From Alipay’s QR codes to PayPal, it’s never been easier to move money around. Central banks are even considering their own digital currencies. And all that cross-border cashlessness has some ...wondering about the dollar’s international dominance. On this week’s podcast, hosts Mike Bird and Tom Lee-Devlin examine the risks to the world’s reserve currency. The Economist’s Arjun Ramani explains how far digital payments have come; Mairead McGuinness, European Commissioner for financial services, discusses ambitions for a digital euro; and Michael Pettis from Peking University explains the costs inherent in hosting a reserve currency. We would love to hear from you. Please fill out our listener survey at economist.com/moneytalkssurveySign up for our new weekly newsletter dissecting the big themes in markets, business and the economy at www.economist.com/moneytalks For full access to print, digital and audio editions, subscribe to The Economist at www.economist.com/podcastoffer Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
We explore the major driving forces for currency invoicing in international trade with a simple model and a novel dataset covering 24 countries. We contrasts a “coalescing” effect, where exporters ...minimize the movements of their prices relative to their competitors', with incentives to hedge macroeconomic volatility and transaction costs. The key determinants of invoice currency choice are industry features and country size, with some role for foreign-exchange bid–ask spreads. The coalescing effect also goes a long way to explaining the well-known dominance of the dollar. Trade flows to the United States are predominantly invoiced in dollar, as foreign exporters face competition with U.S. firms. The use of the dollar in trade flows that do not involve the United States reflects trade in homogeneous products where firms need to keep their price in line with their competitors'.
Writing in the June 1965 issue of theEconomic Journal, Harry G. Johnson begins with a sentence seemingly calibrated to the scale of the book he set himself to review: "The long-awaited monetary ...history of the United States by Friedman and Schwartz is in every sense of the term a monumental scholarly achievement--monumental in its sheer bulk, monumental in the definitiveness of its treatment of innumerable issues, large and small . . . monumental, above all, in the theoretical and statistical effort and ingenuity that have been brought to bear on the solution of complex and subtle economic issues."
Friedman and Schwartz marshaled massive historical data and sharp analytics to support the claim that monetary policy--steady control of the money supply--matters profoundly in the management of the nation's economy, especially in navigating serious economic fluctuations. In their influential chapter 7,The Great Contraction--which Princeton published in 1965 as a separate paperback--they address the central economic event of the century, the Depression. According to Hugh Rockoff, writing in January 1965: "If Great Depressions could be prevented through timely actions by the monetary authority (or by a monetary rule), as Friedman and Schwartz had contended, then the case for market economies was measurably stronger."
Milton Friedman won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2000 for work related toA Monetary Historyas well as to his other Princeton University Press book,A Theory of the Consumption Function(1957).
We examine the ability of existing and new factor models to explain the comovements of G10 currency changes, measured using “currency baskets.” A clustering technique reveals a clear two-block ...structure in currency comovements, with the first block containing mostly the dollar currencies and the other the European currencies. A factor model incorporating this “clustering” factor and two additional factors, a commodity currency factor and a “world” factor based on trading volumes, fits currency basket correlations much better than extant factors, such as value and carry, do. In particular, it explains on average about 60% of currency variation and generates a root mean squared error relative to sample correlations of only 0.11. The model also fits comovements in emerging market currencies well. Economically, the correlations between currency baskets underlying the factor structure are inversely related to the physical distances between countries.
This paper was accepted by Kay Giesecke, finance.
•Supplier selection with multiple buyers, currency fluctuation uncertainty, and discounts.•High value of the stochastic solution compared to its deterministic counterpart.•Ignoring the currency ...uncertainty in supplier selection may lead to inadequate decisions.•Significant gain in case of global discounts rather than local discounts.
Suppliers network in the global context under price discounts and uncertain fluctuations of currency exchange rates have become critical in today’s world economy. We study the problem of suppliers’ selection in the presence of uncertain fluctuations of currency exchange rates and price discounts. We specifically consider a buyer with multiple sites sourcing a product from heterogeneous suppliers and address both the supplier selection and purchased quantity decision. Suppliers are located worldwide and pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Exchange rates from the local currencies of suppliers to the standard currency of the buyer are subject to uncertain fluctuations overtime. In addition, suppliers offer discounts as a function of the total quantity bought by the different customer’ sites over the time horizon irrespective of the quantity purchased by each site.
We first provide a literature review on the overlapping items of suppliers’ selection and risk due to currency. Then, we model the problem using the mixed integer scenario-based stochastic programming method. The objective is to minimize the total system expected cost (purchased price+inventory cost+transportation cost+supplier management cost). Finally, we conduct numerical studies to show the value of the proposed model and we discuss some relevant managerial insights into the theory and practice of supply chain management research.
In the late nineteenth century, as much of the world adopted some variant of the gold standard, China remained the most populous country still using silver. Yet China had no unified national ...currency; there was not one monetary standard but many. Silver coins circulated alongside chunks of silver and every transaction became an "encounter of wits." China and the End of Global Silver, 1873–1937 focuses on how officials, policy makers, bankers, merchants, academics, and journalists in China and around the world answered a simple question: how should China change its monetary system? Far from a narrow, technical issue, Chinese monetary reform is a dramatic story full of political revolutions, economic depressions, chance, and contingency. As different governments in China attempted to create a unified monetary standard in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, the United States, England, and Japan tried to shape the direction of Chinese monetary reform for their own benefit. Austin Dean argues convincingly that the Silver Era in world history ended owing to the interaction of imperial competition in East Asia and the state-building projects of different governments in China. When the Nationalist government of China went off the silver standard in 1935, it marked a key moment not just in Chinese history but in world history.
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