The objective of the present work is the medium, short and very short-term prognosis of load demand (LD) for the small-scale island of Tilos in Greece. For this purpose, Artificial Neural Network ...(ANNs) models were developed to forecast the LD of Tilos for different prediction horizons and time intervals, these covering the cases of 24 h ahead in hourly intervals (medium term prognosis), 2 h ahead in 10-min intervals (short term prognosis) and 10-min ahead in 1-min intervals (very short term prognosis). At the same time, stochastic/persistence autoregressive (AR) models were also developed and compared with the respective ANN models with regards to the LD prediction results obtained.
For the training of the developed ANNs, meteorological data covering the period 2015–2017 were used, which had been recorded in 1-min intervals by two meteorological masts installed on the island Tilos. Furthermore, the biometeorological human thermal comfort-discomfort index, known as the cooling power index (CP), was also estimated and introduced in the training procedure of the forecasting models, while, for the evaluation of both AR and ANN forecasting models, well established statistical evaluation indices were applied.
To this end, results show that in all cases covered, i.e. for both medium and short-term prognoses, the developed ANN forecasting models present a remarkable ability to predict the local LD of the island with high accuracy, enabling in this way the development of advanced energy management tools for both end-users and the system operators.
•The prognosis of load demand at the Island of Tilos, Greece was investigated.•Artificial neural networks were trained to forecast the load demand.•24 h in advance prognosis for three different forecasting steps-resolutions.•The developed prognostic models show a remarkable forecasting ability.
•Islanders are, in principle, supportive of a sustainable energy transition.•Solutions necessitating active acceptance are only supported by 21.6% of islanders.•Personal/demographic factors influence ...attitudes towards island energy transitions.•Three distinct energy-user typologies implicated in island energy transitions.•Green prosumers are typically male, young and concerned about the environment.
Multiple (inter)national networks and research consortia attempt to capitalise on their emerging experience of integrated smart and green energy solutions by contributing towards the sustainable energy transition of non-interconnected island communities. However, past research at an international level suggests that local opposition might undermine otherwise promising transition plans. In order to minimise the problems of technological transfers, it is, thus, imperative to embark on an early-stage exploration of public attitudes towards such innovations. In light, however, of the routine exclusion of social issues in island energy studies, we present timely data from the first-ever questionnaire survey conducted across the islands of the Aegean Sea. In doing so, we uncover the widespread acceptability of green energy solutions developed as part of the internationally acclaimed TILOS (“Technology Innovation for the Local Scale, Optimum Integration of Battery Energy Storage”) Horizon 2020 project. Simultaneously, though, we draw on the outputs of our unique end-user segmentation analyses and argue that only certain islanders are likely to accept the full replication of the TILOS energy model in their communities. Numerous personal/demographic factors influence the likelihood of accepting specific sustainable energy technologies and, subsequently, only a group of individuals who are young, male, knowledgeable and concerned about the environment are expected to support the proposed technological transition. In turn, we argue that these findings should inform future interventions and research with the ultimate aim of supporting efforts to “green” the Aegean archipelago and other non-interconnected islands at an international level.
This article discusses the potential and limits of municipal solidarity with refugees to offer solutions to some of the acute problems caused by the lack of international and intra-European Union ...(EU) solidarity. It focuses on the Greek island of Tilos, which in contrast to the nearby hotspot islands has developed a reception model that safeguards refugees' rights, preserves social cohesion, and contributes to local development. The article shows that spontaneous expressions of municipal solidarity can be gradually transformed into sustained commitment to refugee reception, and highlights the opportunity that municipal solidarity opens up for strengthening refugee protection in the EU.
