levels. The stated conclusions are in line with the prevailing narrative that the Croatian political landscape is highly polarised, divided over ideological issues and socio-cultural norms, so voters in typical economic circumstances do not evaluate incumbents based on their economic performance, but on their successfulness in representing ideological positions. Keywords: political sentiment, structural breaks, Government approval rate, political opinion poll, economic voting Rad primjenjuje dvije ankete politickoga mišljenja te formalno testira strukturne prekide u podršci glavnim hrvatskim politickim strankama, Vladi i opcem društvenom smjeru. Za razliku od mainstreamskih istraživanja politickoga sentimenta, pronalazimo asimetricne efekte izmedu makroekonomije i percepcije politicara na vlasti. Utvrdeni strukturni prekidi nastaju zbog korupcijskih afera celnih osoba politickih stranaka te zbog velikih negativnih ekonomskih šokova, cime se potvrduje koncept averzije gubitka. Tijekom pozitivnih ekonomskih kretanja, politicki sentiment ima zasebnu putanju, neovisnu o makroekonomiji. Ispitujemo i efekte praga u procesu generiranja politickoga sentimenta te pronalazimo znacajnu reakciju iskljucivo pri visokoj razini nezaposlenosti. Navedeni zakljucci u skladu su s prevladavajucim narativom da je hrvatska politicka scena izrazito polarizirana, podijeljena oko ideoloških pitanja i sociokulturnih normi, pa biraci u uobicajenim ekonomskim okolnostima ne ocjenjuju vladajuce na temelju njihove ekonomske uspješnosti nego na temelju njihove uspješnosti u reprezentiranju ideoloških pozicija. Kljucne rijeci: politicki sentiment, strukturni prekidi, podrška Vladi, ispitivanje politickoga mišljenja, ekonomsko glasanje
There has been a strong recent interest in applying quantum theory (QT) outside physics, including in cognitive science. We analyze the applicability of QT to two basic properties in opinion polling. ...The first property (response replicability) is that, for a large class of questions, a response to a given question is expected to be repeated if the question is posed again, irrespective of whether another question is asked and answered in between. The second property (question order effect) is that the response probabilities frequently depend on the order in which the questions are asked. Whenever these two properties occur together, it poses a problem for QT. The conventional QT with Hermitian operators can handle response replicability, but only in the way incompatible with the question order effect. In the generalization of QT known as theory of positive-operator-valued measures (POVMs), in order to account for response replicability, the POVMs involved must be conventional operators. Although these problems are not unique to QT and also challenge conventional cognitive theories, they stand out as important unresolved problems for the application of QT to cognition. Either some new principles are needed to determine the bounds of applicability of QT to cognition, or quantum formalisms more general than POVMs are needed.
Applying Social Judgment Theory and the Spiral of Silence, we tested the effects of online comments and public opinion polls on the public's’ latitude of acceptance of others' online comments, ...attitude toward a company, and willingness to speak out on Social Media. We conducted two experiments and found that the effects of online comments and public opinion polls interact with individuals' prior attitudes toward a corporation. The latitude of acceptance toward online comments and participants' willingness to speak out online increased as the comments themselves became negative only among people with negative prior attitudes. However, the change was not detected among people with positive prior attitudes. Practical and theoretical implications were further discussed.
•With NPA, reading two-sided comments increased latitude of acceptance.•Those with NPA had a higher latitude of acceptance toward negative comments.•Those with NPA were more willing to speak out when others' comments were negative.•No differences were found among those with positive prior attitudes (PPA).
Resumo: Neste artigo, investiga-se como o estudo da opinião pública é influenciado pelas pesquisas de opinião pública, na medida em que estas funcionam como meios para inquirição da realidade. Com o ...crescente movimento de datificação do mundo, transformações científicas e tecnológicas emergem e impactam o campo de estudos da opinião pública. Têm-se hoje, de um lado, as pesquisas de opinião tradicionais e, do outro lado, as pesquisas possibilitadas pelo advento do Big Data. Para além de um apanhado de protocolos metodológicos, cada um dos modelos abarca em si um significado de “opinião pública’’, remontando ao velho embate epistemológico entre teoria e metodologia presente nesse campo de estudo. Descrevem-se as principais diferenças entre esses dois modelos, para, em seguida, sob o olhar do pragmatismo de Peirce enquanto teoria de significação, analisar a transição pela qual se está passando, nos dias de hoje.
Abstract: In this article, we investigate how the study of public opinion is influenced by public opinion polls as they work as a means of inquiring reality. With the growing movement of datification in the world, scientific and technological transformations emerge and impact the field of public opinion studies. Today, on the one hand, we have traditional opinion polls and, on the other, the researchers made possible by the advent of Big Data. In addition to a collection of methodological protocols, each model encompasses a meaning of “public opinion”, going back to the old epistemological clash between theory and methodology present in this field of study. We will describe the main differences between these two models and then, under the perspective of Peirce’s pragmatism as a theory of meaning, to analyze the transition we are going through today.
El desplome electoral de la democracia cristiana chilena, 1989-2021 Herrera, Mario; Morales Quiroga, Mauricio; Rayo, Gustavo
Perfiles latinoamericanos : revista de la Sede Académica de México de la Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales,
12/2023, Letnik:
31, Številka:
62
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
En este artículo se analiza el deterioro electoral del Partido Demócrata Cristiano (pdc) chileno, que cayó del 26% de los votos en las elecciones inaugurales de la democracia en 1989, al 4.2% en las ...legislativas de 2021. Sugerimos tres factores explicativos. Primero, que si bien la base electoral del pdc siempre fue predominantemente católica, desde mediados de la primera década de los dos mil, los partidos de derecha han competido con dicho partido y con éxito parcial en este núcleo de electores. Segundo, que dicho partido ha sido históricamente de centro, pero desde fines de los noventa ha enfrentado la competencia de los partidos de izquierda por estos votantes. Tercero, que las facciones internas del pdc pasaron de una dinámica cooperativa a una disruptiva, con acelerados cambios de directivas y fuga de militantes. Malos resultados para las elecciones presidenciales de 2017 y 2021, con un 5.9% y un 11.6%, respectivamente.
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