Almost without exception, everything human beings undertake involves a choice. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the development and application of quantitative statistical methods ...to study choices made by individuals with the purpose of gaining a better understanding both of how choices are made and of forecasting future choice responses. In this primer the authors provide an unintimidating introduction to the main techniques of choice analysis and include detail on themes such as data collection and preparation, model estimation and interpretation and the design of choice experiments. A companion website to the book provides practice data sets and software to estimate the main discrete choice models such as multinomial logit, nested logit and mixed logit. This primer will be an invaluable resource to students as well as of immense value to consultants and professionals, researchers and anyone else interested in choice analysis and modelling.
Abstract Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation dropped markedly early in the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a resurgence with heightened case counts. The “immunity debt” hypothesis ...proposes that the RSV-naїve pediatric population increased during the period of low transmission. However, the evidence supporting this hypothesis is limited, and the role of changing testing practices in the perceived surge has not been comprehensively evaluated. Methods We conducted a multicenter, retrospective analysis of 342 530 RSV encounters and 980 546 RSV diagnostic tests occurring at 32 US pediatric hospitals in 2013–2023. We used interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic-associated changes in RSV patient and test volume and to quantify changes in the proportions of patients requiring hospitalization, intensive care, or mechanical ventilation. We quantified the fraction of the shifts in case counts and in the age of diagnosed patients attributable to changes in testing. Results RSV patient volume increased 2.4-fold (95% confidence interval CI: 1.7, 3.5) in 2021–2023 relative to the pre-pandemic phase and was accompanied by an 18.9-fold increase (95% CI: 15.0, 23.9) in RSV test volume. Shifts in patient volume and in patient age were largely attributable to increased testing. The proportions of patients with RSV that required hospitalization, intensive care, or mechanical ventilation declined significantly across all patient age groups. Conclusions A surge in RSV testing, rather than in viral circulation, likely underlies the increased case counts observed in 2021–2023. These findings warrant a critical assessment of the immunity debt hypothesis and highlight the importance of considering the testing denominator when surveillance strategies are dynamic.
The striatal dopaminergic system has been implicated in reinforcement learning (RL), motor performance, and incentive motivation. Various computational models have been proposed to account for each ...of these effects individually, but a formal analysis of their interactions is lacking. Here we present a novel algorithmic model expanding the classical actor-critic architecture to include fundamental interactive properties of neural circuit models, incorporating both incentive and learning effects into a single theoretical framework. The standard actor is replaced by a dual opponent actor system representing distinct striatal populations, which come to differentially specialize in discriminating positive and negative action values. Dopamine modulates the degree to which each actor component contributes to both learning and choice discriminations. In contrast to standard frameworks, this model simultaneously captures documented effects of dopamine on both learning and choice incentive-and their interactions-across a variety of studies, including probabilistic RL, effort-based choice, and motor skill learning.
Choice Set Size Shapes Self-Expression Cheek, Nathan N.; Schwartz, Barry; Shafir, Eldar
Personality & social psychology bulletin,
02/2023, Letnik:
49, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Across six studies (total N = 3,549), we find that participants who were randomly assigned to choose from larger assortments thought their choices were more self-expressive, an effect that emerged ...regardless of whether larger sets actually enabled participants to better satisfy their preferences. Studies examining the moderating role of choice domain and cultural context show that the effect of choice set size on perceived self-expression may be particular to contexts in which choices have some initial potential to express choosers’ identities. We then test novel predictions from this theoretical perspective, finding that self-expression mediates the effect of choice set size on choice satisfaction, the likelihood of publicly sharing choices, and the perceived importance of choices. Together, these studies show that choice set size shapes perceived self-expression and illustrate how this meaning-based theoretical lens provides both novel explanations for existing effects and novel predictions for future research.
There is no unified theory that can explain both voter choice and where choices come from. Hinich and Munger fill that gap with their model of political communication based on ideology.
Rather than ...beginning with voters and diffuse, atomistic preferences, Hinich and Munger explore why large groups of voters share preference profiles, why they consider themselves "liberals" or "conservatives." The reasons, they argue, lie in the twin problems of communication and commitment that politicians face. Voters, overloaded with information, ignore specific platform positions. Parties and candidates therefore communicate through simple statements of goals, analogies, and by invoking political symbols. But politicians must also commit to pursuing the actions implied by these analogies and symbols. Commitment requires that ideologies be used consistently, particularly when it is not in the party's short-run interest.
The model Hinich and Munger develop accounts for the choices of voters, the goals of politicians, and the interests of contributors. It is an important addition to political science and essential reading for all in that discipline.