This article examines the community radio scene in Hungary, focusing on two stations in Budapest: Tilos Radio and EPER Radio. The authors explore the unique characteristics and principles of ...community radio in Hungary through desk research and interviews with key players in the community radio movement conducted in October 2022. They highlight how these two stations, while differing in their specific forms of community broadcasting, share a commonality of being independent and offering an alternative to mainstream and public radio programming. Sustainability was identified as a significant challenge facing community radio stations in Hungary, primarily because of unfriendly media policy promoting voices supporting the government. The article also provides characteristics of the community radio concept and the historical context of community radio in Hungary, noting that this country was the first in Central and Eastern Europe to incorporate the third broadcasting sector into media law.
Variability of energy production is considered to be the main shortcoming in the operation of renewable energy systems. Combination of different Renewable Energy Sources (RES), employment of energy ...storage and application of Demand Side Management (DSM), are all elements used to encounter the problem of RES variability. Exploitation of such elements in an effective manner challenges the development of advanced Energy Management Systems (EMSs), especially in the case of island microgrids with high shares of RES, lacking the flexibility and capacity of centralized electricity systems to facilitate increased RES penetration. In this work, and in the framework of the Horizon 2020 TILOS project, an advanced Forecasting System (FS) has been developed, able to provide reliable predictions of load demand, wind power and solar power production. The specific variables are independently predicted through a set of forecasting models that produce both deterministic and probabilistic results for different time horizons and time resolutions, fully adjustable to the requirements of any given island microgrid. The developed FS has been deployed and tested considering the smart microgrid of Tilos island, in the SE Aegean Sea, with results obtained demonstrating its ability to provide sufficient and accurate forecasts for all studied variables.
Renewable and smart grid technologies play a key role in delivering a sustainable energy future for non-interconnected islands. In this context, societal acceptance of proposed interventions ...manifests itself as a major determinant of planned transitions. With extant scholarship on public acceptability of sustainable energy technologies focusing on local opposition to wind farms, this paper presents timely survey data from the island of Tilos to provide a better understanding of energy-users’ perceptions vis-à-vis novel smart island proposals. Against stultifying narratives highlighting the lack of community acceptance for local interventions, we uncover: a) the widespread acceptance of sustainable and smart energy solutions, and b) the willingness of a large proportion of locals to play their part, as engaged energy prosumers, in a green energy transition. In turn, these findings form the basis for future academic and technical interventions on the island, and inform broader conclusions on public engagement around energy.
In contributing towards the realisation of plans to transform the Aegean into a “green” archipelago, the internationally acclaimed TILOS research consortium seeks to transfer tacit knowledge of smart ...micro-grids beyond the island of Tilos. However, research on public acceptability of sustainable energy technologies suggests that local opposition might undermine such plans. In order to minimize the problems of technological transfers it is, thus, imperative to embark on an early-stage exploration of public attitudes towards proposed interventions. In this paper, we draw on survey data from across the Aegean to uncover the widespread acceptability of green energy solutions. Simultaneously, though, we uncover how broad acceptability does not always translate into actual acceptance of the TILOS energy model, especially with respect to solutions that affect the end-user. In turn, we argue that these findings should inform future interventions with the ultimate aim of securing public support to “green” the Aegean.
Assessment of the electricity generation status for Non-Interconnected Islands (NIIs) of the Aegean Sea region, excluding the electricity systems of Crete and Rhodes, is undertaken in the current ...study. The authors focus on the long-term analysis of thermal power generation characteristics and also on the challenges so far limiting the contribution of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in covering the electricity needs of the specific area. According to the present analysis, due to the existing technical limitations, the annual RES shares in the electricity balance of NIIs of the Aegean Sea have since 2010 stagnated in the range of 15% to 18%. Moreover, the performance of thermal power stations for all 30 NII systems is evaluated on the basis of their utilization factor, associated fuel consumption and electricity production costs. The vast majority of these stations is characterized by low capacity factors in combination with high specific fuel consumption and high operational expenses that in the case of smaller scale island regions could even exceed 600€/MWh. At the same time, the authors discuss on the alternatives and encourage further investigation of novel, intelligent energy solutions, such as the smart microgrid and battery-based hybrid power station that are currently developed on the island of Tilos under the implementation of the TILOS Horizon 2020 program.
