This paper employs the mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) to discuss the causal link between crude oil dependence and military expenditure in China. The empirical results demonstrate that ...the crude oil dependence Granger causes military expenditure and accounts for 66.8% of the long-run forecast error variance decomposition. That means the MF-VAR model owns stronger explanatory and asymptotic powers than conventional VAR with single frequency data. Besides, the impulse-response analysis finds time varying relationship between crude oil dependence and military expenditure across four quarters within one year period. Therefore, the Chinese People's Liberation Army, especially its Navy, is needed to take responsibility and active activities to assure crude oil transport security. Government, enterprises and institutes should increase investment in military innovation to promote the upgrading of weapons and equipment. The peaceful rise strategy should be reasserted to construct harmonious international relations, which is helpful for crude oil security, foreign energy investment and reduce unnecessary military expenditure.
•Crude oil dependence is raising quickly for China.•The causal link between crude oil dependence and military expenditure is discussed.•The MF-VAF owns better explanatory power than LF-VAR.•The impulse-response finds time-varying relation across different quarters.•Important policy implications are provided for Chinese military strategy.
Do alliances allow states to share defense burdens and reduce military spending? Despite expectations that alliances should lead to decreased military spending, the empirical record offers mixed ...findings. We argue that not all alliances are reliable; thus, only allies that receive signals of reassurance will rely on the external security of allies and subsequently reduce their military spending. Compared to states that do not receive additional signals, these reassured allies will have greater confidence that an ally will come to their aid. As a result, third-party aggressors are deterred and the demand for military spending will decrease. We test this argument with an analysis of US signals of support, alliance commitments, and military spending. We find that American alliances without additional signals of support have a negligible effect on military spending. Yet, we observe that alliances are negatively associated with military spending when signals of support are present. Additional tests indicate that alliance commitments, coupled with strong US signals, are also associated with lower military spending in the rivals of US allies. Our results potentially help explain the mixed evidence in the arms-versus-allies and burden-sharing literatures and further demonstrate that extra-alliance signals play an important role in the practice of International Relations.
El presente artículo pretende estudiar el gasto bélico en la Edad Media y los condicionantes que determinaban su estructura y aplicación. A partir de un caso de estudio concreto, la Guerra de los Dos ...Pedros, y de un escenario particular, el reino de Valencia a mediados del siglo XIV, este estudio analiza todas las partidas que constituían el gasto bélico, ofreciendo estimaciones y analizando su estructura para determinar las implicaciones de su principal condicionante, su control por la nobleza.
This study assesses the importance of military expenditure in moderating the role of insecurity dynamics on tourist arrivals or international tourism in 163 countries. It is framed to assess how the ...future of international tourism can be improved when military expenditure is used as a tool to mitigate perceived and real security risks that potentially reduce international tourists’ arrivals. The empirical evidence is based on Negative binomial regressions. The following main findings are established. Military expenditure significantly moderates violent crimes and perception of criminality to induce a favorable net impact on international tourist arrivals. The corresponding net effect is insignificant and negative for insecurity dynamics of “access to weapons” and “political instability”, respectively. An extended analysis is performed to assess thresholds at which political instability can be moderated for the desired net effect. This threshold is the critical mass at which the unconditional negative impact from political instability is neutralized with military expenditure. Policy implications are discussed.
Meta analysis is conducted to review 32 empirical studies with 169 estimates of the effect of military expenditure on economic growth. We formulate four hypotheses to examine the empirical evidence ...and to provide overall conclusions while controlling for systematic heterogeneity in the studies reviewed. The hypotheses are: (H1) Military expenditure reduces economic growth; (H2) Military expenditure is detrimental to economic growth in less developed countries (LDCs); (H3) The effect of military expenditure on economic growth is positive and (H4) The effect of military expenditure on economic growth is non-linear. We find that the hypothesis of a negative military expenditure–growth relationship is not supported for both LDCs and in general, while a positive effect of military expenditure on economic growth is supported for developed countries. The hypothesis of a non-linear military expenditure–growth relationship is confirmed. The main sources of study-to-study variation in the findings of military expenditure and economic growth literature are attributable to the sample, time periods, and functional forms.
