El registro simultáneo de superávit público y déficit por cuenta corriente en una economía nacional podría estar relacionado con un fuerte apalancamiento privado que suele terminar en crisis ...financiera, lo que haría insostenible el superávit público. El objetivo de este trabajo es comprobar en qué medida esta afirmación está respaldada empíricamente. Los resultados revelan que, en efecto, la concurrencia de superávits públicos y déficits por cuenta corriente está asociada a procesos de apalancamiento privado y crisis financieras. Estos resultados cuestionan el diseño de las reglas fiscales vigentes ya que no prestan atención al saldo de la cuenta corriente.
Time is considered as production resource, which determines the need for its effective use in connection with other production resources. The problem consists in the inconsistency of the results of ...the existing forecasting system of production which are founded on modern concepts of space and time. The theoretical positions of Galilean, A. Lorentz and G. Minkowski were analyzed. A. Einstein’s explanations regarding the use of the velocity of light in vacuum as a constant in the well-known dependency for the generalized four-dimensional space were studied. An attempt is made to solve the applied problem in space and time, taking as a constant, for example, standard or maximum possible, (calculated) productivity.
Financial markets respond to information virtually instantaneously. Each new piece of information influences the prices of assets and their correlations with each other, and as the system rapidly ...changes, so too do correlation forecasts. This fast-evolving environment presents econometricians with the challenge of forecasting dynamic correlations, which are essential inputs to risk measurement, portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and many other critical financial activities. In Anticipating Correlations, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Engle introduces an important new method for estimating correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). Engle demonstrates the role of correlations in financial decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other measures of dependence. He compares DCC with other correlation estimators such as historical correlation, exponential smoothing, and multivariate GARCH, and he presents a range of important applications of DCC. Engle presents the asymmetric model and illustrates it using a multicountry equity and bond return model. He introduces the new FACTOR DCC model that blends factor models with the DCC to produce a model with the best features of both, and illustrates it using an array of U.S. large-cap equities. Engle shows how overinvestment in collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, lies at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis--and how the correlation models in this book could have foreseen the risks. A technical chapter of econometric results also is included.
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies ...the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to US and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.
The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a regular publication on regional economic growth and development in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of the ...Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant economic issues in China and India to fully reflect developments in the region. This Update presents the region's economic outlook, depicting rapidly changing trends and macroeconomic challenges amidst external headwinds.
Samenvatting In dit artikel doen we verslag van de impact van de macro-economische veranderingen op de jaarrekening van ondernemingen die zijn opgenomen in de Euro Stoxx 50-index. De hoge inflatie en ...stijgende rentes raken de jaarrekening op meerdere gebieden. Dit is zichtbaar in veel jaarrekeningen. De informatieverschaffing over de impact van de toenemende volatiliteit op risico's en schattingsonzekerheden blijft echter achter. Slechts in uitzonderlijke gevallen laten ondernemingen in 2022 zien wat de impact is van grotere schommelingen in bijvoorbeeld rentes en wisselkoersen op de resultaten door de sensitiviteitsanalyses aan te passen ten opzichte van 2021. Veelal liggen de gehanteerde percentages voor de sensitiviteitsanalyses (beduidend) lager dan de in 2022 werkelijk waargenomen volatiliteit. Op dit punt kunnen ondernemingen de informatieverschaffing aan gebruikers verbeteren. Keywords: Inflatie, stijgende rente, hyperinflatie
Exchange Rate Predictability Rossi, Barbara
Journal of economic literature,
12/2013, Letnik:
51, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables? It is well known that exchange rate fluctuations are very ...difficult to predict using economic models, and that a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (the Meese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article provides a critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustrates the new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and the data suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is, "It depends"—on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, and forecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of the following hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is the random walk without drift.
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