Stan is a free and open-source C++ program that performs Bayesian inference or optimization for arbitrary user-specified models and can be called from the command line, R, Python, Matlab, or Julia ...and has great promise for fitting large and complex statistical models in many areas of application. We discuss Stan from users 'and developers' perspectives and illustrate with a simple but nontrivial nonlinear regression example.
Abstract This paper characterises the Laffer curve of each individual taxpayer in a schedular multi-rate income tax with income shifting. Analytical expressions for the revenue-maximising tax rate ...and the revenue-maximising elasticity are provided for the individual taxpayer and the aggregate population, as well as new estimates of the Elasticity of Taxable Income. Applying these to the Spanish income tax demonstrates that 44.72% (58.49%) of the taxpaying population in the non-savings tax base (savings tax base) is on the “normal” side of the Laffer curve. On average, these taxpayers are 6.59 points (24.73 points) above (below) the maximum of the Laffer curve. The fraction of total tax revenue lost through behavioural responses amounts to 53.77%. However, this fraction varies by population subgroup and decreases when we account for income-shifting responses, suggesting the presence of fiscal externalities in the Spanish PIT.
We develop a tractable method for augmenting macroeconomic models with autonomous variation in higher-order beliefs. We use this to accommodate a certain type of waves of optimism and pessimism that ...can be interpreted as the product of frictional coordination and, unlike the one featured in the news literature, regards the shortterm economic outlook rather than the medium- to long-run prospects. We show that this enrichment provides a parsimonious explanation of salient features of the data; it accounts for a significant fraction of the business-cycle volatility in estimated models that allow for various competing structural shocks; and it captures a type of fluctuations that have a Keynesian flavor but do not rely on nominal rigidities.
Abstract We investigate the role of local amenities in shaping compensating wage differentials in labor market populated by high-skilled workers. Using 10 years of longitudinal data on workers ...productivity along with information on firms and location amenities, we evaluate whether workers are willing to pay to join a better firm and if firms with undesirable attributes must provide higher wages to attract workers. By accounting for unobserved workers heterogeneity, we show that superstars receive positive wage differentials for lower location amenities as well as riskier employments.
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