A comprehensive understanding of the magmatic system evolution and petrogenetic environment is crucial for the correct interpretation of magmatic zircon age spectra. In the Central Andes, a ...protracted Late Paleozoic period of collisional to post-collisional magmatism was followed by Late Triassic emplacement of post-orogenic plutons and associated mantle precursors. Some of these magma products are crowded with inherited zircons with a large age span at the sample scale (>25 Myr). This work deals with two contrasting inheritance-rich plutons: the peraluminous cordierite-bearing Los Tilos pluton (LTp) and the peralkaline hypersolvus Ferro-edenite/hedenbergite-bearing Monte Grande pluton (MGp). Both plutons were derived from melting of the crust: the peraluminous S-type granite represents derivation from mixed materials, whereas the peralkaline A-type leucogranite embodies nearly eutectic melts enriched in incompatible elements. Rapid cooling of entrained assemblages suggests that segregation and subsequent ascent was rapid, following emplacement-site isobaric cooling at ca. 3.5 and 2 kbar, for LTp and MGp respectively. Most zircons were inherited; their disparate chemistry originates from contrasting sources, unveiling an open-system behavior.
The effects of variations in magma temperature, emplacement pressure, and water content were evaluated in light of zircon entrainment and dissolution potential, within a thermodynamically consistent framework. Relatively dry magmas (<3 H2O wt%) readily preserve inherited zircons whereas similar size intrusions in excess of water most probably dissolve zircons in less than 12 kyr. In this geological context, early zircon armoring and source enrichment is vital to enhance zircon preservation at high temperatures.
We suggest that the large age span observed in zircon samples of both plutons reflects a long-lived source that fed arc-related granites in the Early to Middle Triassic, culminating in the Late Triassic with the final extraction of highly enriched crustal melts, in a post-orogenic context. Dry high-silica (>75 SiO2 wt%) magmatic flare-ups, in extensional settings, fulfill the inheritance requisites presented here. Contrastingly, a broad zircon age span in large calc-alkaline batholiths emplaced at similar depths, reflect not source processes but rather magmatic erosion, crystal armoring and recycling of previous magma batches, and a complex crystallization history, spanning the whole duration of batholith construction.
•Zircon inheritance is recognized in two coeval Late Triassic post-orogenic plutons.•Rapid cooling of entrained assemblages is inferred from mineral chemistry.•The geochemistry of zircons reveals contrasting source materials and enrichment degree.•Thermodynamic models depict the magma's dissolution potential on the P-T space.•In this geological context, zircons are prone to be preserved and inherited from source.
Charkadio Cave, on Tilos Island, is one of the richest Mediterranean fossiliferous sites, preserving remains of the dwarf elephant Palaeoloxodon tiliensis. This species is considered to be the last ...European elephant. Recent advances in the fields of engineering and imaging technology and their applications in palaeontology have allowed the digitization, modelling and 3D printing of skeletal remains of P. tiliensis for the first time. Taphonomical data were combined with appropriate mathematical methods and allometric analyses in order to determine missing bone measurements and estimate correct relative proportions of skeletal elements. Computed Tomography and non-contact digitization via Laser Scanning were used in order to capture the specimens' surface morphology and create 3D models that are adjusted to the correct dimensions derived from the mathematical analyses. The 3D models were then 3D printed with the use of Rapid Prototyping technologies. A research potential of fossil 3D modeling could be its application in morphological comparisons between different taxa. In this study, atlas 3D models of P. tiliensis and Palaeoloxodon antiquus (Falconer and Cautley, 1847) have been combined in a single 3D model that quantifies morphological differences by a color scale, thus minimizing observation error. 3D models and 3D printed replicas facilitate and enhance inter-institutional scientific interaction, minimizing costs and risks related to the transfer of irreplaceable fossil specimens. Finally, a positive outcome related to the above research could be its application in educational activities hosted in institutes such as schools, universities and museums.
PDF