► The effect of military expenditure on economic growth is practically insignificant. ► The military expenditure–growth nexus is non-linear. ► Data and time-periods also contribute to the variations in the findings. ► The effect of military expenditure on growth is insignificant for LDC. ► The effect of military expenditure on growth is positive for developed countries.
We investigate the role of military expenditure on emission in USA during the period 1960–2015. To achieve the objectives of this study, two measures of military expenditure are utilised, while ...several timeseries models are constructed with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population, energy consumption per capita, non-renewable energy consumption per capita, renewable energy consumption per capita, urbanisation, trade openness and financial development serving as additional determinants of air pollution. We also use ecological indicator as an alternative measure of pollution. Moreover, different timeseries methods are utilised including a likelihood-based approach with two structural breaks. The output of this research concluded that all the variables are cointegrated. It is found that military expenditure has mixed impact on CO
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emissions. Real GDP per capita, energy consumption per capita, non-renewable energy consumption per capita, population and urbanisation increase CO
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emissions per capita in the long-run, while renewable energy consumption, financial development and trade openness reduce it. There is also evidence for the mixed role of military expenditure, when ecological footprint is utilised as the environmental degradation index. From the output of this research, few policy recommendations are offered for the examined country.
Across African countries, terrorism has become a major challenge to socioeconomic development. While there are studies that have examined the influence of terrorism on economic growth, this study ...adds to the existing literature by investigating the role of military expenditure on the relationship between terrorism and economic growth in Africa. The study utilised a dataset comprising 24 African countries for which terrorism activities have increased substantially in the last decades. Utilising an instrumental variable Fixed Effects model with standard errors that account for cross-sectional dependence, serial correlation and group-wise heteroskedasticity, the study revealed that, (1) terrorism has a detrimental effect on economic growth in the selected African countries, (2) the interactive effect of military expenditure and terrorism on economic growth is significantly positive, (3) the net effect of military expenditure on the relationship between terrorism and economic growth is positive when the number of terrorism incidents act as a proxy for terrorism but negative when the number of terrorism fatalities acts as a proxy for terrorism. However, this negative effect is substantially lower when compared to the unconditional effect of terrorism on economic growth in Africa. Policy recommendations based on these findings are discussed.
Countries with different democratic levels tend to show various degrees of emphasis on military expenditure and a consensus can hardly be reached on the economic effect of democracy and military ...expenditure. By applying a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach, this article examines the potential dynamic and endogenous relationships among democracy, military expenditure and economic growth of 126 countries from 1990 to 2020. Furthermore, the k-means clustering algorithm is employed to account for the heterogeneous interaction between democracy and military expenditure in different countries. The empirical results reveal that the strong positive impact of democracy and the negative effect of military spending on economic growth exists in the full sample and the cluster of countries with low democratic levels and a high military burden. For democratic countries with low military expenditure, there is a more significant and negative impact both of military expenditure on democracy and vice versa.
Feminist scholars have long argued that militarism and patriarchy are linked. To date, however, the relationship between militarization and gender inequality has not been empirically tested. Using ...the Gender Inequality Index and the Global Militarization Index for the period of 1990-2017 for 133 countries, we put the spotlight on militarization to show how it reflects and contributes to gender inequality (in terms of health, education, political representation, and labor force participation). Our article shows that higher militarization is significantly correlated with higher gender inequality, controlling for major variables such as the military in politics, the proportion of parliamentary seats held by women, conflict, democracy level, and regime type. Among other results, we find that higher representation of women in parliament correlates with less military spending. The results are significant in the case of Muslim majority countries and MENA countries, and with respect to countries with different income levels.
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