"Hinich and Munger's study of ideology and the theory of political choice is a pioneering effort to integrate ideology into formal political theory. It is a major step in directing attention toward the way in which ideology influences the nature of political choices." --Douglass C. North
". . . represents a significant contribution to the literature on elections, voting behavior, and social choice." --Policy Currents
Melvin Hinich is Professor of Government, University of Texas. Michael C. Munger is Associate Professor of Political Science, University of North Carolina.
Many experts believe the transport system is about to change dramatically. This change is due to so-called fully-automated vehicles (AVs). However, at present, there are numerous important knowledge ...gaps that need to be solved for the successful integration of AVs in our transport systems, in particular regarding the impacts of AVs on travel demand. For instance, full automation will enable passengers to perform other, non-driving, related tasks while traveling to their destination. This may substantially change the way in which passengers experience traveling by car, and, in turn, may lead to considerable changes in the so-called Value of Travel Time (VOTT). Many experts anticipate the VOTT to decrease substantially due to AVs. However, the extent to which VOTT will change is currently far from clear. This study aims to develop new insights on the potential impacts of fully automated vehicles on the VOTT for commute trips. To do so, we first look at the existing microeconomics theory on the perceived VOTT and analyze the expected changes accrued from the effect of working and having leisure in an AV. We conclude that the VOTT of a work vehicle should be lower than what is experienced today in a conventional vehicle but the leisure one could stay the same. Then we conduct a stated choice experiment, specifically designed and administered for measuring the VOTT, and analyze these data using discrete choice models (DCMs). In total, we collected data from about 500 respondents. In the experiment, respondents were presented choice tasks consisting of three alternatives: an AV with office interior, an AV with leisure interior, and a conventional car. The same experiment was also given to another sample of respondents but this time describing a chauffeur-driven vehicle. Overall we find the average VOTT for an AV with an office interior (5.50€/h) to be lower than the VOTT for the conventional car (7.47€/h), however the AV with leisure interior is not found to decrease the value of time (8.17€/h) which confirms the theoretical results. The VOTT for the chauffeur experiment is systematically lower than for the AV experiment which we attribute to some distrust that people have regarding the AVs.
Abstract
Predominately Angus steers (n = 24; initial BW = 435 ± 28.3 kg) were used to evaluate non-coated (NC) and coated implants (CI) containing equal amounts of trenbolone acetate (TBA; 200 mg) ...and estradiol benzoate (EB; 28 mg) in finishing steers on sera metabolite responses, gene expression, and immunohistochemical analyses of the Longissimus muscle (LM). Performance data were analyzed as a randomized complete block design, and all other data were analyzed as repeated measures for a completely randomized design. Treatments were no implant (NI), NC (Synovex-PLUS; Zoetis, Parsippany, NJ), and CI (Synovex-One Feedlot) implant. There were 2 pen replicates per treatment (n = 4 steers/pen). LM biopsies, blood, and BW were collected before feeding on days 0, 14, 28, 56, 84, 112, and 133, with final BW being captured on day 140. Genes of interest were determined by RT-qPCR using two housekeeping genes. Sera was analyzed for estradiol-17β (E2),17β-trenbolone (TbOH), insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I), NEFA, and urea-N (SUN). An α of 0.10 determined significance for performance and sera data; α of 0.05 was used for gene and histology data. No performance differences (P ≥ 0.10) were detected. An implant × day interaction (P ≤ 0.10) for E2, IGF-I, and SUN was detected; implants elevated (P ≤ 0.10) E2, 17β-TbOH, and IGF-I; and decreased SUN across day of the study, meaning sera metabolites are not altered with time on feed. An implant × day interaction was detected for myogenic factor 5 (MYF-5) positive cells and proportions of MHCIIX. In LM, CI had greater (P < 0.10) IGF-I in LM over NI. CI increased (P < 0.05) G protein-coupled estrogen receptor 1 (GPER1) expression, as well as, GPER1 semi-quantitative scores over NI and NC. An implant × day interaction (P ≤ 0.05) for estrogen and androgen receptor-positive nuclei was detected; implants had increased (P ≤ 0.05) estrogen and androgen receptor-positive nuclei compared to NI. CIs increase genes associated with muscle tissue growth.
This book, first published in 2005, builds on institutionalist theory in both economics and political science to offer a general political economy framework for the study of welfare capitalism. Based ...on the key idea that social protection in a modern economy, both inside and outside the state, can be understood as protection of specific investments in human capital, the book offers a systematic explanation of popular preferences for redistributive spending, the economic role of political parties and electoral systems, and labor market stratification (including gender inequality). Contrary to the popular idea that competition in the global economy undermines international differences in the level of social protection, the book argues that these differences are made possible by a high international division of labor. Such a division is what allows firms to specialize in production that requires an abundant supply of workers with specific skills, and hence high demand for protection.
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