We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods that incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coefficients to change ...over time, but also allow for the entire forecasting model to change over time. We find that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coefficient models. We also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period.
Despite the importance of diabetes for global health, the future economic consequences of the disease remain opaque. We forecast the full global costs of diabetes in adults through the year 2030 and ...predict the economic consequences of diabetes if global targets under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases 2013-2020 are met.
We modeled the absolute and gross domestic product (GDP)-relative economic burden of diabetes in individuals aged 20-79 years using epidemiological and demographic data, as well as recent GDP forecasts for 180 countries. We assumed three scenarios: prevalence and mortality
) increased only with urbanization and population aging (baseline scenario),
) increased in line with previous trends (past trends scenario), and
) achieved global targets (target scenario).
The absolute global economic burden will increase from U.S. $1.3 trillion (95% CI 1.3-1.4) in 2015 to $2.2 trillion (2.2-2.3) in the baseline, $2.5 trillion (2.4-2.6) in the past trends, and $2.1 trillion (2.1-2.2) in the target scenarios by 2030. This translates to an increase in costs as a share of global GDP from 1.8% (1.7-1.9) in 2015 to a maximum of 2.2% (2.1-2.2).
The global costs of diabetes and its consequences are large and will substantially increase by 2030. Even if countries meet international targets, the global economic burden will not decrease. Policy makers need to take urgent action to prepare health and social security systems to mitigate the effects of diabetes.
Energy consumption is an important issue of global concern. Accurate energy consumption forecasting can help balance energy demand and energy production. Although there are various energy consumption ...forecasting methods, the forecasting accuracy still needs to be improved. This study applied a long short-term memory-based model in energy consumption forecasting to achieve a better prediction performance and the more critical influencing factors are emphasized. Results of one comparative example and two extended applications show the proposed model achieves better prediction accuracy compared with basic long short-term memory and other existing popular models. Mean absolute percentage errors of the proposed model for three real-life cases are 4.01 %, 5.37 %, and 1.60 %, respectively. Therefore, the proposed model is a satisfactory method for energy consumption forecasting due to its high accuracy. The high-precision forecasting technology is important for the energy systems.
•The study focuses on multifactor-influenced energy consumption forecasting problem.•Impacts of influencing factors are analyzed by attention-based method.•A long short-term memory-based model is used to achieve better forecasting accuracy.•Mean absolute percentage errors for three real-life cases are below 6 %.•Role of producer price index or crude oil imports is significant.
Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on rural America Mueller, J Tom; McConnell, Kathryn; Burow, Paul Berne ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
01/2021, Letnik:
118, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Despite considerable social scientific attention to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on urbanized areas, very little research has examined its impact on rural populations. Yet rural ...communities-which make up tens of millions of people from diverse backgrounds in the United States-are among the nation's most vulnerable populations and may be less resilient to the effects of such a large-scale exogenous shock. We address this critical knowledge gap with data from a new survey designed to assess the impacts of the pandemic on health-related and economic dimensions of rural well-being in the North American West. Notably, we find that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on rural populations have been severe, with significant negative impacts on unemployment, overall life satisfaction, mental health, and economic outlook. Further, we find that these impacts have been generally consistent across age, ethnicity, education, and sex. We discuss how these findings constitute the beginning of a much larger interdisciplinary COVID-19 research effort that integrates rural areas and pushes beyond the predominant focus on cities and nation-states.
The booming of floating PV Cazzaniga, Raniero; Rosa-Clot, Marco
Solar energy,
05/2021, Letnik:
219
Journal Article
Recenzirano
•The floating PV plants (FPV) are an emerging technology and the FPV installed power doubles every year.•This is due to their efficiency and low cost but mainly to the fact that no land is occupied ...by these plants.•This booming will be limited in the next few years and the paper discuss what will be the growth rate.•The quick increase of this sector will further promote the renewable energy sources.•Forecast to 2030 is discussed in detail.
The global trend of electric energy production is analysed with a forecast up to 2030. The current status of the Floating PV is discussed, taking into account data up to 2019. The growth rate for the main renewable energy sectors is analysed and on this basis a naïve exponential forecast up to 2030 is given. Corrections to this forecast are discussed and the value for the installed FPV plants in 2030 is suggested.
