This paper examines quotations involving predicates like call or refer to that inform the addressee about the name of a lexicalized concept. Quotations of this sort often contain names that are ...accompanied by a determiner, e.g., This phenomenon is called a "sun halo." We claim that name-informing constructions imply an underspecified copular relation which entails a referring interpretation of the name. Crucially, the determiner is optional in name-informing quotations, cf. This phenomenon is called "sun halo." Specifically, our studies aim to determine whether the name in name-informing constructions is perceived as referentially more salient when it is accompanied by a determiner. To test this, three experimental studies were conducted, employing forced-choice tasks, acceptability judgment, and self-paced reading paradigms. Those three experimental methods showed non-significant differences indicating an equivalent behavioral treatment of the two alternatives. Therefore, we conclude that names used in name-informing constructions accompanied by a determiner do not differ referentially from uses not involving a determiner. The data thus suggest that the two realizations of name-informing constructions are semantically equivalent and entail identical semantic features.
Sentences like That’s a beautiful dress you’re wearing are commonly heard in colloquial English. These sentences have a surface form that resembles identificational copular sentences with relative ...clause modifiers (e.g., This is the house I mentioned) and cleft sentences with demonstrative subjects (e.g., That was John that I saw). Ever since Higgins’s (1973) seminal work, English copular sentences have received much attention, but sentences like That’s a beautiful dress you’re wearing have not been part of that discussion. In this squib, I show how these sentences are both similar and dissimilar to identificationals and clefts, and suggest a formal analysis that captures their characteristic properties.
We show that a simple mixing idea allows one to establish a number of explicit formulas for ruin probabilities and related quantities in collective risk models with dependence among claim sizes and ...among claim inter-occurrence times. Examples include compound Poisson risk models with completely monotone marginal claim size distributions that are dependent according to Archimedean survival copulas as well as renewal risk models with dependent inter-occurrence times.
This paper models dependence with switching-parameter copulas to study financial contagion. Using daily returns from five East Asian stock indices during the Asian crisis, and from four Latin ...American stock indices during the Mexican crisis, it finds evidence of changing dependence during periods of turmoil. Increased tail dependence and asymmetry characterize the Asian countries, while symmetry and tail independence describe the Latin American case. Structural breaks in tail dependence are a dimension of the contagion phenomenon. Therefore, the rejection of the correlation breakdown hypothesis should not be considered, without further investigation, as evidence of a stable dependence structure.
The 2012–2018 drought was such an extreme event in the drought-prone area of Northeast Brazil that it triggered a discussion about proactive drought management. This paper aims at understanding the ...causes and consequences of this event and analyzes its frequency. A consecutive sequence of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, at both the decadal and interannual scales, led to this severe and persistent drought. Drought duration and severity were analyzed using run theory at the hydrographic region scale as decision-makers understand impact analysis better at this scale. Copula functions were used to properly model drought joint characteristics as they presented different marginal distributions and an asymmetric behavior. The 2012–2018 drought in Ceará State had the highest mean bivariate return period ever recorded, estimated at 240 years. Considering drought duration and severity simultaneously at the level of the hydrographic regions improves risk assessment. This result advances our understanding of exceptional events. In this sense, the present work proposes the use of this analysis as a tool for proactive drought planning.
Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic, graphical models for representing complex dependency structures. They have many applications in science and engineering. Their particularly powerful variant ...– Non-Parametric BNs – are for the first time implemented as an open-access scriptable code, in the form of a MATLAB toolbox “BANSHEE”.11BANSHEE stands for ‘Bayesian Networks in Scholarly Endeavours’. However, a banshee is also, in Irish folklore, a female spirit whose appearance is a warning about impending death. Bayesian Networks have been extensively used in risk analysis in fields ranging from aviation safety through natural hazards to building fire safety, hence they also warn against possible dangers, somewhat similarly to a banshee. The software allows for quantifying the BN, validating the underlying assumptions of the model, visualizing the network and its corresponding rank correlation matrix, and finally making inference with a BN based on existing or new evidence. We also include in the toolbox, and discuss in the paper, some applied BN models published in most recent scientific literature.
Drought propagation analysis is of great significance to develop reliable drought-resistant schemes. In this study, based on the construction of time-variant meteorological and agricultural drought ...indicators SPI
t
and SSMI
t
through Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) method, the static and dynamic drought propagation time were defined and determined by Five-element Subtraction Set Pair Potential (FSSPP) and Copula function methods. Then, the driving factors resulted in meteorological to agricultural drought propagation were recognized through Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) indicator. And finally, the application results of the proposed approach in Anhui province, China indicated that, (1) the static propagation time of meteorological to agricultural drought process varied within 1 to 4 months, and differed slightly in different seasons. And drought propagation time in spring and summer was noticeably longer than that of autumn and winter. (2) the dynamic drought propagation time presented decreasing trend in winter, spring and summer but displayed slight increasing trend in autumn in Anhui province. On the whole, the research findings are beneficial for theoretical and practical research of drought propagation system.
This paper investigates the dynamics of the co-movement of GCC stock market returns with global oil market uncertainty, using an ARMA-DCC-EGARCH and time varying Student-t copula models. Empirical ...results demonstrate that oil uncertainty has significant and time varying impacts on the GCC stock returns. The GCC stock returns are found to be negatively affected by oil market uncertainty for almost the entire period under examination. More interestingly, we find that the impact of oil price uncertainty differs across GCC member states and allows for grouping. The results also show that the stock markets of Oman and Bahrain are relatively less sensitive to the oil uncertainty factor, thus offering investors and portfolio managers different investment options and portfolio diversification opportunities across GCC members.
•This paper investigates the dynamics of the co-movement of GCC stock market returns with global oil market uncertainty, using an ARMA-DCC-EGARCH and time varying Student-t copula models.•Empirical results demonstrate that oil uncertainty has significant and time varying impacts on the GCC stock returns.•The GCC stock returns are found to be negatively affected by oil market uncertainty for almost the entire period under examination.•More interestingly, we find that the impact of oil price uncertainty differs across GCC member states and allow for grouping.•Differing dependence on oil price uncertainty offers portfolio diversification opportunities across GCC members.
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