Wavelet transform (WT), as a data preprocessing algorithm, has been widely applied in electricity price forecasting. However, this deterministic-based algorithm does not present stable performance ...owing to the experiential selection of its orders and layers. For determining the selection of WT’s orders and layers in U.S. electricity prices forecasting, this paper designs a crossover experiment with 240 schemes of WT parameter selection and forecasts each scheme with stacked autoencoder (SAE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), generating a novel hybrid model WT-SAE-LSTM. The results show that the proposed model outperforms other AI models, such as back propagation neural network et al., in forecasting accuracy. The best performance of WT-SAE-LSTM in residential, commercial, and industrial electricity price cases obtained by five order four layers, five order four layers, and four order seven layers, where the MAPE is 0.8606%, 0.4719%, and 0.4956%, respectively. Additionally, the difference between the proposed forecasting model and the forecasting result of Energy Information Administration (U.S.) is small. This paper determines the optimal orders and layers of WT in U.S. electricity prices forecasting, which provides an effective reference for the application of WT in other forecasting scenarios and for electricity market participants.
•WT-SAE-LSTM is proposed to forecast electricity prices of U.S.•SAE-LSTM has better forecasting accuracy.•The optimal wavelet’s orders and layers are determined.•WT-SAE-LSTM has practical application value.
Increasingly, researchers and policy makers across the globe explore the transformative role of entrepreneurshlp In the development process. What remains relatively under Interrogated In this process ...Is the Issue of entrepreneurial Intentions within the Caribbean region. Where entrepreneurial Intentions play a pivotal role In future entrepreneurial activity, this area of research can provide useful Insights for development policy and practice. Considering the above, three main objectives guide this paper. Firstly, we comparatively examine the entrepreneurial Intentions drawn from adult populations across Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. Secondly, we assess the relative Importance of entrepreneurial skills, knowledge, and opportunity to entrepreneurial Intentions. Thirdly, we also explore for possible soclodemographlc variations (specifically based on sex, age, level of educational attainment, and type of current profession or career) In the levels of entrepreneurial Intentions. To do this, we utilize available raw data from the Global Entrepreneurshlp Monitor (GEM) survey for the Caribbean countries. We use this data set to test for the relative significance of key antecedent variables for understanding entrepreneurial Intentions. Point to variability In the relationship between attltudlnal factors, soclo-demographlc backgrounds, and entrepreneurial Intentions between countries In the study. Implications for a more contextuallzed theorlzatlons of entrepreneurial Intentions are discussed.
- Editorial: Deploy effective fiscal initiatives and promote inclusive trade policies to escape from the low-growth trap - General assessment of the macroeconomic situation - Using the fiscal levers ...to escape the low-growth trap - Argentina - Australia - Austria - Belgium - Brazil - Canada - Chile - China - Colombia - Costa Rica - Czech Republic - Denmark - Estonia - Euro area - Finland - France - Germany - Greece - Hungary - Iceland - India - Indonesia - Ireland - Israel - Italy - Japan - Korea - Latvia - Lithuania - Luxembourg - Mexico - Netherlands - New Zealand - Norway - Poland - Portugal - Russia - Slovak Republic - Slovenia - South Africa - Spain - Sweden - Switzerland - Turkey - United Kingdom - United States - Statistical Annex.
...the International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, forecasting a dramatic slow down in global economic growth due to the epidemic, announced the creation of $50 billion worth ...of funds to support low-income and emerging market countries in the response to COVID-19. ...there is even less funding for professional communications staffing at WHO, the various Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Africa, Europe, North America, and Asia, or their counterpart offices nested in local departments of public health. Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images If governments, agencies, and health organisations want people at risk of infection to respond to COVID-19 with an appropriate level of alert, to cooperate with health authorities, and to act with compassion and humanity, I believe that they must be willing to fund their messengers on an unprecedented scale, with genuine urgency. Getting ahead of COVID-19 requires not only slowing its spread, adequate funding for the health response, supporting research to advance our knowledge of it, integrated actions to mitigate the health, economic, and social impacts of the epidemic, among others, but also control of narratives regarding its scientific and clinical attributes and pandemic containment efforts—an effort that I do not think can be successful if executed on inadequate budgets by sleep-deprived communicators. Wall Street and the rest of the stock investment world are trying to calm markets, only to witness ongoing financial turmoil and huge stock market falls.
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